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A new poll is out from ARG, who isn't normally a pollster I put a lot of trust in. Their previous poll was the one that claimed a tie in the gubernatorial race and that Ayotte was winning independents two to one. In this case, though, I think the poll deserves a little notice. For one thing, the demographics actually match state numbers much, much more closely than the risible UNH Survey Center poll from last week (and may even have a slight oversample of Democrats by a point or so, though there's still no cell phones in the sample).
Much more importantly, though, this poll clearly shows that the big mo is on Paul's side! In a matter of two weeks, ARG says he's picked up ten points of support and closed the gap by nine. Both Hodes and Ayotte have their bases behind them, though this sample shows a breathtaking 29-point gender gap (with Paul winning women by 8 and losing men by 21). With an MoE of 4, ARG now shows a race well within the margin of error (and with that MoE, libertarian Ken Blevens could bring in -3% of the vote).
I'm not a fan of ARG, but hey, a nine point gain deserves to be noticed. I doubt that Booth or Blevens will actually draw as much support as this one is claiming, but all it takes is a couple of people to toss some noise into the survey. I think the gender gap probably won't be quite so wide, and I wish they'd given a little more breakdown of age categories, but by and large these results at least don't have the obvious glaring red flags that the last poll showed.
