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How did Shea-Porter pull away from Bradley so convincingly this second time around, with almost four times the victory plurality as she had received in 2006? Shea-Porter beat Bradley the first time by 5,100 votes; this time, it was by 20,000.
For starters, she won in more places. Two years ago, Bradley actually won more than Shea-Porter did, edging her out 41-39. But she turned the tables on Nov. 4, winning 47 communities to 33 for Bradley.
Manchester was pivotal for the Democratic victor. Two years ago, Bradley won two of the 12 wards and lost the city by only 1,000 votes. This time, Shea-Porter skunked him throughout and built up a bigger winning margin there - 6,066 - than she had in the entire district during their 2006 contest.
p.s. I hope to have my Hodes' version of this up tonight. And a sneak preview: what I thought would be a fairly tedious numbers exercise in Hodes' pwnage over Horn turned out to hold a real surprise - one that Mr. Landrigan in particular will find of interest.
p.p.s. - And to the part of the Telegraph column that addresses the UNH numbers - our issue with the UNH poll isn't about the 11th hour daily tracking poll numbers. Of course those are going to be close to the outcome. The problem is the ridiculously small sample sizes for the CDs, combined with the non-attention to party ID data, which both combine to create all kinds of drama that don't necessarily exist. And then get widely reported in the state media. Like, e.g., that the NH-01 re-match would actually be close.
