Push Polling against Lynch

There are conflicting definitions of push poll floating around (0.00 / 0)

Some claim that a push poll never tallies the responses.

Some make a distinction between spreading the negative talking point and testing it.

I don't think there are such sharp lines here. An effective push-poll effort would tally whether or not people actually said, "Yes, I am less likely to vote for her now that I know she was once a thespian." If it changes nobody's intention, the push poll is ineffective.

In this case, the push poll may be testing messages against Lynch as part of an effort to recruit Guinta.

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by: elwood @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 08:44:58 AM CST

A push poll is a poll meant to influence the opinions of the respondents. (0.00 / 0)

See? I defined it.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 11:34:47 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It's not a push poll (4.00 / 2)

Kathy Frankovic, director of polling for CBS News, provides a good explanation for the difference between push polling and a real poll that includes questions to test your opponents' vulnerabilities -
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

"Fundamentally, what people label a push poll isn't a poll at all. A push poll is political telemarketing masquerading as a poll. No one is really collecting information. No one will analyze the data. You can tell a push poll because it is very short, even too short. (It has to be very short to reach tens of thousands of potential voters, one by one). It will not include any demographic questions. The "interviewer" will sometimes ask to speak to a specific voter by name. And, of course, a push poll will contain negative information - sometimes truthful, sometimes not - about the opponent.

"Not all questions that seem negative are part of push polls. Candidate organizations sometimes do actual polls that contain negative information about the opposing candidate. These polls, which are not push polls, are conducted for the same reasons market and advertising researchers do their work: to see what kinds of themes and packages move the public....Polls done for campaign research are full-length, with more topics than just questions about the opponent, and include demographic questions that allow researchers to categorize respondents. Interviewers won't ask to speak to anyone by name, but are calling a sample of randomly selected telephone numbers....

"Push polls mislead the public, and not just about the opponent. They even mislead the public about what they are; callers claim they are conducting a poll when all they are doing is spreading negative information. But sometimes, charges of push polling are also misleading. Respondent - and pollster - beware."


I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

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by: Judy Reardon @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 10:28:42 AM CST

Again, there seem to be conflicting definitions (0.00 / 0)

Others in the industry claim that a push poll never includes identification.

Yes, there is certainly a class of polls in which:

1. The polling outfit does not identify itself or its client
2. The poll is short and doesn't ask about demographics
3. The poll has little content except the negative information.
4. The poll is not tallied (though only the pollster will know about that

I will respectfully disagree with this narrow definition.

We need a term for polls that - unlike a traditional Gallup, SUSA, or Rasmussen poll - include "drive-by" efforts to influence the voter or test a message. I don't think we need to invent a new term: just accept a broader definition of "push poll."

(Plus, with automated pre-recorded polling a la SUSA, a classic push poll can be much longer without limiting its reach.)

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by: elwood @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 11:00:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I Respectfully Disagree with Your Respectful Disagreement... (0.00 / 0)

I think there is a very important difference between polling to influence voters and polling to test a message. The RGA poll seems to me to be a combination of the two: They're testing messages, but, being Republicans, can't resist getting a few digs in, too. That's their nature.

Every successful candidate needs a message that "moves the public." There are countless issues of importance in every election, but candidates can't give each of them equal emphasis. A candidate may feel strongly about dozens of policy initiatives, but which one does the campaign feature in a radio ad, campaign mailer or 10-minute stump speech?

Polling is one way to prioritize issues. If 67% of likely voters say crime or economic development or better roads is an issue that would move their votes, well, the candidate better be ready to address that issue first, even if the candidate thinks education or preserving open space is equally - or more - important.

Successful candidates believe they have a good sense of their consitituents needs and wants, and most in fact do. But a candidate for governor of New Hampshire has to appeal to a half-million diverse voters; polling is a good way to get a sense of the zeitgeist.

We should also note that "negative information" can often be in the ear of the beholder. The crime example is pretty clear cut - the more-jobs-for-armed-robbers bloc isn't that big - but how about "Candidate Y wants to increase state spending on public transit"? Transportation advocates might applaud while car-driving budget hawks who never take the bus or train would howl.

Doug's definition comes close, I think, but ignores the "observer effect" of any political discourse. Voter opinion will be influenced by any discussion of arguable positions. Bringing up an issue in any context places that issue on the agenda regardless of intent, and the mere presence of the issue often causes a division. Next time you're at a candidates forum, raise your hand and innocently ask, "So, candidate, whaddaya think about the Second Amendment?"

Frankovic's probably most upset about the impact of "push polls" on legitimate public opinion measurement. As most of us know, many voters are impatient with calls from campaigns. Someone, no doubt after reviewing the polling data, figured out that voters are less likely to hang up on a pollster, so they disguise a negative telemarketing call as a poll. She may fear that pseudo-polls will hike the refusal rate for her polling.

 

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by: Tim Ashwell @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 12:55:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

We need to start educating the public (4.00 / 1)

not to talk to strangers on the phone and to recognize that most people spreading gossip are not good-hearted.

Gossip is cheap.  That's why Republican politicians routinely resort to it.

The only poll that counts is the one voters conduct on election day when they go to vote.

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by: hannah @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 09:32:14 AM CST

[ Parent ]

This RGA poll has other legal problems (4.00 / 1)

Even if it's not a push poll, the RGA once again failed to register with the Secretary of State before spending money on a state election. Political action committees are required to register with the NH Secretary of State before spending money on state races. The RGA failed to register in 2004, too. This appears to be a pattern with them.    

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

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by: Judy Reardon @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 14:56:55 PM CST

The Posse's Coming After Fergus (Yet Again) (0.00 / 0)

The NHDP is asking the state Attorney General to investigate - read the party's news release for the details.

These guys never learn - isn't $25,000 a year enough?

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by: Tim Ashwell @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 15:54:01 PM CST

Those are the same people who think a trillion dollars in Iraq isn't enough. (0.00 / 0)

Don't worry, you can always borrow more from China!

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 16:03:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

State Committee Meeting (0.00 / 0)

We are going to have fun Saturday.
Yay Ray !

"Poetry is not an expression of the party line. It's that time of night, lying in bed, thinking what you really think, making the private world public, that's what the poet does." Allen Ginsberg

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 17:02:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I didn't know you were on the committee. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 17:42:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That's because they know (0.00 / 0)

that most of the big bucks are going into the coffers of Raytheon and Boeing and Halliburton and McDonald-Douglas and Axsys Technologies and so many more.
One trillion dollars over five years isn't that much when we're talking about munitions and electronics and hardware having to be replaced.

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by: hannah @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 09:49:32 AM CST

[ Parent ]

statement from RGA (0.00 / 0)

Found part of their statement on politickernh

"First and foremost, RGA's current strategy and tactics in New Hampshire are legal. Second, we do not discuss them with the media or the Democratic Party. Third, this complaint is laughable and legally unsound," said RGA Communications Director Chris Schrimpf in a statement.

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by: sdoyle @ Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 22:59:47 PM CST