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what a primary!

by: HAP

Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:42:35 AM EST
I am disappointed that my guy narrowly lost, but what a contest!

Unless Democrats form a circular firing squad over the primary season, we are in excellent shape for the general election. We have substantive, resilient candidates. One sour point is that a key group of voters must have lied to pollsters.

Congratulations to HRC--We'll get you next time.
HAP :: what a primary!
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what a primary! | 3 comments
That's not really how polls work. (0.00 / 0)
a key group of voters must have lied to pollsters.

At least, not as I understand it.

Pollsters don't simply conduct a random sample of state residents of voting age, and report the percentages.

Instead they make educated guesses about which subgroups - women, under 35, over 65, independents, new voters - will turn out and by how much. They interview more or fewer people from each group based on these assumptions, or they weight the samples they gather up or down based on them.

Yes, a poll can go wrong because people lied.

But it's more likely that a poll will go wrong based on bad assumptions or weighting.

MOST polls are inaccurate. (0.00 / 0)
MOST polls are inaccurate.  And a candidate's reliance on them when choosing issues or campaign tactics is often the bane of politics.

Except in the most unusual of circumstances, "polls" are really very seldom accurate -- you take a number of polls and average them out, and they're still inaccurate.  Media make the polls "accurate" because there are so many of them, some figure has to be right. Sort of like a broken clock being right twice a day.

Polls CAN be used at giving us an idea about trends, but only trends.  There's nothing wrong with that.  But  I don't think we shold overly-rely on them or focus groups.

[ Parent ]
Poles other than those from Poland (0.00 / 0)
There can't conceivably be anything good about poles except that they keep pollsters in business and media people yacking. Reporting them should be banned. It is always an attempt to influence voters who are supposed to make up their minds based upon what they know about the candidates and their circumstances not what other people report about who voters are going to support or say they support. It is influence peddling at its worst.  
what a primary! | 3 comments

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