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Dante Scala that is, New Hampshire's most perceptive political scientist.
If you turn on WMUR this Sunday, you can watch Jennifer Donahue.
Or if you value your sanity, and would also like to learn something about Granite State politics, you could check out Dante Scala's latest work instead (which Pindell apparently Scribd), done under the aegis of Brigham Young's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. I was going to read it first and then post on it, but, duh, that's so gatekeeper of me, and contrary to the whole spirit of this place. Have at it!
Dante Scala has, most helpfully, pegged three cycles worth of PVI (Partisan Voting Index) for each congressional district of NH. Here it is in sum:
NH-01NH-02 2000: -2 0 2004: 0 +4 2008: 0 +3 PVI
(Now, before you get nervous about the CD2 one point decrease from '04 to '08, bear in mind that in '04 NH was the only state to flip from Bush to Kerry, while last cycle Obama racked up big margins throughout the US and flipped a number of states. So speaking in relative terms, both numbers are quite robust. Relatedly, elwood wondered aloud offline whether Nader had some dampening effect on the CD2 '00 PVI.)
And Dante:
Over in NH 02, however, the eventual Democratic nominee begins the general election race with some protection against a potential wave. And it's the Second District that gives New Hampshire its Democratic tilt for 2012.
This is very much in line with earlier voter demographic breakdowns he has been doing that show the rise of Democrats in Sullivan, Grafton, and Coos counties (on top of what is already a dominant Democratic region in Cheshire co.)
And I'll say what he doesn't: these Dems are more politically and culturally aligned with Vermont than with Boston-area Massachusetts. Although this is so broad a stereotype brush I am asking for a flame war, the western border of the state has become a solid base for progressive Dems. Bradley Dems were strong there in '00, Dean Dems in '04, and Edwards/Obama Dems in '08.
I know one day I'm going to eat these words when he gets righteous on the Dems, but boy is it good to see Dante Scala back in print:
Dante Scala of the University of New Hampshire says gay marriage is historic legislation, but also is a matter of the Legislature catching up with the public.
But state GOP Chairman John H. Sununu believes the opposite. He says neither gay marriage nor legalizing marijuana reflects New Hampshire's values.
If you haven't been following Dante Scala's new series on New Hampshire's voting patterns and changes from 1960 to now, part four of which came out tonight, you really should. A must read and proof of why he is the premiere political scientist in this state.
(I will rue the day when he tells us that the stars don't look aligned for the Dems, because I know that from him it won't be spin.)
Dante takes another look at the county data and finds gold for Democrats in them thar hills (boldface mine):
The six smallest counties in the state - Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Grafton, Coos and Sullivan - together cast some 191,000 votes for Obama or John McCain, or 28 percent of the major-party vote. But they provided Obama with a 35,000-vote margin, or more than half of his total margin of victory. Indeed, Obama emerged with a 26,000-vote lead from Grafton and Cheshire alone.
Hillsborough and Rockingham voters combined cast 368,000 votes, or 52 percent, of the two-party vote. But they provided only a 9,000-vote margin to Obama.
Here's a condensed version of the county chart data I put together a little while ago, with only the six smallest counties Dante singles out. Close to double digits increases for all:
County
2000/Gore
2004/Kerry
2008/Obama
% Dem Gain
Belknap
40.0%
43.6%
50.2%
+10.2%
Carroll
41.3%
47.2%
50.7%
+9.4%
Cheshire
52.0%
59.1%
63.4%
+11.4%
Coos
45.0%
50.7%
58.7%
+13.7%
Grafton
47.3%
55.7%
63.4%
+16.1%
Sullivan
44.1%
52.4%
58.7%
+14.6
As someone who has lived in three small rural towns in this state, and witnessed a decades' worth of anecdotes of the changing of the political culture among native Yankees and with the arrival of northeastern flatlanders (like me), it is most satisfying to see these numbers. And I suspect that, like the change that occured in once crimson red Vermont in the 1980's, a rural transfer to Dems registrations will be much harder to undo over the years than an urban one.
This shift makes for some interesting realizations, imho. State Senator-Elect Matthew Houde, e.g., is sitting on top of the newly dominant political base in the Granite State.
While I was thrilled to see the state senate make history with its first ever in US history female majority, this line from Kathy in the Globe article on it pretty much summed it up the feeling on the ground for me:
"It's great," said Kathy Sullivan, the state's Democratic national committeewoman. "But nobody's like, 'Oh my God, this is so revolutionary.' It's sort of matter of fact."
But what I didn't at all realize was some of the other high water marks, both present
Democratic women will hold four of the top seven offices in the Granite State...Today, roughly 150 of the state's 424 legislators are women, putting it about 10 percentage points ahead of the 24 percent of state lawmakers nationwide who are female
and past:
26 years ago, Republican Senate president Vesta Roy briefly served as acting governor after Hugh Gallen fell ill and died, making her the country's first GOP female chief executive
Also, Dante Scala makes a great point in the article, that our enormous, volunteer-esque legislature opened up more opportunities for women earlier than in other states.
To me, this history, combined with how little fuss the civil unions bill caused after it became law, speaks volumes about the socially libertarian spirit in our state.
And it also has me wondering what major office Kelly Ayotte will run for next cycle.
Ken Johnson, with the help of Dante Scala and Andy Smith, has a new study out of voter demographics from the Carsey Institute at UNH. It's a must-read (from the release you can grab the .pdf).
I hope to have more on this in the coming days (especially about the astounding finding that a full one-third of total potential voters in this state are new to New Hampshire as of 2000), but for now a screenshot teaser of the change in voter registration and net migration since that time:Look at rural Grafton and Coos counties. George W. Bush, John Sununu and the modern GOP have all but killed the traditional Yankee Republican. Heckuva job.
How could it be that Obama has opened up double digit lead in two different polls? It's easy if you follow what Dante said (and buy his current PVI projection for NH, which I do):
Let's start with a look at the national polls. It's clear that Obama has broken this race wide open, at least for now. Pollster.com estimates his lead nationally at 7 points.
Three months ago, we estimated New Hampshire's PVI (partisan voting index) at R-2 or R-3. In other words, given the results of the 2004 election and demographic trends since that time, one would expect a Republican presidential candidate to perform two or three percentage points below his national standing here in the Granite State.
In that context, a 10-point Obama lead here is perfectly plausible, in the context of a national race where the Democrat leads by seven. In that context, New Hampshire is behaving just as we might expect from a purple state with a Democratic tilt.
Look at rural Grafton and Coos counties. George W. Bush, John Sununu and the modern GOP have all but killed the traditional Yankee Republican. Heckuva job.
