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(Some really impressive diaries coming down the line lately... - promoted by Dean Barker)
The latest John DiStaso Granite Status column screams:
LYNCH STRUGGLES CONTINUE. A fourth consecutive poll of the New Hampshire governor's race shows Democratic incumbent John Lynch falling short of the 50 percent mark in a head-to-head match-up Republican candidate John Stephen.
Why does he focus on Lynch falling short of the 50% mark, rather than the head-to-head numbers? Well, as every "political insider" knows, incumbents polling under 50% are vulnerable this early in the election because the undecided vote always breaks against the incumbent.
Except, the conventional wisdom is wrong! And Nate Silver proves it.
What the actual evidence shows, rather, is the following:
1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.
2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.
3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not "get what they get in the tracking"; they almost always get more.
4) However, the incumbent's vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent's vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent's number than the opponent's when evaluating such a poll -- even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.
Oh, by the way, the Rasmussen poll purportedly showing Lynch struggling has him up by 12 points over Stephen, up from 10 points last month.