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(I sense a good predictions thread... (part put below the fold by me) - promoted by Dean Barker)
A month is a mighty long time in politics. But it's interesting to consider what may be in the headlines on Wednesday, November 5th. I try not to be in the "prediction" market with lots of guesses. I'd rather call this "expectations," or "projections."
On October 7th, 2006, exactly a month before the General Election of that year, I Blogged about "The Perfect Storm" shaping up for Democrats. This is exactly what I wrote:
"Here in New Hampshire, Democrats have an excellent chance to have 3 of the 5 Governor's Councilors elected, perhaps even 4. The State Senate well could result in 14 Democrats out of 24, possibly even 15 or 16. Democrats in the NH House could pick up 70 seats - - 70 seats - - giving them a margin of 20 or so and allow them to elect the first Democrat House Speaker in nearly a Century."
I ended up being a little short in my "House" expectations -- we got about 20 more. But I was pretty close, closer than most were expecting, especially those following the polls. I continued...
"My betting right now would go with both Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes winning their races. The US House could see a Democrat House Speaker and a Democrat majority in January. I'm not quite so sure about the US Senate, but the Democrats could come within one or two seats there of having a majority."
All that was at a time, a month before the elections, when the polls were showing Republicans were doing fairly okay, and many people discounting Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes. And not many were saying Democrats would take control of Congress.
I might have got lucky, but I wasn't just guessing. The "enthusiasm level" can't be easily measured by polls, and there was a quake happening that year. I think it will happen again in 2008.
For this year, exactly a month before the General Election, I'll stick with my expectations that I came up with about four months ago in my Blogs: Governor John Lynch wins big, Jeanne Shaheen wins, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes win, and Barack Obama-Joe Biden win New Hampshire by 7 percent. Yes -- Obama he does get elected President with Biden as Vice President!
I think we will have 3 Democratic Governor's Councilors, and it could be 4. I see 18 Democratic State Senators, and a House with 262 Democrats. I know that's high, and it could be just 255 or so, but I'll stick with 262.
I arrived at those projections some months ago by taking the 2006 votes throughout the state, and adding a percentage for a Presidential election-year vote turnout, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates because of the amazing turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates due to high registrations of new voters, then adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates based on enthusiasm for our candidates and the intensity of the issues that will encourage people to turn out in extraordinary numbers -- Iraq, health care, the economy.
Maybe that's a bit too much optimism. Perhaps not. But those are the results we can see in the headlines of newspapers on Wednesday, November 5th if we do what needs to be done.
I don't see the intensity or enthusiasm that is on the Democratic side matched on the Republican side -- it looked for a bit that it might happen, but their Palin experiment is Failin'. I think the issues of the need to get our brave troops out of Iraq, the need for health care access for all, the need for oil-free energy development, and the way Republicans in Washington have messed up the economy being the motivating factors in getting people to the polls on November 4th -- to vote Democrat.
But to continue the momentum in 2010, we'll have only two years to deliver and show we've earned it. Democrats will have to act like Democrats -- in New Hampshire and in Washington. I have a feeling we will.