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amateur spreadsheeting

by: kite

Fri Nov 21, 2008 at 20:08:15 PM EST
(kite beat me to it! - promoted by Dean Barker)

Inspired by all the election analysis, and unable to leave a spreadsheet alone, I made a quick comparison of something I had been wondering about.  I had no good reason to wonder, and I'm not sure what the results mean. I can't really even swear they're accurate, although I tried to be careful.  

I pasted the NHPR town-by-town data for Carol Shea-Porter and Jeanne Shaheen, manually removing the towns in which CSP was not running.  But in the towns where they were both on the ballot, it looks like CSP received a total of 2700 more votes than Shaheen.  

I was surprised.  I had actually thought Shaheen had better name recognition, and in the "Democratic tsunami" that recognition would have gotten her more votes than Shea-Porter.  Guess I was wrong.  Shea-Porter had higher vote totals in 52 of 79 towns.  

The full spreadsheet is 80 or so lines, so I don't want to post it, but I would be happy to email it.  Apologies in advance if I made mistakes on this.

In case anyone wants to look for patterns, here are the towns of Strafford County, and the vote differential (CSP vote minus Shaheen vote):


Barrington 67
Dover -18
Durham 36
Farmington -37
Lee 66
Madbury -6
Middleton 1
Milton -56
NwDurham -32
Rochester 82
Rolnsfrd 10
Somrwrth -33
Strafford 21
kite :: amateur spreadsheeting
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amateur spreadsheeting | 6 comments
I Can Give A Shot Putting It Up For Download If You Want (0.00 / 0)
I need me one of them there fancy WYSIWYG HTML jobbers for Mac so I can make those charts without the pain in the ass of doing it from scratch.

Macs can be a huge pain in the ass, nobody with a PC ever gets the Mac OS after all.....

Back on Wikipedia they had some kind of code where you could sort the markup, but I never got to that level of code expertise before I left.  

Some observations: (0.00 / 0)
* Sununu/Shaheen was engaged in wall to wall ad carpet bombing. I believe it dragged both down at the end, but Shaheen had more room to go down than John E., as she was consistently ahead in the polls.

*

Shea-Porter had higher vote totals in 52 of 79 towns.  
This is striking, and to me speaks to CSP's durable strength in CD1.  My diary focused on how she racked up the votes in voter-rich wards compared to 2006.  But getting more votes than Shaheen, who herself won a tough statewide race, in so many towns demonstrates that strength in a different way.

Thanks for doing this; I'm still going forward with my own overlays of CSP w/ Obama and Shaheen, but I'm glad you chose NHPR, since the SoS data for Shaheen/Obama is listed by county, so the comparisons are much easier going to NHPR.

birch, finch, beech

Not Too Surprised (0.00 / 0)
When canvassing I talked to a McCain, Sununu, Shea-Porter voter, who said that he liked her straightforward style.

The impression that I got canvassing was that the people who knew more about CSP were going to vote for her, and those who knew less were simply undecided, and they didn't yet have a strong opinion. Once people get to know CSP they like her.

Shaheen elicited stronger opinions from people who weren't going to vote for her. Probably had a lot to do with the negative ads.

The exercise can be seen as measuring (0.00 / 0)
the relative strength of Shea-Porter v. Shaheen - or the relative weakness of Bradley v. Sununu.

I view it more as the latter.

And also, (4.00 / 1)
you have  the incumbency edge for Sununu, maybe a little less so for CSP.

Though both of their opponents had wide name recognition as former elected officials, Shaheen more so.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
this doesn't surprise me...now (0.00 / 0)
I was part of the Obama legal team at a Ward in Manchester (I think it was Ward 9, but I can't remember) and part of our responsibility was to report the vote totals at the end of the night.  When I heard the results for CSP and Shaheen respectively I had to ask the election official to repeat it because CSP had beat Shaheen by a significant margin.  As I said, I was very surprised.  Interesting that it carried throughout the 1st District.
amateur spreadsheeting | 6 comments

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