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(I saw this poll as well. Wonder how this will play out in 2010 and beyond. - promoted by Jennifer Daler)
How discredited is the Grand Old Party brand name these days? This discredited:
According to a just-released Rasmussen poll (I know... Rasmussen, but still), in a three-way ballot test a "Tea Party" candidate would outpoll his Republican opponent by 23% to 18%. A Democrat finishes first with 33% and the other 22% are undecided. Among independents, 33% would prefer the Tea Party candidate while only 12% prefer the GOP.
I am not a political scientist, but I don't ever recall a time when a non-existent third party candidate outpolled an existing national party. Among other things, my guess this means...
- Social conservatives have finally figured out that the GOP doesn't give a fig for them and has been using them all these years. Given any sort of viable option- i.e. a real Tea Party candidate to vote for- social conservatives and the GOP are history.
- If a national Tea Party or equivalent isn't formed, social conservatives stay home unless local GOP candidates convince them they are totally in line with their values and positions. To do this candidates will have to do... well, just about anything.
- Expect that NH GOP politics is going to get even crazier as we approach 2010. To win an NH GOP primary, you will need to move right, fast. Charlie Bass' recent wingnuttery is just the beginning of the festivities. We will see GOP candidates for Governor saying we need to dismantle our state government and GOP federal candidates calling for mandatory monthly birth certificate checks.
- Moderate GOPers will finally understand there is no longer room in their party for them. We should reach out to traditional GOP types who are increasingly isolated. They probably number 10% or so of the electorate.