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John Lynch and the Myth of the 50% Incumbent Rule

by: William Tucker

Fri Jun 04, 2010 at 10:32:02 AM EDT
(Some really impressive diaries coming down the line lately... - promoted by Dean Barker)

The latest John DiStaso Granite Status column screams:

LYNCH STRUGGLES CONTINUE. A fourth consecutive poll of the New Hampshire governor's race shows Democratic incumbent John Lynch falling short of the 50 percent mark in a head-to-head match-up Republican candidate John Stephen.

Why does he focus on Lynch falling short of the 50% mark, rather than the head-to-head numbers? Well, as every "political insider" knows, incumbents polling under 50% are vulnerable this early in the election because the undecided vote always breaks against the incumbent.

Except, the conventional wisdom is wrong! And Nate Silver proves it.

What the actual evidence shows, rather, is the following:

1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.

2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.

3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not "get what they get in the tracking"; they almost always get more.

4) However, the incumbent's vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent's vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent's number than the opponent's when evaluating such a poll -- even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.

Oh, by the way, the Rasmussen poll purportedly showing Lynch struggling has him up by 12 points over Stephen, up from 10 points last month.
William Tucker :: John Lynch and the Myth of the 50% Incumbent Rule
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John Lynch and the Myth of the 50% Incumbent Rule | 5 comments
he is also running against a weak opponent (0.00 / 0)
Lynch will have the advantage of running against weak opposition.  John Stephen is by far the most credible of the three Republicans, but has he ever actually won an election?  Karen Testerman and Jack Kimball are both extremists and are both lousy candidates to boot.

Stephen's tally in the polls is based on his status as the "anti-Lynch."  Even though he recently ran for Congress and for Mayor of Manchester, he doesn't have an identity of his own yet.  He will not necessarily gain ground in the polls after he establishes his own identity.

Lynch does have a challenger in the primary, State Rep. Tim Robertson.  Tim is a great guy and will spice up an otherwise boring gubernatorial campaign--- but he has no campaign infrastructure in place.

-----


Thanks for all the fish


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Wrong Stephen (4.00 / 1)
John Stephen did not run for mayor of Manchester; his father ran.

He ran for congress twice, losing in the primary in 2002 by 6,058 votes, and 2008, by 1,793 votes.

Showing that Republicans continue to run the same candidates over and over, other participants in the 2002 primary continue to run. Jeb Bradley, who won the primary, is running for state senate, Fran Wendleboe is running for state senate, and Sean Mahoney is running for congress. This means that both Stephen and Mahoney will lose for the third time each! Oh, and Bradley, too, counting his two losses to CSP.!

John Stephen also ran successfully for charter commission in Manchester years ago. I don't remember his exact place, but he was one of nine victors in a field of 108.  He wasn't one of the top three :)  

Johnny also is, like Testerman and Kimball, an extremist and a lousy candidate.    



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
Polling in other states... (4.00 / 1)
I was reading a national unaligned political website the other day. That site was gushing over the "significant strength" of Jerry Brown's numbers in the California Gubernatorial general election poll results..they were not as good as Lynch's over Stephen.

NH media are trying hard to make the race interesting. Not going to happen...

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

A better magic number might be: (0.00 / 0)
How many points is a candidate polling in general election matchups, above the diehard number?

There appears to be a core right-wing constituency of about 25%. Ask about birth certificates, Obama stealing your guns, mandatory abortion? You get about 25% believing the fever dreams of Hannity and Beck.

So, if a Republican candidate polls 35%, that's starting from the base. They are getting about 10 out of 75 other voters.

Polling is one of the campaign strategies "offered" by political (0.00 / 0)
consultants and advisers.  It's part of the advertising campaign for "selling" the candidate to an electorate that's "tailored" to produce a particular result.  When public office is defined as an exercise of power and control, then it makes sense for an aspiring official to demonstrate these attributes from the get-go.  It makes sense for the electorate to consider them determinative, if what they're buying is their own jailer.  

There is something nihilistic about choosing your own poison.

Shall we conclude that conservatives are nihilists?  Nothing good can come of it.

John Lynch and the Myth of the 50% Incumbent Rule | 5 comments

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