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First of all, congratulations on your victories in 2010. You've earned the right to celebrate. For a moment, though, I hope you'll indulge me in a discussion of a profound responsibility shared by New Hampshire voters of all persuasions: picking Presidents.
Ten years ago, the Iowa Caucus sent you George W. Bush, and you picked John McCain-an admirable choice. In 2008, the Iowa Caucus sent you Mike Huckabee, and you again picked John McCain-a shadow of his former self, but still a superior choice. In both cases, you saw an unreasonable choice out of Iowa and with the eyes of the world on you, you said no. I respect you for that. Although I'm a Democrat who supported Gore and Obama, I'm proud of my state to think of what you Republicans did in those primaries.
We need you to do it again.
All signs point to the disturbing possibility of former Governor Sarah Palin running for President in 2012. I don't need to explain to you all the ways in which she isn't worthy of the job; we've all become very familiar with her in the past few years. McCain's choice of Palin as a running mate was staggeringly irresponsible. Governor Palin's entry onto the national political stage is an insult to the intelligence of the American people, and especially to that of Republicans.
America can do better than Sarah Palin. Republicans can do better than Sarah Palin. Republican women can do better than Sarah Palin. Republican women from Alaska can do better than Sarah Palin. You better believe that New Hampshire Republican primary voters can do better than Sarah Palin. And, fellow New Hampshirites, I hope you do.
I want to make it clear that I do not fear she'd win a general election. I will vote to re-elect President Barack Obama no matter whom you nominate, and I happen to think he would defeat former Governor Palin very easily. But even though I want President Obama to be re-elected, I believe America deserves a real choice. I hope your party nominates someone who, regardless of ideological persuasion, is good enough to be President. New Hampshire Republicans, it's up to you to make sure that happens.
"Maverick" is a mantle McCain no longer claims; in fact, he now denies he ever was one. "I never considered myself a maverick," he told me.
Sure I'd love to deny aspects of John McCain's never-ending campaigns too, but that pesky reality thing prevents me from whisking Sarah Palin back into obscurity.
I think one of the reasons I am most thankful John McCain didn't win the presidency is the factual recklessness (and petty vindictiveness) with which he speaks and acts.
I'm sick and tired of conventional wisdom being set by Republicans who talk nonsense without being held to account by the media. It's time to start calling it what it is: lying.
McCain also criticized Democrats for adding trillions to the national deficit, which he said would increase by another $2.5 trillion under the current health care proposal.
pWire:
"Only 15% of Americans, for instance, know that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has said the legislation will decrease the federal budget deficit over the next 10 years. And 55% believe the CBO has said the legislation will increase the deficit over that period."
DC establishment Republican John McCain visited DC establishment Republican backed Kelly Ayotte last weekend for a little of that Granite State Maverick Magic that resulted in a near ten-point margin loss for his presidential bid in 2008 (boldface mine):
McCain called the Democrats' health care legislation a "train wreck" that is "full of budget gimmicks and full of assumptions that can't be realized." McCain also criticized Democrats for adding trillions to the national deficit, which he said would increase by another $2.5 trillion under the current health care proposal.
"We've committed generational theft on our children and grandchildren," McCain said.
Ayotte criticized Democrats for offering new government programs and increased spending as their own solutions to the country's problems.
So now that the Congressional Budget Office has come out with their analysis of the health care reform legislation, and it shows a $130 billion dollar federal deficit reduction over ten years, and a $1.3 trillion dollar deficit reduction in the decade following, do you think we'll get a follow-up from McCain or Ayotte on this?
I mean, even Judd Gregg had to own up on the TeeVee that HCR reduces the deficit.
John McCain ended up with the worst vote percentage for a Republican presidential nominee in New Hampshire since Bob Dole in 1996 (and to be fair to Dole, remember that Ross Perot was a viable third party candidate that year).
But he's back in March to stump for Kelly Ayotte.
This makes perfect sense. John McCain went from being something of a maverick in yesteryear to the embodiment of the ideological, obstructionist, establishment GOP of today. He is also perhaps the World's Biggest Villager. And the Ayotte candidacy is helpless without Village assistance.
And doesn't he have his own political future to worry about?
How an independent voice for New Hampshire spent her Saturday night:
United States Senator
John McCain
Cordially Invites You To Attend
The McCain Leadership Fund
Phoenix Reception and Dinner
with future republican party leaders
Hon. Jon Kyl
*Hon. Jeff Flake
Hon. Trent Franks
Hon. John Shadegg
Kelly Ayotte (U.S. Senate Candidate, NH)
Hon. Henry McMaster (Att'y Gen./Gov. Candidate, SC)
Vaughn Ward (U.S. House Candidate, ID)
Meg Whitman (Gov. Candidate, CA)
But more to the point: does the Club for Growth know she spent Saturday evening with a guy who actually believes in government doing something about climate change?
Another distinguished colleague of Senate Republican Judd Gregg, and recipient of the finest government health insurance we taxpayers can provide, fearmongers about reconciliation.
Just one problem. Judd Gregg loves reconcilation, especially when it results in tax cuts for the wealthiest:
Hey guess what? We don't need John McCain's vote on health insurance reform because a Presidental nominee John McCain stood steadfastly opposed to Obama's platform. The platform that beat McCain's by mandate sized margins.
And we don't need Judd Gregg's vote either, because, as he put it: "Is there something wrong with majority rules? I don't think so. ... The point, of course, is this: If you have 51 votes for your position, you win."
John McCain was just on the news thumping a podium and declaring, "This bill is not bipartisan!"
Oh, give me a break already. The bill is very bipartisan; the drafters put a lot of money toward tax cuts right off the bat in an effort to be bipartisan. There are 299 billion dollars in tax cuts in the package. What is not bipartisan is the way the Republicans have put their party ahead of what is in the best interest of the country.
And here is another thing that is annoying: if I hear one more Republican whine that the next generation will have to pay for the bill, I may pull an Elvis and destroy my television. The next generation will be uneducated, ill nourished, ill housed and scrounging for work if the economy isn't fixed, because this generation won't have the money to pay to feed and educate the next generation, or to build the businesses to employ the next generation.
The Republicans, who never cared about the next generation's tax bill when it came to paying for a very wrong war in Iraq, and who never cared about the next generation when it came to protecting the envirnoment for future generations, are so full of partisan baloney that they could be served up as lunch meat at the local deli counter.
The reason the bill did not win "bipartisan" support is that the Republicans have made a very partisan decision that they want this presidency to fail, and if that means taking the economy and the middle class down along with the President, well, such is life.
Don't know how I missed this from over a month ago. Landrigan:
But curiously, even though 36,000 more voters cast ballots than four years ago, the much more popular McCain got fewer votes in all 10 counties than Bush did in 2004.
"That's very significant, and it does say something," Secretary of State Bill Gardner said. "I'm just not sure what it was."
The man who trounced Bush in the 2000 primary actually got less votes in '08 that W. did in '04? Despite 36K more voters overall??
That's stunning, even when you factor in the power of incumbency for King George in '04.
Joe the Plumber and His 15 Minutes of Fame
With all the bad news out there, from financial meltdown to ice storm to shoe-throwing Iraqis, we need a Joe the Plumber. We really do. His antics gladden the heart, lighten the step, and bring a song to the lips. He is certainly one of the oddest "political" figures I can recall in my lifetime (I would say THE oddest, but of course he is competing with the inestimable Sarah Palin). To some extent, I guess, Joe was a victim of the McCain campaign's death throws, as they cast about for something, anything, to make them appear relevant.
To President-elect Barack Obama: Welcome! I cannot begin to say how oh so welcome you are!
To Senator McCain: I'm glad you're not our next president, but all in all, you kept the campaign way more civil than Karl Rove and his ilk would have wanted. Thank you for that.
To John Sununu: Your campaign, especially in conjunction with the RNC, was appalling. (But I guess it was hard to run on a record of free-market extremism.)
To Jeanne Shaheen: I'm sorry to say, your campaign was only a little less distasteful than your opponent's. Going door to door for you was hard. I hope you stand taller as a senator.
To Judd Gregg: The only New England Republicans elected were the moderate, pro-choice voices from Maine. You've made a few good votes on the environment, but other than that, you'll really need to burnish those moderate credentials in the next 2 years if you want to hang on....
To Carol Shea-Porter: In more than 20 years of voting, you are easily my favorite Congress-person I've ever voted for. You bring a welcome level of decency and righteous anger to Washington. I hope you can keep that, and I hope you're willing to serve for many terms.
To Jeb Bradley: She's smarter, she works harder, she cares more, and she does a better job. Stay home, stack your wood.
To all those Democrats who worked so hard to make this happen, to those who serve in the House, to those who knocked on doors, to those who swayed even one vote: Thank you, and don't stop now. We need to stay connected to keep our goals alive.
Former President Bill Clinton, speaking in Florida at an Obama rally, made the point that this election cycle is unique in that the nation had the opportunity to observe the major candidates make two, rather than one, presidential decisions. He was referring to their response to the collapse of the Wall Street bubble in addition to the normal selection of the Vice Presidential candidate. But, Clinton was wrong. There were actually three presidential-caliber decisions and, to give him credit, Clinton did mention the other one in an other context--i.e. the execution of the campaign itself.
Obama presented himself as an expert executor, not just a policy wonk.
Pre-emptive ejection: Audience members removed at McCain rally in Cedar Falls
Audience members escorted out of Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., campaign event in Cedar Falls questioned why they were asked to leave Sunday's rally even though they were not protesting.
...
Lara Elborno, a student at the University of Iowa, said she was approached by a police officer and a McCain staffer and was told she had to leave or she would be arrested for trespassing.
...
Elborno said even McCain supporters were among those being asked to leave.
"I saw a couple that had been escorted out and they were confused as well, and the girl was crying, so I said 'Why are you crying? and she said 'I already voted for McCain, I'm a Republican, and they said we had to leave because we didn't look right,'" Elborno said. "They were handpicking these people and they had nothing to go off of, besides the way the people looked."
Don't get me wrong, Peterborough's town hall is absolutely gorgeous; it's where I saw Dr. Dean at the height of his campaign, but...
We reported yesterday that McCain is returning. Today, we can tell you that his final pre-Election Day visit will be Sunday night at his favorite New Hampshire setting, the Peterborough Town Hall. That is where McCain wrapped up his campaigns prior to his wins in the 2000 and 2008 first-in-the-nation primaries.
Although the room's capacity is only about 800 -- small for such a key event -- we understand that McCain himself wanted to return to Peterborough for sentimental reasons and, just maybe, as a sort of "lucky charm."
Seems indicative of the management of the McCain campaign as a whole. Unstrategic, tactical (and when not, reckless) emotional and gambling-based decisions.
I know that's what I want in a President.
(And I sure hope these folks are out in force to show which way Peterborough will swing next Tuesday.)
It's Tuesday, October 28th, just a bit after 6:00 PM. That means that in just about exactly 170 hours New Hampshire polls everywhere will be closed, and those in line will be finishing voting and the counting begins.
Between this hour and that one, a lot will happen. Much political mail will be delivered, many more commercials will air, and there will be some debates. Millions of clocks -- digital and those with little hour/minute hands -- will be turned back an hour as we go to Standard Time. WHOOPS, okay, add one more hour of campaign time: it's less than 171 hours until the polls close! We need that extra hour to be nervous a bit more.
What will happen? Give some thoughts and offer a comment. Here are mine...
I'm keeping to my projections of the past six months which I've repeated a few times, but which I'm firming up: Here in New Hampshire, John Lynch will win, along with Jeanne Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, and Paul Hodes. We'll end up with three Democratic Governor's Councilors, but maybe four -- I can't figure out for sure, but I think we'll have at least three. We'll have 18 Democratic members of the State Senate -- it could be 19, but I'm quite sure of 18. We'll have 262 Democratic House members -- perhaps a couple more, but I'm quite sure we'll have 262 anyway.
Congress will turn strongly Democratic, adding at least half a dozen Democratic United States Senators and a dozen Democratic House members. Oh, and Barack Obama will be elected President; that makes Joe Biden Vice President. I haven't looked carefully enough at the national layout to consider his margin, but I think he'll win a bit over 300 electoral votes. He'll win New Hampshire by 7 percent.
My projections through the past few months are not about the polls, and never have been. I've looked at all the House and Senate districts statewide (it took over 20 hours of analysis last Spring), and considered the new voter registrations, the incredible Democratic turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, and the Democratic unity. I've added percentages to the Democratic vote of 2006 based on the motivating factors which will get Democrats and Democrat-minded Independents to the polls on November 4th -- Iraq, health care, the economy, environmental issues like Global Warming/Climate Change, education, the need for tax reform, and other issues. I also looked at the November 2006 vote and adjusted for a Presidential Election year. Then I added a bit for Democrats to adjust for the relative enthusiasm of the two political parties. Well, we'll see if I'm close.
Two years ago, on October 5th, I wrote projections that were mighty close to the actual results of the election a month later. I thought John Lynch would win, with Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, that we'd have 3 Democrats on the Governor's Council, 14 Democrats in the State Senate, 220 Democrats in the NH House, with a Democrat House Speaker here and in Washington. That year I said 2006 was shaping up as "The Perfect Storm" for Democrats. It was. This year, it's "The Perfect Storm II."
What do YOU think we'll be seeing 170 hours? Sorry, 171 hours?
I've been trying to write this post for a week, but I've been stymied by my two top choices. So I'm just throwing them both in.
What is the worst, most odious, factually vacuous ad of this election season? For me, it's a tie between the NRCC's disgraceful, dishonorable drive-by on Carol Shea-Porter, and McCain's gutter-ball, race-baiting slime.
I see that the common thread between the two is sexual depravity - perhaps that's the ticket for making the top of the list for me. For you, perhaps some other lowest minimal threshold of acceptability fits the bill.
Put your choices in the comments below. If you don't/can't embed video, no worries - a description will do. I'm curious as to what ads push your buttons.
And if these ads don't motivate you to work like crazy over the next nine days to make sure Jeb Bradley and John McCain don't have the honor of representing us - I don't know what will.
Landrigan has the hard numbers on the McCain media pullout, cleverly done as a stretching out into a two-week period an ad buy originally meant for one, at a savings of over 100 grand. Nice try, Messers Dupree, Grappone, DiStaso.
And he adds Jennifer S. Palin-Horn to the list:
Second District GOP candidate Jennifer Horn did a similar thing Tuesday, when her campaign abruptly yanked three-fourths of her planned commercials for the coming week.
This left her with $15,200 in ads last week, rather than her original buy of $63,700.
The campaign claims that this money will be diverted to her GOTV operation, but considering how many things lacking credibility have come out of that campaign, I'm not crossing my fingers. I half suspect she's saving her money for a run next time, or attempting to recoup some of what she's loaned her own campaign.
