MSNBC Calling it for Clinton

youth vote? (0.00 / 0)

I don't see any number for Hanover, Durham, Lebanon?

Are those in yet?

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 21:52:20 PM CST

It's not just youth vote. (4.00 / 1)

It's also college prof vote, and "people who like to live in a tweed jacket area" vote.

AP thinks it won't be enough...

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by: elwood @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 21:54:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

My style (4.00 / 1)

Ivy Levy

"Poetry is not an expression of the party line. It's that time of night, lying in bed, thinking what you really think, making the private world public, that's what the poet does." Allen Ginsberg

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:26:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Hopefully. The Clinton Campaign Will CHANGE (4.00 / 2)

Hopefully Mark Penn and some others don't stick around, or at least don't direct the campaign.  She just pulled this one out, if her margin holds.  She needs to reinvent her campaign, and they need to Let Hillary Be Hillary, as I think we began to see these past 48 hours.

Forget the focus-groups, answers based on polls, and cute politically-correct positions that are so vague.  She can be a great President, but her campaign has to be of a higher standard than we saw the past three or four months.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 21:56:17 PM CST

Yes! (0.00 / 0)

For example, in the flurry of the pre-primary madness, there was so much going on that I never got around to addressing the "Gordon Brown" statement that could have come straight from Dick Cheney.  Normally I'd be fuming about something like that for a week, and it's clear that's a consultant-driven attack.

Yours is the best advice of the campaign - when I see Hillary be Hillary, like in the Keene Sentinel interviews, she shines.

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by: Dean Barker @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:00:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

JIm (0.00 / 0)

I'd love to hear your take on the "Choice" and "Trillion Dollar Tax" mailers.  

Hope > Fear



Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.

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by: Mike Hoefer @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 07:34:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes WE Can! (0.00 / 0)

Wow, Barack Obama is the smartest, most inspiring politician in my lifetime.

Best concession speech ever.  It's not a campaign, it's a movement.

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:10:50 PM CST

fingers crossed the rest of the country responds (0.00 / 0)

I really am surprised at the amount of support Hillary has.  Barack can win 50 states, I really don't think Hillary can come close.  I don't like to base my choice off other peoples agendas, but there are still way too many people who would never vote for her.  Why would we nominate a candidate who is guaranteed to drive people away from the party?

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by: mikes @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:32:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Obama up by 1,500 in Hanover (0.00 / 0)

No results fro UNH or Plymouth.  

Politizine.com

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by: Tony Schinella @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:16:13 PM CST

Durham: 500-plus up for Obama (0.00 / 0)

Not enough.  

Politizine.com

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by: Tony Schinella @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:34:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Published? (0.00 / 0)

Are these online somewhere?

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by: BTB @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:50:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't really see a reversal of fortunes at all... (0.00 / 0)

Hillary was expected to win by 10 points for a long time.  It was only in the last 5 days that polls were showing that she might loose.

So, we see a failure of polls - or a change in turnout - but I think she had strong support with the voters all along.  Maybe not the press, but the voters.

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:34:01 PM CST

Bresler and Pundits Eat Crow (0.00 / 0)

Not only was I wrong, I was way wrong about the race.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
Fineman: Hillary lives
New Hampshire win a surprise for some columnists, but not for voters
By Howard Fineman
MSNBC
updated 10:52 p.m. ET, Tues., Jan. 8, 2008

NEW YORK - I wrote a piece the other day about the apparent implosion of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in New Hampshire.

My editors asked me to put a "new top" on my piece once the results were in. Unless, of course, I was wrong, in which case I would go immediately to Plan B.

This is Plan B.

Is this a great country or what? Voters actually decide things!

And what the Democratic and independent voters said in New Hampshire is that they want the conversation about their choice for the presidency to begin, not end.

Hillary Clinton has won the primary.

There will be no immediate coronation of Sen. Barack Obama. Hillary lives, to say the least. So, by the way, does former Sen. John Edwards.

Just 48 hours ago, it seemed like the Obama wave was going to crest over New Hampshire. Several polls projected he would win the Democratic primary - and with that victory, he would come close to locking up the nomination. Top Clinton supporters were saying the same thing, looking for ways to abandon the senator from New York and embrace the one from Illinois.

Here's what I think happened on the way to the New Hampshire coronation...

I worked my guts out for Edwards for the last while, supported him for 6 years. I'll go to work tomorrow like always.
"I'll be fine"

"Poetry is not an expression of the party line. It's that time of night, lying in bed, thinking what you really think, making the private world public, that's what the poet does." Allen Ginsberg

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 22:36:23 PM CST

pundit-land (4.00 / 1)

The talking heads seem to think Clinton win was based on two things:

Either NH didn't want to vote for a black man.
OR
Women came out to support Hillary because of the crying.

Does that strike anyone else as crazy?  Couldn't it just be about issues?

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 23:09:11 PM CST

Crying????? (0.00 / 0)

She became a bit tearful and her voiced quivered some....CRYING????  Ever see our President when he talks with families who have lost a family member in battle????  I see NO criticism of his actual tears rolling down his cheeks.  And as much as I think he is the most destructive President we have ever had, I do not doubt the authenticity of HIS tears in the situation I described.  

SEXISM continues...and perhaps all the similar exagerations expressed in the press over her so called tears IS what ired enough women to change their votes.  Many of us women see others in touch with their feelings as a STRENGTH....REAL CHARACTER STRENGTH!  

 

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by: Accountability in Government @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:02:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

ummm.. (4.00 / 1)

That's the point - that people might have voted for her because she became tearful.

At any rate - it should be obvious to any of us that Sen. Clinton would not 'become tearful' unless she meant to.

She played that very, very well.

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:15:34 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Listening to NPR (0.00 / 0)

It seems that the female voters reacted personally to the recent criticisms of Hillary.
It's a shame that women might vote along gender lines rather than policy lines.
We'll see if that plays out.

Obsessed is just a word the lazy use to describe the dedicated.

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by: Justin Credible @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 13:46:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It looks like (0.00 / 0)

Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all won delegates, right?

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 23:55:11 PM CST

Obama and Clinton (0.00 / 0)

won the same exact number of delegates, right?

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 23:59:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think so... (0.00 / 0)

They both got 15% "twice", but delegates might not be allocated as nicely as one might imagine... I don't know for sure how delegate allocation works. It looks like a Clinton/Obama tie.

This should put Obama in the overall delegate lead, after Iowa (although, I don't know how delegate allocation works there, either). And it puts him in the same place in the NH primary as Bill Clinton was in 1992.

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:10:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes, they both get 9 (0.00 / 0)

It's being reported that the election is essentially a tie between Obama and Hillary - they both get 9 delegates from the results.

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:16:37 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I just realized I said (0.00 / 0)

"same place in the NH primary as Bill Clinton" in 1992, but I realized, I don't know the difference in the votes in 1992 or how delegate allocation turned out...

So maybe that should be ignored as possibly an understatement.

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:23:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Edwards gets 4n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: hannah @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 04:42:19 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Unknown (4.00 / 3)

I cannot allocate delegates until I get certified totals released by the Secretary of State's office by congressional district.

In order to be eligible to receive delegates a candidate needs to receive 15% or more PER congressional district.

Each candidate selected a slate of seven delegate candidates per congressional district in order of votes obtained at the December 15th slating caucuses.

So it is important to keep in mind that a candidate could get 17% of the vote statewide but only obtain one delegate if in District one they receive 20% of the vote but in district two receives 13%.

And the second tier selection in late April is based on the results of the primary for those candidates still a candidate on the date of the April meeting. So, if a candidate officially drops out they lose their allocation and I have to re-allocate the numbers for the eight delegates selected in April.

NH Super delegates:

NH has seven super delegates, here is the breakdown as of today:

Obama = 3
Hillary = 2
Uncom. = 2

Obama = Clark, Hodes, CSP
Hillary = DiGangi and Freedman
Uncom. = Lynch, Buckley  

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 04:56:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ray, I know you're a superdelegate, so I'm curious (0.00 / 0)

Are you planning to reveal your choice at the convention, or vote for whomever is the presumptive nominee, or vote for the candidate who won New Hampshire, or what?

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 08:21:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Nominee (4.00 / 1)

I will wait until the nominee is clear.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:10:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I respect that; it makes the most sense. (0.00 / 0)

I expect the others here will agree.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:28:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm disappointed that Clinton, not Obama, won. (4.00 / 1)

But I'm infuriated that MSNBC is blaming the failure of pollsters to predict it on New Hampshirites' supposed racism.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 00:08:25 AM CST

Cinton Adopts Bush Strategy from 2000 (4.00 / 1)

Interesting analysis on how Clinton co-opted Obama's message, taking a play from Bush's strategy in 2000 against McCain.

"Recall that in 2000, John McCain smashed Mr. Bush in New Hampshire by dominating the votes of independents. But Mr. Bush wore down Mr. McCain in subsequent contests with a two-pronged strategy. He co-opted the Arizona senator's "reform" mantra by calling himself the reformer who would actually produce results, and sharply criticized Mr. McCain in ways that deepened the doubts of Republican regulars. It worked, especially well in contests limited to GOP voters."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 11:09:25 AM CST

[ Parent ]

That's it exactly (0.00 / 0)

She's going to continue to absorb the Change mantra as if it were her own because it's popular.
I see her as representing the least amount of change out of the Dem candidates. This strategy is infuriating. Not to mention underhanded.  

Obsessed is just a word the lazy use to describe the dedicated.

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by: Justin Credible @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 13:43:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

agreed... (0.00 / 0)

It's amazing to listen to Clinton this morning criticizing Obama's position on the war - calling him a flip-flopper, claiming he's anti-choice, etc.

I know this will make some people angry - but because of the Clinton campaign behavior in this primary, I have made a decision.

If Sen. Clinton is the nominee, I will not be voting for the democratic candidate.

I spoke with two friends today, and they agreed to do the same - we prefer a non-dynasty republican in the white house to a dynasty democrat.

(in case you're interested in the numbers, my friends and I are all in the 25-35 age range - I suspect you'll see this anything-but-clinton feeling from many of those who feel passionate about change)

~~
I'm an Obama/Edwards/Kucinich/Gravel Democrat.  1968-2008: Hoping this year is different.

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by: eightfold @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 15:12:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Handcount back up? (0.00 / 0)

Where any random spot checks done?

Fringe elements are squawking, but it makes me wonder.

Only a little. as the headline "winner" is nice, but it is delegates that count.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 13:58:13 PM CST