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The first of many maps from our 2010 election series is now available on Miscellany Blue. This preliminary map tracks 2010 voting participation by county, based on voting age population estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The most current county-level population estimates are from 2009, so there may be some adjustments when the 2010 census figures are released next year.
Update: the links have been repaired... sorry about that
When Mr. Tucker and I first starting mining data for our New Hampshire election map series, my initial motive was simply to figure out whether specific regions and communities drove the Democratic vote in November 2008, and if geographic patterns of partisan vote distribution in Presidential election years had changed in a distinctive way since 2000. (Answer: not exactly, and yes.)
Since then we've discovered that there is a nearly endless supply of reliable, public-domain data on voting and demographic trends that anyone can fool around with to produce map-ready results. Lately, Mr. Tucker has been urging me to consider the possibility that our little hobby is getting out of hand - it's an engaging intellectual exercise, but to be honest there's a significant time suck factor. So why do it?
At the end of the day, the one sure thing that micro-parsing of election results can tell us is where we've been, plus a little bit about where we are now. As an astute observer noted at a strategy meeting I attended recently, in New Hampshire, every election is an anomaly. The political, cultural, economic, and social crosscurrents that effect election outcomes - not to mention the vagaries of human nature and random, unplanned events that inevitably get into the mix - are so complex and dynamic that election predictions based on raw historic patterns are just asking to be shot down. My theory is that the next best thing to owning a crystal ball that will magically reveal the political future is having a fact-based understanding of the structural conditions in the field.
Hence the maps - and all the old faves, plus a bunch of new ones, were uploaded to a special section of the Miscellany Blue blog today.
