The Fundamentals of NH Dems are Strong: Part Two

Some of those increases (0.00 / 0)

really have me scratching my head, so I've been double and triple checking them.  That said, if you see a number that's wrong, please let me know in the comments.

And I would like to point out that it only took me two years into BH to figure out finally how to do tables and text colors. Oy.

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun Nov 09, 2008 at 19:41:34 PM CST

Coos/Grafton Transformation (0.00 / 0)

Six years ago, when I was assisting Katrina Swett's campaign against Charlie, I build a spreadsheet model to project election returns based on a series of contested elections from 1990 to 2000.  I took a look at the source data recently, and the transformation of Coos and Grafton counties (and, to a more limited extent, the Claremont region) is staggering.

I will do a diary on this when I've had more time to review the numbers.  (Am backlogged at work from time spent on my campaign vacation.)  But suffice it to say that the evolution of small towns throughout the northern half of the 2nd CD -- from red to blue -- is as extensive as it is breathtaking.  

More to follow. . . .  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Sun Nov 09, 2008 at 23:45:37 PM CST

Yes. (0.00 / 0)

the evolution of small towns throughout the northern half of the 2nd CD -- from red to blue -- is as extensive as it is breathtaking.

I look forward to this diary.  I suspect the growth of the Upper Valley has a lot to do with lower Grafton/upper Sullivan, but it doesn't explain the rest of Grafton and Coos.

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 04:18:14 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe it's the economy. (0.00 / 0)

The northern part of the state has seen steady decline in manufacturing and employment. They need whatever services they can get, and the Republicans would deny them this. Also, the decline and disappearance of well paying jobs happened on the Republican's watch. It's hard to buy into all the "self-reliance" and "low taxes are a result of low spending" BS when you have a small or non-existent basis for your economic life.

Other parts of the state, especially the better off ones that harbor tax evaders from other places, still go Republican.

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by: Jennifer Daler @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 05:36:06 AM CST

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exactly (0.00 / 0)

It's pretty depressing in the heart of Coos these days.  You hit the nail on the head with need for services and lack of decent jobs.

Paula M. DiNardo
Dover NH

A Blue Hampster since 2007!

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by: pdinardo @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 14:35:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately, my small town (4.00 / 1)

is not included.  This past Tuesday, they voted for every Republican on the ticket except for Lynch.  Even ousted an incumbent house rep and missed the opportunity to elect the only person running for state rep (either party) from our town.

That's where my work lays in the future!

Feeling hopeful since 2004...

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by: Kelly Nordstrom @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 05:42:28 AM CST

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THANK YOU FOR SAYING THIS (4.00 / 1)

The most vigorous source of new GOP growth in this state comes from south of the border,

I've only lived here 3/4 of my life, but even when I was at West High School I knew the kids of a bunch of white-flight Republicans from Bedford, many of whom commuted to MA every day so they could collect the higher paychecks and pay no taxes - and then complained bitterly about the poor quality of the roads etc. An old classmate of mine, longtime bluecollar Manch-Vegas family, told me jeeringly about Bedfordites refusing to come to her store in Manchester, even though it was just a mile away - why? "Because there are black people there!" was the customer's desperate whisper. That's why rich white Massachusetts folks tend to move up here - only to find to their dismay that it's more diverse than they realized, heh heh heh.

Last presidential election I did the math and graphed out all the towns by votes and incomes - and surprise surprise, the commute-to-MA alley down the center, and the out-of-state-retirees districts around the lakes, were the reddest, with patches where clusters of "libertarians" moving to play gentleman-farmer in the vacated depressed west and north.

Hm...follow the money still operative!

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by: bellatrys @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 06:54:06 AM CST

From what I heard (4.00 / 2)

If you work in Mass, you pay income tax in Mass.

If you live in NH, you pay property taxes in NH.

If this is the case, then tax refugees are getting double whacked. Though they must make better wages by working in Mass and 10 years ago, housing sales prices were likely lower; enticing them North.

Whatevs. You can have 'em.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 07:18:30 AM CST

[ Parent ]

One correction: (4.00 / 2)

Those commuters don't get to "pay no taxes." I commuted down to Massachusetts for many years. You pay a commuter income tax, just as high as if you lived in that state.

The attraction, in part, is that housing prices can be a lot lower over the border.

But the commuters are paying a state income tax that New Hampshire workers do not pay. That's one reason they may be more strongly against local property tax increases - "they gave at the office" already.

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by: elwood @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 07:21:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Adding: (0.00 / 0)

Although these commuters have thus far supported the state GOP, there is the potential for a major shift here. It's simple arithmetic.

The one group that should logically favor a state income tax out of simple self-interest is the commuter. They will pay no more - they will get full credit for the tax they already pay to Massachusetts.

If New Hampshire starts assessing an income tax on its own workers, and that can reduce upward pressure on property taxes, those commuters come out way ahead.

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by: elwood @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 07:41:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Kinds of Blue (4.00 / 2)

(with apologies to Miles.)

The one long-term result I cannot see happening is: New Hampshire becomes entirely Democratic, always maintaining a Dem legislature, Congressional delegation, and governor.

After all, even Massachusetts - perhaps the bluest of states - regularly elects Republican governors. Voters do not want one party controlling everything.

But the occasional governorship is all that Massachusetts offers Republicans. It has an entirely blue Congressional delegation and blue legislative branch.

Vermont may be adopting that model too, with Jim Douglas the sole sop to Republicans against a blue delegation and blue state legislature. Actually, Vermont and Maine both have a tradition of voting in candidates from outside the major parties.

Will New Hampshire follow suit? Perhaps not; Massachusetts and Vermont have Lieutenant Governors and other statewide offices that tend to provide a strong bench and continuity. Without that we may have to re-establish ourselves every two years.

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by: elwood @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 08:41:28 AM CST

Govern Well (4.00 / 1)

The future of the progress we have made in New Hampshire also is dependent on the elected officials governing well, and not forgetting the people who got them into office.  I always come back to the Gene Chandler corn roasts - that type of petty corruption that comes with thinking that l'etat c'est moi. Also, arrogance of power is an occupational hazard, the elected offical who forgets the hard work of all those hundreds of people who worked to get him/her elected, and the thousands of people who voted for him/her, because they believe in the person, the message and the ideas.  So, if we want to continue on this great path, let's all say a prayer that our elected officials govern well and don't get sidetracked by the type of careless betrayals that got the Republicans where they are today!!!

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 11:39:58 AM CST

Amen (0.00 / 0)

Amen to that prayer.

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 17:48:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]