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The UNH Survey Center results for the gubernatorial race are in. Nothing terribly surprising, given that we've already seen the crazy demographics in the house and senate polls. Giant registration edge given to Republicans (particularly in the 1st), dramatic undersample of 18-34, no cellphones, an implausibly large number of Tea Party supporters.
And even with all the edges that Andy Smith can manufacture, John Stephen still can't break 40%.
For a little mathematical amusement, I adjusted those demographics to account for the oversample and lack of landlines, which made it about 54-35, with the remaining 3% of 'other' left untouched. Then if I scale that to assume anybody undecided at this point won't actually make it, I get an end result of...
Lynch 58.7
Stephen 38%
Other 3.3%.
It's not the 40% wins of the last two rounds, but it's still comfortably in the 'cruise to victory' category. Hopefully he'll be spending the next two weeks campaigning hard for Paul Hodes, Annie Kuster, and Carol Shea-Porter!
