Did Iowa Affect New Hampshire? (w/chart)

by: DavidNYC

Sat Jan 27, 2007 at 18:21:42 PM EST

New Hampshire, of course, is always a heavily-polled state in presidential years, and many firms surveyed the state extensively in the month leading up to the primary. I looked at the numbers from one outfit, the American Research Group, which ran a three-day tracking poll throughout January. While ARG may not have a sterling reputation, its final poll matched the actual election-day numbers pretty well. Those results, by the way, were:

Kerry: 38.4
Dean: 26.3
Clark: 12.4
Edwards: 12.1

Here's the chart I made of ARG's poll numbers:

A few more thoughts below the fold.

NH-02: What Does Hodes Need To Do To Win Re-Election?

by: DavidNYC

Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 00:32:06 AM EST

Hodes showed good fundraising prowess for a guy with no built-in political base and no prior elective office, raising over $1M this cycle. He also set records in terms of raising money from New Hampshirites. As a flatlander at risk of ruffling a few feathers, let me just say I think this last is quite an accomplishment, given what you Granite Staters tell me is a body politic that is used to being catered to, rather than asked of.

In any event, I am confident in Hodes' ability to bring in the bucks he needs. As with all freshmen, plenty of PAC doors will now open up to him. Among others, the irritatingly "non-partisan" environmental groups (who preferred sister-kissing Bass rather than going for the real win) will now go over to Hodes. Plus I am sure he'll still have strong grassroots fundraising.

But money, important as it is, is not the only thing. Hodes, like Shea-Porter, ran strongly on the war. Elwood and Matt now have me a bit worried that without real accomplishments toward ending the war - even if it's all because of Bush's obstructionism and veto pen - Hodes and every Dem who ran on the war will be at risk. I don't know that there is much any freshman can do about this.

But I'm sure there are accomplishments that ought to be within Hodes' grasp - co-sponsoring the right bills, taking visible leadership on important issues. Now that he's an incumbent, getting local ink will be easy - sometimes too easy. So even without passage of the Hodes-McNerny Renewable Energy Act of 2007, he can still make a name for himself. But what should he be focusing on? And how should he do it?

And just to make it clear to anyone who might have thought otherwise: I do NOT think that Hodes has re-election in the bag. Any freshman who ever thinks that way is self-deluding. I do think he'll probably have a somewhat easier time of it than CSP, but that's largely because of NH-02's stronger Dem tilt - a factor that neither candidate has control over. (Unless they push Lynch to do a mid-decade redistricting.)

And I also think the other main factor is somewhat out of both candidates' control: The quality of the opposition. Hodes could wind up with a strong challenger, and CSP could wind up with some schlub who once held a state House seat, and then my initial assessment would flip-flop.

But speaking of which, let me toss in a second question: Who might emerge to challenge Hodes (apart from a Bass rematch, that is)?

Obama to Attend NHDP Victory Celebration Dec. 10th

by: DavidNYC

Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 21:11:25 PM EST

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, will have key Granite State Democrats all to himself December 10 when he appears at the state party's election victory celebration.

The freshman senator was the only potential White House hopeful invited to the event.

"We are honored that Senator Obama has accepted our invitation to celebrate the historic, tidal wave victory New Hampshire's Democrats experienced this November," State Party Chair Kathy Sullivan said in a statement.

I wonder why Sullivan only invited Barack. You probably don't want to invite all the hopefuls, because they'll either all come or all be miffed that they aren't the headline guy. But why play favorites with Barack? What's the angle here?

NH-01: What Does Shea-Porter Need To Do To Win Re-Election?

by: DavidNYC

Sun Nov 26, 2006 at 21:57:35 PM EST

"Running for elective office is something that I will certainly be considering," Bradley said.

Although he would not specify which office he would be seeking, Bradley said a 2008 bid is something "in all likelihood" he is considering.

"I feel that in 2008 things will be different," Bradley said, while sitting on a chair in his office under a picture on the wall marked with a small yellow Post-It note.

So the headline says he is "in all likelihood" running, but by his own words, Bradley is  "in all likelihood" considering a run. I think he's leaving the door open to a non-run a bit wider than the UL headline writers seem to think, but in any event, let's assume there's a good chance he'll go for a rematch.

This is an important possibility to consider because I think Jeb Bradley is probably the only Republican who can offer a serious challenge to Carol Shea-Porter in 2008. I may not be a Granite Stater myself, but I'm aware that the state House and Senate are not generally considered meaningful stepping-stones to seeking higher office. So there really isn't much of a Republican bench in New Hampshire.

If Bradley does run, I think he'll be able to raise solid money. I also think he won't hesitate to go negative on CSP like he did this year. And if Gov. John "74%" Lynch doesn't deliver on his mandate, then I think any backlash could hurt fellow Dems. And, needless to say, there won't be a Dem tide raising all blue ships in 2008.

So what should Carol Shea-Porter be doing to ready herself against a possible face-off against Bradley in two years' time? Obviously, raising a lot of money is key, and now that she'll be an incumbent, that will become a lot easier. Bradley will have to get started early if he wants a legit shot, so I think CSP should be aiming no lower than high six figures in the bank by the end of 2007 if Bradley looks serious about running.

But what about things other than money? What issues matter most to first district voters? What should CSP be working on to establish a strong record that voters can identify with? Obviously, a freshman's influence in Congress is limited, but we all have to start somewhere.

NH-Sen: Lynch Won't Challenge Sununu - Clearing Field for Shaheen?

by: DavidNYC

Sat Nov 18, 2006 at 17:15:42 PM EST

A spokesman for Gov. John Lynch yesterday confirmed a published report that the governor has "no plans" to run for the U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent John E. Sununu in 2008.

Pamela Walsh confirmed a report in the Lancaster-based Coos County Democrat weekly newspaper in which Lynch said he loved his job and would be "staying right here" in New Hampshire.

More below the fold.