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A Kenney Effect?

by: Dean Barker

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 20:16:29 PM EDT
A little while ago James Pindell came up with a list of 62 Republicans he thinks could get at least 18 percent against John Lynch. 17 percent is what Joe Kenney got in the latest UNH poll.

It's a pretty funny post, but it's got me wondering.  I hardly ever think about the NH-Gov race, because, well, there's nothing to think about.

But here's the thing: in a year where we might be looking at another tidal wave in-state for Democrats, especially as Obama starts to break free in the polling, what effect does having a non-presence on the Republican side of a leading race mean for the others both up and down the ticket?

I'm thinking this is a really unexpected (from the perspective of the start of the cycle) but happy bonus for us.  And while sometimes the bi-partisan tenor of Lynch's style makes me crazy, this is an area where it could pay off big for other Democrats on election day.

What do you think?  
Dean Barker :: A Kenney Effect?
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A Kenney Effect? | 19 comments
I think your title is unfair (4.00 / 2)
From all that I can gather, the effect has nothing to do with Kenney and everything to do with Lynch.


www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com
Ya think so ? (4.00 / 1)
A favorite line of mine regarding failed Republican Goobers...
Jay Lucas ran against Jeanne Shaheen in 1998 I believe...he had degrees from Oxford and Harvard IIRC, and he spent approx. $700,000.00 of his own money getting trounced by her cautious yet effective bi-partisan style.(Sound familiar Rich ?)I think it was something like 68-32...anyway on election eve I was at the party for Jeanne, outside talking to Uncle Mike, Billy's driver(another story). In any case I was suggesting how I would have felt if I was one of Lucas' kids, watching my father pour that much money down the drain instead of leaving it to me...I said...'can you imagine how they must have felt ? And this was a smart guy with degrees from the best Colleges in the world..." Mike said, "Jon, thermometers have a lot of degrees and you know where you can stick them..."

4
Presence v. Non-presence (0.00 / 0)
I agree with Mr. Mitchell.  It is Lynch's presence that is effective here.  The difference between Senator Kenney and a lot of the people on the Pindell list is that they knew they would get trounced, while Senator Kenney thought he could win.  I don't think any of them would have done much better than Kenney will do, and some of them, like Johnny Stephen and Ray Wieczorek, could very will have done worse! While Gov. Lynch's bi-partisan tenor may drive you crazy, Dean, you are in a very small, one might even say, minute minority.    

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 
Kenney's presence (4.00 / 3)
is noted by its absence.

4
[ Parent ]
Well, that's kind of what I mean. (4.00 / 1)
Lynch's governing manner has essentially neutralized the opposition, and now the opposition's emptiness is so big it's worth looking at the impact it might have on other races.  

birch, finch, beech
[ Parent ]
this was always what this race is about (4.00 / 1)
no straight ticket?
You gotta love Lynch. He cares about New Hampshire.
He really cares. He proceeds from there to try and fund good honest government, employing good honest people. Name one scandal, that truly was a scandal, not some Republican prank, and I'll buy you a beer. It's good to be cautious in perilous times. These are perilous times for States. Massachusetts and California cannot raise monies to run their respective States.

New Hampshire will do better than most. "No matter what happens, we'll be fine"

If I could search my old posts on this site, you'd find a bit last June, when the Repugs howled at Lynch for suggesting we float bonds for long term 'bricks and mortar' financing. They wanted a go at the "Rainy Day Fund", and Lynch said, emphatically No.
I thanked the Gov in these pages noting it was surely looking Grey, but the rainy days were yet to come.

Thanks again Governor Lynch for your 'caution'. This is the worst flipping financial time any of us has had to endure, brought on in great part by the failed policies in Washington of the last eight years. Concord is doing what it can and it should.
The people recognize that and appreciate it.

"Here's that Rainy Day"
by Jimmy Van Heusen



4

[ Parent ]
damn its Bill Evans...* n/t (0.00 / 0)


4
[ Parent ]
XXXVI (4.00 / 1)
A VOCAL minority.

And proud of it!

Call it tough love if you want. I do.

(insert geography card here)

[ Parent ]
Get back here you (0.00 / 0)
We are playing nice!

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com
[ Parent ]
OK n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
A Perfect Storm (0.00 / 0)
While I'm a little concerned about just how "negative" the McSame/Failin' campaign will get and who they may persuade, I think The Perfect Storm is again shaping up for Democrats this year.  That's why I've set my "expectations/projections" so high -- factoring in the top of the ballot, the enthusiasm level for Democrats, the new registrations, and the zeroness of the Republicans on the ballot in so many places.  
It seems like the tougher task (4.00 / 1)
would be compiling a list of Republicans who would do WORSE than Kenney: candidates who could not get 17% from the Republican base.

Cop-killer advocate Tom Alciere?

Murder-for-hire defendant John Brooks?

Beyond that I'm drawing a blank...

Over on PolitickerNH (0.00 / 0)
Hey Fergus...new
posted by Anonymous One

Today I got a full color giant postcard from Senator Gallus. One side had a picture with Lynch and a long list of his votes with Lynch. The other side featured a photo of Susan Lynch with Gallus...maybe mail like this is why Kenney is at 7%.

Can we get a scan of this mailing?


www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

maybe Fergus knows how to email ? n/t (0.00 / 0)


4
[ Parent ]
That's kind (0.00 / 0)
of weird. Did Lynch's office okay the use of his image for a Republican candidate?
[ Parent ]
What I'm wondering is how much longer it's going to take (0.00 / 0)
for Lynch to realize he can act like a real Democrat.
5, ..4, ..3, ..2, ..1..... (0.00 / 0)


www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com
[ Parent ]
What am I wondering... (4.00 / 1)
Is when you and a few others are going to stop grousing about an excellent governor who has helped a lot of Democrats get elected, who signed a minimum wage increase, civil unions, the evergreen clause bill, etc., etc.  I'm also wondering when you are going to give Governor Lynch credit for everything that he has done for our state.  This really is getting old.
I'm also wondering who made you the arbiter of what it means to be a "real" Democrat.  One could ask if "real" Democrats go around snipping at the Democrat who is our gubernatorial nominee - the man who according to the UNH survey Center has the highest approval rating among Democrats of any Democrat on the ballot. Or  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    
[ Parent ]
At least 90% of Democratic Primary Voters (4.00 / 2)
think John Lynch is a real Democrat.
[ Parent ]
A Kenney Effect? | 19 comments

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