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It's Tuesday, October 28th, just a bit after 6:00 PM. That means that in just about exactly 170 hours New Hampshire polls everywhere will be closed, and those in line will be finishing voting and the counting begins.
Between this hour and that one, a lot will happen. Much political mail will be delivered, many more commercials will air, and there will be some debates. Millions of clocks -- digital and those with little hour/minute hands -- will be turned back an hour as we go to Standard Time. WHOOPS, okay, add one more hour of campaign time: it's less than 171 hours until the polls close! We need that extra hour to be nervous a bit more.
What will happen? Give some thoughts and offer a comment. Here are mine...
I'm keeping to my projections of the past six months which I've repeated a few times, but which I'm firming up: Here in New Hampshire, John Lynch will win, along with Jeanne Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, and Paul Hodes. We'll end up with three Democratic Governor's Councilors, but maybe four -- I can't figure out for sure, but I think we'll have at least three. We'll have 18 Democratic members of the State Senate -- it could be 19, but I'm quite sure of 18. We'll have 262 Democratic House members -- perhaps a couple more, but I'm quite sure we'll have 262 anyway.
Congress will turn strongly Democratic, adding at least half a dozen Democratic United States Senators and a dozen Democratic House members. Oh, and Barack Obama will be elected President; that makes Joe Biden Vice President. I haven't looked carefully enough at the national layout to consider his margin, but I think he'll win a bit over 300 electoral votes. He'll win New Hampshire by 7 percent.
My projections through the past few months are not about the polls, and never have been. I've looked at all the House and Senate districts statewide (it took over 20 hours of analysis last Spring), and considered the new voter registrations, the incredible Democratic turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, and the Democratic unity. I've added percentages to the Democratic vote of 2006 based on the motivating factors which will get Democrats and Democrat-minded Independents to the polls on November 4th -- Iraq, health care, the economy, environmental issues like Global Warming/Climate Change, education, the need for tax reform, and other issues. I also looked at the November 2006 vote and adjusted for a Presidential Election year. Then I added a bit for Democrats to adjust for the relative enthusiasm of the two political parties. Well, we'll see if I'm close.
Two years ago, on October 5th, I wrote projections that were mighty close to the actual results of the election a month later. I thought John Lynch would win, with Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, that we'd have 3 Democrats on the Governor's Council, 14 Democrats in the State Senate, 220 Democrats in the NH House, with a Democrat House Speaker here and in Washington. That year I said 2006 was shaping up as "The Perfect Storm" for Democrats. It was. This year, it's "The Perfect Storm II."
What do YOU think we'll be seeing 170 hours? Sorry, 171 hours?
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