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No Exit? No Challenger?

by: Dean Barker

Thu Aug 02, 2007 at 13:35:40 PM EDT
No Exit?
Are we and Gov. Shaheen in for a surprise come next September?  Cited earlier on BH, but from a new article on Katrina Swett in the Monitor:
While Marchand has repeatedly said he'll leave the race if Shaheen gets in, Swett's campaign has kept mum on that question. Quinn emphasized Swett's friendship with Shaheen but declined to say whether Swett would exit the race if the former governor entered.
And what was that about Marchand?
Democrat Steve Marchand is looking more and more like a Senate candidate who doesn't plan to exit the race under any circumstances. His stated position is that if Shaheen gets in, he'll get out.

But Marchand has now hired prominent consulting firms:

-- Media: Tom Ochs and John Lapp of McMahon, Squier, Lapp. Lapp is a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Ochs handled Dean's race for chair of the DNC.

-- Direct mail: Ed Peavy and Adnaan Muslim of Mission Control, LLC, who worked on Hodes's campaign last year.

-- Polling: Jill Normington of Bennett, Petts and Normington, who has worked for many Democratic House members and candidates.

And Jay Buckey made it clear earlier that he's not interested in leaving after a Shaheen announcement.

As much as I would love a positive, competitive primary that would drive down Sununu's chances of winning even further, I remain skeptical of my dream coming true.  Though I do note that no issue has been made in the press about a Stephen-Bradley primary in the one race the state elephants (wrongly) think they have a shot at.

No Challenger?
Not yet, anyway, for Paul Hodes.  While Carol Shea-Porter has made Karl Roves' super special target list, the head of the RNCC has no takers for the second district so far, according to Granite Status.  And Charlie Bass 'aint biting:

"I haven't ruled anything out, but, frankly, I think that if the election were held today, the outcome might be worse for me than it was last November. I'm not making any decisions at this point."
Dean Barker :: No Exit? No Challenger?
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No Exit? No Challenger? | 9 comments
I don't see how that follows with Marchand (4.00 / 3)
What is he supposed to do, suspend his campaign until Shaheen makes up her mind?  I was surprised to see DiStaso frame consultant hirings that way.  Does he know something we don't?
I believe Marchand (0.00 / 0)
will stick to his pledge, even though I disagree with it.

What I find most interesting is how often in the press the subject of a "contested primary or a cleared field?" question comes up in the Dem Senate primary race, but how little it comes up in the Stephen - Bradley Repub NH-01 primary race.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
Perhaps (0.00 / 0)
Because Marchand said when he announced his senate run that he would get out if Shaheen gets in and both Marchand and Swett tell people they solicit for endorsements that  they will get out if Shaheen gets in.
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing Bradley-Stephen (0.00 / 0)
is:
  • a game of chicken, each wanting to scare the other out, and
  • a much more factional division if it happens than anything on our side. Stephen is tied to Benson; that will come up.

A bitter fight for the nomination of a tainted party? It's like what they say about faculty politics: they get so vicious because the stakes are so low.

[ Parent ]
Because Bradley is rich... (0.00 / 0)
can self fund his campaign, and has a constitutional right to waste his money any way he sees fit.

Stephen will crush him this time.  It will be a Porter/Stephen race and for Porter to keep that seat there has to be relative Democratic Party team work.  It doesn't have to be perfect.  But the Democratic Party team work has to be pretty close to perfect.

If you get what you want Dean, a feisty Senate Primary, that will have an effect on Porter's seat.  There is no way to tell how much of an effect yet, but in a close race it really could make the difference.

Stephen and Porter will be a very close race.

[ Parent ]
"If you get what you want Dean, (0.00 / 0)
a feisty Senate primary.." -nhpc

"As much as I would love a positive, competitive primary that would drive down Sununu's chances of winning even further, I remain skeptical of my dream coming true." - Dean

[ Parent ]
It really doesn't matter... (0.00 / 0)
If Shaheen gets in she's win anyhow.  But everyone has the right to dream.
I wonder if Stephen (0.00 / 0)
might run against Hodes?

There's no constitutional requirement that he live in the district -- and establishing residency is relatively fast and cheap anyhow.

Wouldn't the GOP be better off using its two experienced candidates to compete separately?

can't imagine it (4.00 / 1)
Stephen is a native of Manchester and has extended family in the greater Manchester area. I'm sure he thinks he can beat Bradley in a one-on-one; the conventional wisdom is that Stephen would have the won nomination in 2002 if it had not been a multi-candidate field. And the first CD is still a much friendlier place for Republicans than is the seond CD. 
[ Parent ]
No Exit? No Challenger? | 9 comments

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