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Despite unprecedented early attention and focus on the presidential race among the campaigns and both old and new media, the nominee for the two parties couldn't be less clear.
Hurtling toward February 5th, we have a fractured GOP field, with two candidates (McCain, Huckabee) largely unacceptable to the biggest voices in the GOP stacking up wins and close seconds, while the one the establishment settled on early (Romney) finds that his vast fortune can't hide his mile-wide and inch-deep platform and support. And another big name (Rudy!) has utterly collapsed.
Among Democrats, while it is undeniable that we now have a two-person race, the choice for nominee is even murkier than the elephants. With huge name endorsements, constituencies, and demographics between them, one with more wins and the other with more (non-super) delegates, and each of them representing a historic change in the person who will occupy the Oval Office, I now doubt that this will be decided soon, even as we hurtle past February 5th.
As crazy as it sounds in 2008, the idea of a brokered convention, on both sides, may not just be for political junkies anymore.
Yet out of such cloudy skies has emerged as clear a ray of light as we can see, and it is undeniably the biggest story of the race so far: turnout.
In Iowa, in New Hampshire, and in Nevada, Democrats are turning out to vote over Republicans in huge numbers. In Michigan (where the Democratic race didn't matter), despite the Levin-induced mania for an early primary, and with the accompanying millions spent to make it happen, there was depressingly low turnout for Republicans.
But let's leave aside Michigan and look at the three other states, each with great regional and demographic differences among them:
Voter Turnout by Party (rough numbers):
Iowa: 220,000(D) 115,000(R)
New Hampshire: 288,000(D) 239,000(R)
Nevada: 115,800(D) 44,300(R)
Total Democratic Voter Turnout: 623,800
Total Republican Voter Turnout: 398,300
Yes, the GOoPers largely abandoned Nevada (why, exactly, is a good question to ask), but South Carolina is as red a state as can be, and both parties' candidates are campaigning hard there, so once we have next Saturday's vote totals in we should see some more data to look at.
But the emerging narrative is as clear as day: eight years of Bush and Cheney have given the Democratic party an enormous structural advantage this time around. Let's not blow it.
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