Rasmussen already in the field with a poll

What those questions are not: (4.00 / 2)

How do you feel about the current policies of the federal government?

Which of the following best describes your feelings toward the health care reform law: Strongly Support, Support, Neutral/Not Sure, Oppose, or Strongly Oppose?

That's how you write poll questions--without "leading the witness", as your favorite courtroom drama would call it.

At least, that's how you write poll questions if you want accurate results.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 22:02:10 PM CDT

If people know how they feel and consider feelings more (0.00 / 0)

important than thoughts, then a rewording might produce significant information.  However, these questions are a good example of polling being used to "prepare the ground." They fit into several of the categories which Russo, Marsh & Rogers, the outfit promoting Christine O'Donnell in Delaware on behalf of Tea Party Express, tout as areas of expertise:

   * Message Development
   * Market Research Methodology
   * Audience Targeting
   * Coalition Building
   * Fundraising
   * Campaign Ground Operations
   * Public Relations
   * All Advertising Techniques

Tea Party Express is the public face of the astro turf Americans For Prosperity, whose interest in NH seems to be connected to our participation in the regional cap and trade program.

The guy on the left is supposed to be the NH organizer:

 

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by: hannah @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 02:52:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen and credibility (4.00 / 3)

WRONG

Only Pollster To Have Bob Schaffer Winning in 2008. Ever. Rasmussen Reports was the only pollster to ever place Bob Schaffer ahead of Mark Udall in the 2008 Senate race, and they did it twice, in polls in November of 2007 and February of 2008. Throughout the rest of the campaign Rasmussen consistently showed a narrower margin of victory for Udall than other pollsters conducting polls in similar time periods, and their final poll missed Udall's margin of victory by four points. [Pollster.com 2008 Colorado Senate Polls, accessed 1/15/10]

Political Scientist: "Huge Concern" That Rasmussen is "Heavily Skewed Toward Older, White Republican Voters." Reported Politico, "Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, said there was "huge concern right now" that Rasmussen was polling a universe of largely conservative-minded voters. "How is Rasmussen selecting likely voters almost a year before the election? And why would you even screen for likely voters in measuring presidential approval?" said Abramowitz. "My guess is that it's heavily skewed toward older, white, Republican voters."" [Politico, 1/2/10]

Nate Silver: Rasmussen Questions "A Form of Bias." Commenting on the pro-conservative wording of a number of Rasmussen's questions, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com wrote "cases like these happen consistently enough with Rasmussen that I'd say it's a concern. And when they do use unorthodox question wording, nine times out of ten it favors the conservative argument. I would describe this as a form of bias." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 1/3/10]

Rasmussen's Screen Too Tight. Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, "the Rasmussen respondent always seems ready to take a position on just about everything, including candidates and issues that other pollsters show he doesn't know very much about. This perhaps reflects a form of Type II error or "false negatives" -- leaving people out of your sample who should be included, specifically people who are less well informed but who do vote." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 1/8/10]

Rasmussen Admits Conservative Screen. Reported Politico, "Rasmussen, for his part, explained that his numbers are trending Republican simply because he is screening for only those voters most likely to head to the polls - a pool of respondents, he argues, that just so happens to bend more conservative this election cycle... But critics note that the practice of screening for only those voters regarded as most likely to head to the polls potentially weeds out younger and minority voters - who would be more likely to favor Democrats than Republicans." [Politico, 1/2/10]

Rasmussen's Polling "Is Increasingly Out of Balance with...Almost All Other Pollsters." Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, "The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen's polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen." [Rasmussen Reports, 4/17/10]

Rasmussen Polls "Suffering From Significant Self-Selection Bias...Half-way Toward Being Polls of Political Junkies." Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, "In general, if you're trying to understand what makes Rasmussen polling 'different', the key heuristic is to assume that their polls are suffering from significant self-selection bias, and that the people who respond to their polls are significantly more likely to be active consumers of political news. This is probably why Rasmussen polls tend to show extremely large 'bounces' associated with seemingly banal political events, and why they tend to show good results for candidates associated with activist movements, even if those candidates are barely known among the broader public. In essence, they're about half-way toward being polls of political junkies." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 5/28/10]

REPUBLICAN

Rasmussen Is a Republican Pollster. According to the Center for Public Integrity, Scott Rasmussen, Inc. received $95,500 from the Republican National Committee in 2003 and 2004. The payments were for "Voter Data," "Survey" and "Survey Cost." [Center for Public Integrity, accessed 1/15/10]

Rasmussen Polled for George W. Bush. According to the Center for Public Integrity, Scott Rasmussen, Inc. received $45,500 from George W. Bush in 2004. The payments were for "Survey Research." [Center for Public Integrity, accessed 1/15/10]

Rasmussen Misleads. Reported Politico, "While Scott Rasmussen, the firm's president, contends that he has no ax to grind - his bio notes that he has been "an independent pollster for more than a decade" and "has never been a campaign pollster or consultant for candidates seeking office."" [Politico, 1/2/10]

Rasmussen Backs Conservative Narratives. Mark Blumenthal: "Rasmussen produces a lot of data that appear to produce narratives conservatives are promoting." [Politico, 1/2/10]

Rasmussen: Republican Results. Reported Politico, "He polls less favorably for Democrats, and that's why he's become a lightning rod," said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who studies polling. "It's clear that his results are typically more Republican than the other person's results." [Politico, 1/2/10]

Rasmussen Shows "Substantially More Favorable Results for Republican Candidates." Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, "Both critics  and defenders  of Rasmussen Reports' polling have frequently cited Rasmussen's use of a likely voter model to explain why their polls have tended to show substantially more favorable results for Republican candidates than the average of other surveys...This argument is completely true, insofar as it goes. But it is not sufficient to explain the bulk of the Rasmussen house effect, particularly given that Rasmussen uses a 'fairly loose screening process' to select likely voters." [Rasmussen Reports, 4/17/10]

Rasmussen Polls "Almost Always...More Favorable Disposed Toward Conservative Candidates and Causes." Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, "Rasmussen is the 500-pound gorilla in the room. They drive a lot of traffic and narrative. They account for something like 30 percent of all horse-race polls that have been released thus far this election cycle. And their polls really stick out, with results that are as often as not vastly different than what other pollsters show, almost always being more favorably disposed toward conservative candidates and causes. A lot of what I do -- especially when we're still pretty far removed from November and when nobody should sweat any individual poll all that much -- is to highlight polls that seem weird or misguided. If Rasmussen accounts for 30 percent of all polls, they probably account for an outright majority of weird polls." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 5/28/10]

Rasmussen: A Significant Republican-Leaning House Effect. According to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com as of March, "Rasmussen, thus far, has a Republican-leaning house effect of about 5 and 1/2 points. So if Rasmussen, for example, has a Republican leading by 7 points in a particular race, an average pollster would have the Republican ahead by only 1 or 2 points." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 8/25/08]

Rasmussen's Final Polling Results Showed House Effect in 2006, 2008 Senate Races. In 2008, Rasmussen's polling results were an average of 0.97% more favorable to Republicans than the actual outcome of the race. In 2006, that number was 1.84%. [Analysis of Rasmussen Reports 2006 & 2008 Senate Scorecards, RasmussenReports.com]

Rasmussen Official Fox News Pollster. In 2008 Rasmussen Reports paired with Fox News to conduct the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Battleground Polls. From Rasmussen Reports' website, "Rasmussen Reports conducted six state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on November 2, 2008...Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys in all six states for Fox News on October 26 and earlier this fall." [RasmussenReports.com, 11/3/08]

Rasmussen Most Favorable McCain Pollster in 2008. According to a 2008 Pollster.com article by Charles Franklin, "The poll most favorable to McCain is Rasmussen's Tracking poll at just less than -3 points." [Pollster.com, 8/24/08]

Nate Silver: A 2009 Pro-GOP House Effect for Rasmussen. Wrote Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, compared to other pollsters, "Rasmussen has a different model of what the 2010 election is going to look like, one which will feature a more conservative electorate... What Rasmussen has had is a "house effect". So far in the 2010 cycle, their polling has consistently and predictably shown better results for Republican candidates than other polling firms have." [FiveThirtyEight.com, 1/3/10]

Rasmussen: "Tend To Be Among the Worst Polls for Democrats." Reported Politico, "I think they write their questions in a way that supports a conservative interpretation of the world," said Mellman. "In general, they tend to be among the worst polls for Democrats, and they phrase questions in ways that elicit less support for the Democratic point of view." [Politico, 1/2/10]

 

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 22:11:23 PM CDT

The US is a Center Right country (4.00 / 3)

I heard it on TV, so it must be true.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 05:30:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, Yes, But.. (0.00 / 0)

Exactly right, Ray, Rasmussen polls are rotten.

But Scott's father, Bill Rasmussen, was the founder of ESPN, so cut him some slack. That was a major contribution to the nation's greatness! The Rasmussen Report Web site claims in Scott's bio, "Scott and his father also founded the cable sports network ESPN." Scott was a 20-something at the time, but he probably did lend a hand. The Rassmussens never had much of a role at ESPN. Their financial backers installed an experienced management team before ESPN went live in 1979.

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by: Tim Ashwell @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 10:16:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

ESPN? (0.00 / 0)

What's that?  Is that near Bravo and HGTV? To be fair I also watch AMC, TLC and A&E when I am not watching MSNBC that is...

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 12:51:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's the Channel Johnny Weir USED to be On (0.00 / 0)

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by: Tim Ashwell @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 14:44:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Really? (0.00 / 0)

My tivo is set to tape Johnny...maybe I watched without knowing it was this ESPN you speak of...

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 14:54:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I got a call last night (0.00 / 0)

identified as being from "American Viewpoint."

The first question was whether I was a member of the press or involved in an active campaign, a question most calls omit.  When I said "yes,"  the caller thanked me and hung up before I could inquire further.

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by: Lucy Weber @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 06:51:34 AM CDT

Results now (4.00 / 1)

Here.

Rasmussen has Ayotte up by 7 in this poll. Rasmussen has a history of giving Republican candidates a big boost immediately after contested primaries. Rasmussen's last poll of this race a month ago had Ayotte up by 13.

All in all, I think it's a promising result and confirms that Kelly Ayotte is highly vulnerable.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

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by: RealNRH @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 11:04:14 AM CDT

Ras: Tops The Charts (0.00 / 0)

Please follow this link to Pollster.com

Note the best fit curve, for Ayotte. Every polling point above the red line is a Rasmussen Poll. (except for an outlier poll in 8/09 by Now Hampshire)

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 13:04:20 PM CDT

are you saying Now Hampshire out lies it's fellow poll cats? n/t (4.00 / 1)

7 Days
Have you knocked on doors today? Have you made calls ? Have you talked to your neighbors ?  

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 14:24:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]