New Hampshire Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

Fascinating! (4.00 / 2)

Thank you for all the work that went into this study.  For those of us who will be candidates, it is very timely.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 19:13:13 PM UTC

Question - (0.00 / 0)

But first, THANK YOU!

The question:

I gather that this analysis uses general election Presidential voting numbers to calculate the PVI.  Might it be more appropriate to use gubernatorial numbers, or US Senate numbers, or some mean of those?

Cook needs to use a national race to normalize NH CD-01 and KS CD-03. But we are only trying to compare within the state...

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by: elwood @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 19:36:35 PM UTC

State races (4.00 / 1)

Good question. I can see a benefit to using state races, particularly if voting behavior is marked by heavy ticket-splitting, routinely favoring one party in presidential elections and the other party in state races, for example

On a practical level, however, it introduces challenges. I'm confident John Lynch's overwhelming majorities would skew the results so dramatically that it would limit their usefulness. Choosing which two Senate races to average could also be problematic.

Using congressional votes could be interesting - and would provide a two year window rather than four. Perhaps I'll take a look at that next.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 20:43:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But waitaminnit (4.00 / 1)

Lynch's "overwhelming majorities" themselves constitute "heavy ticket splitting."

As I understand the math, we're measuring delta from the mean. Whether the mean is 52% or 68% doesn't matter so much...

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by: elwood @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 22:45:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah (4.00 / 1)

I see. You're proposing to compare Lynch's overall vote with that from each voting ward? That would provide the relative partisanship for each ward, but the statewide PVI would be zero (just as the combined US PVI is zero).

I think a better approach is to start with the Cook PVI (CD-1=EVEN, CD-2=D+3) and then break it down by ward. This requires using the national vote as the base.

So I was proposing an possible alternative where we compare the NH congressional vote to the national presidential vote (not to itself).

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 00:49:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Had we but time and fortune (0.00 / 0)

we might try both approaches and other variants going back a few elections, and see which have how much predictive value in local races.

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by: elwood @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 00:56:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is fascinating stuff...thank you! (0.00 / 0)

In another lifetime, when i worked at the Nassau County (NY) Board of Elections, I performed alot of similar statistical analysis (so believe me, I know the work invovled in this!)  What I often found was that for a baseline study, it was important to use races where as many voters as possible were not persuaded by name recognition.  In NY, that meant using races for SUpreme Court seats, which were the mostly likely races where voters would simply pull levers for their preferred party.

That would be harder here, given the nature of NH politics.  I wonder though, if year-to-year changes in baseline party loyalty might not be best gauges using something like Executive Council.  It is, admittedly, hard to find racs here where there is little name recognition, but these might be the best indication of the 'default' vote.

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by: Tully Fitzsimmons @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:18:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

First of all, this is great work, so thank you for that. (0.00 / 0)

You mention "voting wards", not towns--does that mean you have a breakdown of the cities by wards for this as well? I'm not seeing it in those links.

--
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 19:57:08 PM UTC

Thanks (4.00 / 1)

The spreadsheet provides data for individual wards from all towns that report them. For clarity and readability, the maps use consolidated numbers for those towns.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 20:48:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Combing through a little more, (0.00 / 0)

Lots of hidden gems of information in here.  For one, Belknap County has a huge down-ballot dropoff after the Presidential race, while the other nine all stay above 90% in the elections for Governor and US Senate.

--
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 20:18:56 PM UTC

Belknap results revised (4.00 / 1)

Thanks for calling attention to this. I wondered about it when I was working on the original maps but the drop-off was consistent across down-ballot races so I did not double check our spreadsheet against the original tables. It turns out there was indeed a data error, which I have corrected and I'll be publishing revised versions of those maps later today. The actual drop-off in Belknap is similar to that found in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties.

My apologies - we have to transfer the vote tabulations for the various years/races via cut-'n-paste from the Secretary of State web site (which is super low-tech in and of itself), so data errors can get into the mix, and that was what happened here.

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by: judy stadtman @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:49:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very interesting. . . . and a couple of questions (0.00 / 0)

Good stuff -- and fascinating, too.  Kudos to you and your wife.  A couple of questions:

1. I built a 2nd CD model to project 2002 returns, and revisited it after the 2008 elections.  The most amazing finding involved the transformation of small-town NH (especially in CD2) from red to blue.  What are your thoughts on the dramatic change in rural communities?

2. I'm curious as to your take on how these 04/08 numbers project in mid-term elections.  As you know, NH has amplified national trends to an extreme level in mid-terms -- '94 and '02 featured massive GOP gains, whereas '98 and '06 were far better for Dems locally than in the rest of the country.  What are your thoughts on this, and do you think the "mad mid-terms" will continue this year, taking into account the shift-to-blue and abolition of straight ticket voting?

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 21:15:40 PM UTC

What this means for 2010 (4.00 / 1)

One the striking changes visible in the election results map series - which is also visible in the PVI estimates - is the transition of small towns in Grafton and Sullivan County from red to blue, or to a deeper shade a blue, between 2000-2008. There's been a similar transition in the Lakes region. But the other factor that makes CD2 an easier (n.b., I did not say "easy") territory for Democratic aspirants is that all the largest towns in the district are also strong democratic voting regions. This is not at all the case in CD1, where Manchester and the surrounding cluster of high-population towns tend to generate a massive swath of GOP votes.

What's interesting about the blue drift in CD2 is that it doesn't hold up in local elections. I'll be writing a bit more about those results later when I publish new maps based on 08 NH Senate District elections (which I'm hoping to get online later today). I'll also be sharing a new map showing 2008 vote distribution by town (based on total ballots cast), which sheds additional light on the impact of trends in CD2.

As for the mid-terms, so much of the outcome will depend on ramping up enthusiasm among Democratic voters and progressive/moderate Undeclareds, and whether our candidates have the resources to put an aggressive voter ID/GOTV strategy in play. The good news is that after record turnout in 08, we have a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters to draw from than we did in 02 & 06. The challenge is figuring out who & where they are and convincing enough likely Dem voters to go back to the polls this November. If Republican turn-out in the GE is as high as pundits are predicting, a strategic plan to drive the Democratic vote will be critical for winning this year's congressional & US Senate races, especially in CD1.  

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by: judy stadtman @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 12:43:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Outstanding resource for current/potential state rep candidates. (0.00 / 0)

Just to double-check, since I am math challenged: if you added the PVI of all the towns in a house district, and divided by the number of towns, you would have the district PVI, wouldn't you?  Which, in addition to the town-by-town PVI, would be most useful in figuring out the whether-to-run, as well as the how-to-run.

Also, more meta: can you believe this incredible resource is the result of a casual conversation at the BH Bash and some very laborious, but unpaid work?  Imagine what we could accomplish if we had an actual progressive think-tank infrastructure in NH.  

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 23:07:30 PM UTC

No - (4.00 / 1)

if you added the PVI of all the towns in a house district, and divided by the number of towns, you would have the district PVI, wouldn't you?

District N:
BigTown, 3000 people, PVI = R + 3
LittleTown, 300 people, PVI = D + 3

That doesn't average out to R+0.

But the spreadsheets make calculating the district-wide PVI straightforward.

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by: elwood @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 23:12:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And there's a reason I don't teach (0.00 / 0)

arithmetic or statistics.

Yes, of course, town population is a factor in the equation of a district PVI.

Thanks.  

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon May 31, 2010 at 00:15:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very interesting stuff! (0.00 / 0)

It'd be fun to see 2000 - 2008 maps of the changes in voting, showing which areas have grown bluer and how intensely. I suspect we'd see that a lot of the North Country found the Democratic Party suddenly merited a look when Craig Benson cut the tourism budget and threatened to wipe out that part of the state economically.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

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by: RealNRH @ Sun May 30, 2010 at 23:09:03 PM UTC

For the record... (4.00 / 1)

I am not a big fan of discussing any of this in a public forum.

You're giving an inept minority party the tools they need to target their resources.

Blog on...

Have you told a stranger today about Bill O'Brien and his Tea Party agenda? The people of NH deserve to hear about O'Brien  and his majority committed to destroying New Hampshire and remaking it into a armed survivalist preserve.  

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by: Ray Buckley @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 18:47:02 PM UTC

You got me with (0.00 / 0)

Blog on...

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 20:07:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point. To rectify: (4.00 / 1)

If there are any Republicans reading this, please keep in mind that this math is wrong, because it didn't come from Karl Rove.  This is no time to start relying on what liberals call "fact".

--
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 20:47:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Truth is not the secret of a few (4.00 / 2)

Though you might think so, the way some librarians and

cultural ambassadors and

especially

Museum directors act..."

- Lawrence Ferlinghetti

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by: elwood @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 00:34:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SSP finds it as publicly useful (0.00 / 0)

as I do.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 09:35:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]