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We're far from the November election and I've been thinking for some time that what happens before September almost doesn't matter much and that polls certainly don't have much to say at this point. I also think that events we might not even be imagining at this point could, at any time between now and election day, turn the race on its head.
That being said... I see something in the latest poll numbers that I think stands by itself as notable: Obama's favorability ratings are remaining high while Romney's stay low. Obama's favorability is at almost 50% while Romney's is at 38%. At the same time the overall numbers show Obama beating Romney (again, overall country numbers) by a shrinking number -- only 2 percentage points today.
This says to me people who look upon Romney unfavorably are willing to vote for him anyway. Put another way, those who look upon Obama favorably are willing to vote against him. This apparent fact is the key to Romney's campaign. This is the narrative that he put forward when he declared his nomination: "Obama is a like-able fellow, but just not up to the job."
The weak job numbers today can be interpreted to underscore this narrative. When Obama's lead in 2 swing states (FL and OH) has been erased during the same week he has been able to tout his brilliant leadership that led to OBL's killing, it says to me that it really is all about the economy. Everything else at this point is a distraction - even killing Bin Laden.
As long as job numbers are as weak as they are, Romney has the advantage in this election and nothing Obama does will change that. People don't care about Romney's dog, they don't care about his flip-flops, they don't care about his support of the "personhood" amendment (He'll wiggle out of that soon ,I'm sure); they don't care about Obama's character and Romney's lack thereof; they don't care about Willard's support of the radical right's budget. People outside the auto industry may not even care that Obama saved that entire industry. They may not care that Romney supports policies for the 1% . They may not care that he is a lying, opportunistic clod who stands for nothing but his own ambition and is now paid for by the 1% and the extreme right wing.
People looking for someone to "fix" the economy can easily convince themselves that he was "moderate in Massachusetts" so how bad can he be in Washington?
People could discount his insensitive and out-of-touch gaffes. They could discount his pandering to the extreme right with their anti-gay and anti-woman agenda. They could discount his taking the Grover Norquist pledge and his etch-a-sketch pivots and lies about Obama. They could ignore his neo-con foreign policy advisers who want to go to war with Iran and return to the hyper-machismo, Bush-Cheney stance in the world. They could discount everything about him because he promises to fix the economy and Obama has not. They may not like him... but they don't have to!
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