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Cloud Hampshire

The Ongoing Reign of Cloud Hampshire

by: RealNRH

Fri Oct 29, 2010 at 17:21:39 PM EDT

(Here's hoping someone will poll New Hampshire someday.  Oh well, maybe next cycle. - promoted by Dean Barker)

Well, so much for hoping for a pollster who can come close to matching New Hampshire's demographics in their results. The usually-reliable PPP just put out another poll of Cloud Hampshire. Even there, Governor Lynch easily wins his historic fourth term.

The criticism of this one is simple. 28% Democrats. 37% Republicans. PPP is giving Republicans a 9% edge, when the actual Republican edge is, as has been noted repeatedly this election cycle, 0.6%. In a state that voted for President Obama by an easy ten point margin, PPP surveyed people who voted McCain by 2. While it's not so pronounced as the also-flawed UNH poll, PPP still undersampled voters in the 18-29 group, with 10% whereas, for example, in 2004 that age range was 16% of the electorate. And, of course, PPP does not appear to have polled cell phone voters.

There's More... :: (4 Comments, 275 words in story)

Even In Cloud Hampshire, Nobody Likes John Stephen

by: RealNRH

Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 02:34:04 AM EDT

The UNH Survey Center results for the gubernatorial race are in. Nothing terribly surprising, given that we've already seen the crazy demographics in the house and senate polls. Giant registration edge given to Republicans (particularly in the 1st), dramatic undersample of 18-34, no cellphones, an implausibly large number of Tea Party supporters.

And even with all the edges that Andy Smith can manufacture, John Stephen still can't break 40%.

Lynch 51%, Stephen 38%.

There's More... :: (1 Comments, 99 words in story)

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