Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50%

by: Dean Barker

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 20:10:35 PM EDT

Carol Shea-Porter:    42%
Frank Guinta:            47%
Undecided:                9%

407 "likely voters," MoE 4.9%, 10/9-10/12

However, 20 percent of voters said they aren't familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office from New Hampshire.

We can win this race, folks. Don't let those presidential drop-off voters get away.  Remind everyone that there is an election going on! Most of all, remind them about Carol's relentless focus on the "rest of us," and Guinta's refusal to prove that $355,000 dollars he put into his campaign is legal. We need those 20% of voters to learn all about Frank Guinta.

Rasmussen already in the field with a poll

by: Zandra Rice Hawkins

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 21:53:52 PM EDT

A friend passed along that they received a call this evening polling on the US Senate and Gubernatorial races. Two most interesting questions:

* How angry are you at the current policies of the federal government?

* Do you believe that repealing health care reform will help the economy? (after a question asking if the voter supported a repeal)

Screengrab of the Day

by: Dean Barker

Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 19:44:14 PM EDT

In case the Monitor needs more evidence of the Palin Albatross Effect, this is from a new poll conducted by the pretty much unimpeachable Pew Research.

PPP is polling New Hampshire!

by: RealNRH

Tue Jul 20, 2010 at 15:59:41 PM EDT

Small Business Support for Clean Energy A Key to 2010 Elections?

by: NRDC Action Fund

Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 10:57:05 AM EDT

With all that in mind, a recent national survey by Al Quinlan of Greenburg Quinlan Rosner Research has potentially powerful implications for the 2010 elections, providing yet more evidence that climate legislation - despite a fallacious "mainstream media" narrative arguing otherwise - is actually good politics.  The key findings are threefold (note: the document talks about strategy for the Democratic Party, but could apply to Republicans as well):

1. Small businesses "are among America's most popular entities," with an eye-popping 44:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio ("the highest we have ever seen in our polling on any topic")
2. Generating support from small business owners, for either political party, is a key to success in the upcoming mid-term elections.
3. Small business owners strongly agree "that a move to clean energy will help restart the economy and lead to job creation by small businesses."  In fact, according to Greenburg Quinlan, "One of the most surprising findings of the survey is that despite the fact that nearly two thirds of business owners believe it would increase costs for their businesses, a majority still want to move forward on clean energy and climate policy."

As if that's not evidence enough that there's broad support out there for comprehensive, clean energy and climate legislation, how about this Benenson Survey Group survey, conducted in late May/early June 2010?  The key findings of this poll are:

*65% of "likely 2010 voters" believe that "the federal government should invest much more than it currently invests [or] somewhat more than it currently invests."  
*63% of "likely 2010 voters" support an energy bill that would "limit pollution, invest in domestic energy sources and encourage companies to use and develop clean energy...in part by charging energy companies for carbon pollution in electricity or fuels like gas."
*Among "undecided voters," "62% support the bill and just 21% oppose."

There is also strong evidence from this polling that voters - including independent voters by a 2.5:1 margin - are strongly inclined, by around a 2:1 margin, to be "more likely to re-elect" their Senator if he or she voted for a strong, comprehensive, clean energy and climate bill.

In sum, solid majorities of small businesspeople and the public at large both support comprehensive, clean energy and climate legislation.  Which is why, once again - as we pointed out yesterday - the "mainstream media" narrative, that voting for limits on carbon pollution is bad politics, is just dead wrong. To the contrary, victory this November could go to the candidates - and the party - that seizes this issue and makes it their own.  Ideally, it would be great to see both Republicans and Democrats fighting to be the "greenest" candidate, and not just in terms of how much money they raise.

UPDATE: Add another poll to the list, this one by WSJ-NBC indicating that "Respondents favored comprehensive energy and carbon pollution reduction legislation by 63 percent to 31 percent - a two to one margin."

It's starting again - who ARE these guys?

by: GreyMike

Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 22:09:34 PM EDT

They presented themselves as "NH Opinion Survey", and seemed quite non-plussed when I lit into a supervisor for 10 minutes or so about calling at such an indecent hour, etc. I kept asking for the name of the company they worked for, but (after a slip of the phrase "New Jersey") all they would say is "NH Opinion Survey".

Google turns up nothing (of course), but if ever found, the principals of this outfit should be taken out and publicly horsewhipped, regardless of their party affiliation.

However, since their main goal seemed to be annoying early-rising Democrats, I have to suspect it's some of the usual suspects...

No shame at all.

The future of Republicanism is ….. what?

by: Michael Marsh

Wed Jun 24, 2009 at 19:54:22 PM EDT

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll said support for the GOP is at an all time low. Just 6 (six!- the mind reels) percent of those polled have a "very positive" view of the party, and another 19% have a "positive" view. That's 25%, roughly half what it was just 5 years ago. Almost twice as many have a very positive or positive view of the Democratic Party.  

Sarah Palin for President: It begins...with robopolling?

by: measurestaken

Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 15:50:17 PM EDT

So imagine my chagrin when I spoke to a friend of mine who had, apparently, received a robosurvey call gauging the Sarah Palin love in New Hampshire.  

9 Comments: On Polling

by: elwood

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 16:27:02 PM EDT

Nonetheless, I've felt that our after-the-fact reactions to and critiques of individual poll results deserved more context. So, here's an attempt at Reading Polls 101. BTW, I used Wikipedia for some of the math.  

Pew Study on Cell-Phone Polling

by: Garth Corriveau

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 13:38:59 PM EDT

I feel like a political Nostradamus. Me yesterday on the UNH presidential poll:

... for a few years now I haven't had any friends who own a landline phone and I haven't been polled in ... about 8 years and I never miss voting in any election. Maybe it's just me, but mobile technology appears to have made state polls less reliable than just 4 years ago.

Pew researchers today concluded (bold emphasis mine):

that in three surveys from the summer, "including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin."

Operative paragraph from the study imho:

Among the cell-only respondents under age 30, there is a 34-point gap - 62% are Democrats, 28% Republican. The difference among registered voters on the horserace is similar: 39% of registered voters under 30 reached by landline favor McCain, compared with just 27% of cell-only respondents. Obama is backed by 52% of landline respondents under 30, compared with 62% of the cell-only.

These kinds of differences can lead to substantially different estimates of the youth vote.

Important Note on Polls, Ads, Etc...

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:31:13 PM EDT

I know how tempting it is to tune out of a Republican ad or hang up on a GOPer pollster, but, believe me, you will actually be doing a service to electing more and better Democrats by staying on the line and sitting through a negative radio spot.

A good civic "best practice" in these days of 24/7 politicking: if you get a call or hear something that smacks of a push poll, or message poll, or hear an ad that makes you want to scream - grab a pen and paper as fast as you can, and write it down.

And then put it on Blue Hampshire.  There's no better disinfectant than sunlight, and the more we can bring these things out into the open, the more we can all compare notes, and the more the people we want to get elected can prepare against what possibly misleading things voters are hearing about them.

Update: Speak of the devil - Freedom's Watch is now executing their second round of robocalls against Shea-Porter and Hodes.

We need a Nominee: Data Points, Questions

by: Mike Hoefer

Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 09:19:40 AM EDT

Hillary v McCainFeb + 2, Mar -6

Obama v McCain Feb+13, Mar -3

If the polling dates and patterns continue, we should soon see an April report which will show continued erosion of support for the potential Democratic nominees in our state.

NH's four electoral votes could provide the electoral margin of error needed to put a Dem in the White House.

Two questions:

1. How big can the polling deficit get before it is insurmountable?
   
2. Should NH "Supers" (publicly or privately) attempt to influence the process for a speedier decision?

The co-most important thing we must do to salvage American politics

by: Douglas E. Lindner

Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 16:56:10 PM EST

It started a long time ago when I learned that it is forbidden to announce polls on an Israeli election in the two weeks preceding voting.  It's a great idea, but it wouldn't hold up in court here, nor is it nearly enough.  Fortunately for them, the Israelis don't set nearly as much store by such statistics as we do, and that is not my observation, but that of people I met when I was there--meanwhile, I don't have a link, I heard of the polling ban by word of mouth.

I think the co-most important thing we can do for American politics, along with public financing of elections, is to apply the National Do-Not Call List to political polling; this would make poll results unrepresentative and irrelevant, and hopefully, free us from the self-fulfilling prophecies that plague our elections and the lack of political courage borne from issue polling.

Polling is a great American political pariah, just as much as money.  It vastly increases the discretion of the fourth estate to disregard candidates and issues before they have a chance to be heard.  The media's interpretation of polling kills new ideas, kills political courage, kills lesser-known candidates--and not just fringe candidates.  They used polls to justify ignoring and disregarding the candidacies of Chris Dodd, and Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson, among others.  Premature polls and disparity in money are the two greatest problems for underdog campaigns in this country, and that's why no such candidate was able to make significant headway in this historic election.

It's time to kill political polling in America once and for all.

PS: I am aware that I opened a can of worms by mentioning Israel above, but I beg you all to stay on topic in the comments.

Obama well positioned, takes lead in latest Globe /UNH Poll

by: Mike Hoefer

Tue Dec 25, 2007 at 22:16:40 PM EST

The Globe/UNH released new polling on the 23rd. The wonks may want the full 58 page report with cross tabs in PDF format

This is the first UNH/Globe poll to show Obama in the lead. Last month Clinton was up by 14pts, This month Obama is up by 2.

While there are plenty of undecided voters out there (40%, a good reminder about the opportunities we have over the next 2 weeks) I'll explain below why Barack Obama is perhaps best positioned to pull in a majority of these undecideds.

Survey MOE=4.9%

Overall: Although he does not lead every category, Senator Obama is the ultimate choice of 30% of those surveyed. And there is Big Mo in his direction in the areas he does not lead.

Obama 30(+9), Clinton 28(-7), Edwards 14(-1), Richardson 7(-3)

Most Trustworthy: Obama leads this category. 70% more trustworthy than Clinton both vectors are working for him.

Obama 29(+3), Clinton 17(-2), Edwards, 16%9(-3)

Can bring needed change to US:

Obama 34%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 12%

Has Shown Best Judgement: It's not your experience but what you do with it

Obama 29%(+5), Clinton 23%(-1) Edwards 13%(-2)

Dem Candidate Least Likely to vote for: Edwards high negatives surprised me. If 80% of the undecided are open to Obama that is a good sign for his campaign in these closing weeks.

Edwards 35%, Clinton 32%, Obama 21%

Should Individuals be Required to buy Health Insurance: This is the political Gem for Obama. He should frame other heath plans as "Universal Manadates", his offers choice and opt out.

No 54%, Yes 35%

Even the categories that, as Obama Supporter am hesitant to mention, are trending well for the Senator from Illinois.

Which Candidate has the best chance to defeat the Republican Nom:

Clinton 40(-13), Obama 29(+11) a 24 pt. swing

Which Candidate is the strongest leader:

Clinton 38%(-7), Obama 24(+7) a 14 pt. swing

It is going to be a very interesting 2 weeks here in the Granite State.

I got polled today

by: elwood

Sun Oct 28, 2007 at 22:08:40 PM EDT

The first question was about John E. Sununu. Do you have a favorable opinion, unfavorable opinion, neutral, don't know who he is?

Then the same for Jeanne Shaheen, then the same for Jay Buckey.

Following which: who would I vote for in a Sununu-Shaheen race? And, was I favorable or unfavorable toward:

• President Bush
  
• Congress
  
• Speaker Pelosi
  
• Leader Reid
  
• Minority Leader Boehner
  
• Minority Leader McConnell
  

ARG Polls on Libby, Impeachment

by: elwood

Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 12:39:38 PM EDT

New Hampshire's own American Research Group polling company has a new nationwide poll out. 1,100 respondents, 3% MoE.

Key findings:

1. Respondents oppose the commutation by a 2-to-1 margin (64% to 31%)
   
2. Respondents favor impeachment proceeding against Vice President Cheney, 54%-40%.
   
3. Respondents are evenly split on impeachment proceedings against President Bush, 45%-46%
   
4. 83% and 86% of Republicans oppose the impeachments -- which makes conviction in the Senate extremely unlikely.
   
5. Independents favor impeachment of both by healthy margins.
   

A quick historical check shows that support for impeachment proceedings against Clinton were in the 25%-30% range.