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One Month To Go - My November 4th Election Day "Expectations." What Are Yours?

by: Rep. Jim Splaine

Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 18:44:09 PM EDT
(I sense a good predictions thread... (part put below the fold by me) - promoted by Dean Barker)

A month is a mighty long time in politics.  But it's interesting to consider what may be in the headlines on Wednesday, November 5th.  I try not to be in the "prediction" market with lots of guesses.  I'd rather call this "expectations," or "projections."  

On October 7th, 2006, exactly a month before the General Election of that year, I Blogged about "The Perfect Storm" shaping up for Democrats.  This is exactly what  I wrote:

"Here in New Hampshire, Democrats have an excellent chance to have 3 of the 5 Governor's Councilors elected, perhaps even 4.  The State Senate well could result in 14 Democrats out of 24, possibly even 15 or 16.   Democrats in the NH House could pick up 70 seats - - 70 seats - - giving them a margin of 20 or so and allow them to elect the first Democrat House Speaker in nearly a Century."

I ended up being a little short in my "House" expectations -- we got about 20 more.  But I was pretty close, closer than most were expecting, especially those following the polls. I continued...  

"My betting right now would go with both Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes winning their races.  The US House could see a Democrat House Speaker and a Democrat majority in January.  I'm not quite so sure about the US Senate, but the Democrats could come within one or two seats there of having a majority."

All that was at a time, a month before the elections, when the polls were showing Republicans were doing fairly okay, and many people discounting Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes.  And not many were saying Democrats would take control of Congress.
Rep. Jim Splaine :: One Month To Go - My November 4th Election Day "Expectations." What Are Yours?
I might have got lucky, but I wasn't just guessing.  The "enthusiasm level" can't be easily measured by polls, and there was a quake happening that year.  I think it will happen again in 2008.  

For this year, exactly a month before the General Election, I'll stick with my expectations that I came up with about four months ago in my Blogs:  Governor John Lynch wins big, Jeanne Shaheen wins, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes win, and Barack Obama-Joe Biden win New Hampshire by 7 percent.  Yes -- Obama he does get elected President with Biden as Vice President!

I think we will have 3 Democratic Governor's Councilors, and it could be 4.  I see 18 Democratic State Senators, and a House with 262 Democrats.  I know that's high, and it could be just 255 or so, but I'll stick with 262.

I arrived at those projections some months ago by taking the 2006 votes throughout the state, and adding a percentage for a Presidential election-year vote turnout, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates because of the amazing turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates due to high registrations of new voters, then adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates based on enthusiasm for our candidates and the intensity of the issues that will encourage people to turn out in extraordinary numbers -- Iraq, health care, the economy.

Maybe that's a bit too much optimism.  Perhaps not.  But those are the results we can see in the headlines of newspapers on Wednesday, November 5th if we do what needs to be done.

I don't see the intensity or enthusiasm that is on the Democratic side matched on the Republican side -- it looked for a bit that it might happen, but their Palin experiment is Failin'.  I think the issues of the need to get our brave troops out of Iraq, the need for health care access for all, the need for oil-free energy development, and the way Republicans in Washington have messed up the economy being the motivating factors in getting people to the polls on November 4th -- to vote Democrat.  

But to continue the momentum in 2010, we'll have only two years to deliver and show we've earned it.  Democrats will have to act like Democrats -- in New Hampshire and in Washington.  I have a feeling we will.

So, what do YOU think?  
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One Month To Go - My November 4th Election Day "Expectations." What Are Yours? | 17 comments
After the obligatory (4.00 / 2)
"we can't count on any anything happening by itself, so we have to work hard and contribute!" disclaimer:

I smell a national Presidential landslide. The close calls in the US Senate race will all fall our way, with a few surprises too.

In New Hampshire I think the margins will be stronger than your projections. Obama and Shaheen both by double digits.

The Executive Council races still worry me, though. The office itself would be Mysterious to most voters if they thought of it at all. The district boundaries are odd - we have lawn signs for two different districts in Keene, with John Shea and St. Hilaire both getting out-of-district attention. (It helps cover up my own embarrassment for thinking he was our EC). I could see it fall back to 3-2 Republican.

And both of our projections include an implicit "The disappearance of the straight ticket option will largely be a non-story."

Very good point on the EC confusion, (0.00 / 0)
The Executive Council races still worry me, though. The office itself would be Mysterious to most voters if they thought of it at all.

I think most voters would be foggy on the boundaries, and probably the function of the Council itself.

There's an excellent graphic resource here at the EC site, along with more general info.

[ Parent ]
Executive Council (0.00 / 0)
The Executive Council is probably the most Unknown and underrated of all State elected offices.

Voters are very foggy on boundries , I get "I'm not in your district , I'm in District x". Most people have no Idea which district they fall in.  A lot of my campaign is educating the people about what the council is and does and how important it is.

On a side note , I plan on being one of the 3 Executive Councilors this year.  District 4 is going to go Blue!!!!.  I have been out in the District and in Manchester alot and have received a very positive response.

Bob Bruce

www.bobbruce.org

[ Parent ]
too early in the Morning (0.00 / 0)
On a side note , I plan on being one of the 5 Executive Councilors this year.  District 4 is going to go Blue!!!!.  I have been out in the District and in Manchester alot and have received a very positive response.


[ Parent ]
You Can Do It Bob! (0.00 / 0)
Bob -- You're my "fourth" projection on the list for Governor's Council -- I think you can do it this year.  They need you there!
[ Parent ]
There was a Sentinel profile of EC candidate (0.00 / 0)
Dan St. Hilaire, a Republican who is challenging John Shea. They asked him why he was running for Executive Councilor and he said, because state Senator or state rep is too much of a time commitment.

[ Parent ]
There's going to be (at least) one more GOP rally (0.00 / 0)
When is the next debate? If I were McCain, I would go absolutely "gloves off" in debate two.  Ignore every question, turn it into a "What has Senator Obama done! Five and a half years!" etc. Trump all objections with "I didn't agree to this. My team did. Let's talk man-to-man."

Essentially, a bar brawl. Force his team to rally around him.

In the aftermath, "Is this man stable enough to run the country?" questions will come up.  Let them.

Put the press on the spot. All those McCain temper stories they never reported? Well why not, Mr. Alter? Did you have a three-hour exclusive scheduled for the following week? Message: the press is hypocritical, they just love Obama. (I don't know if Jonathan Alter held anything back, but I know other reporters did.)

So then when this is at its peak, start the "redemption" tour. Speak nicely. Be very presidential in the third debate. Smile at Obama, apologize even. Remind everybody what an old charmer you can be.

I wouldn't say it out loud if I didn't think this some version of this only path.  McCain can't swift boat -- not that he hasn't tried. We should expect it. Or to paraphase the movie Seven: "If John McCain removes his head and a UFO flies out, I want you to have expected it."

Technically I think Seven is called Se7en, but my bandwidth isn't wide enough to check at home in mid-comment.


Next debate is Tuesday (0.00 / 0)
My source is our left margin.
[ Parent ]
Point taken (0.00 / 0)
I wasn't looking for a literal answer, but fair enough.

So there are eight days between the two final debates, including a weekend. That may not be enough time for my scenario. Ideally, from McCain's point of view, he'd have two weeks to go crazy and then bring himself back. Lose himself to find himself, so to speak.

So, smart guy, what would you do if you were McCaint? Remember, he was denied this once. Then he ate crow -- he made crinkly faces in the form of press leaks the whole time, but he ate it -- for eight years. Forget the five and a half for the moment, think of the eight. What now, with his last chip on red? He aint going to take the high road, unless he figures out a way to go so low it looks like up to him.


[ Parent ]
30 days of (0.00 / 0)
Ayers, Wright, and Rezko. Maybe some not so subtle race baiting as well.

Hope > Fear




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[ Parent ]
Consensus of pundits (0.00 / 0)
The next debate is a town hall format. On PBS, CNN & ABC, the consensus is that McCain does NOT want a voter asking him, "Why are you being so negative?"

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com
[ Parent ]
He doesn't care (4.00 / 1)
The choice -- in his mind -- is between momentary embarrassment and his career ending without becoming president. He ran once, came close to nominating, and patiently waited eight years to run again.

The pundits are WRONG. Politically speaking, he's capable of anything right now. Anything.

[ Parent ]
I think it will get very nasty (4.00 / 2)
But not because he has calculated that this is his only chance to win.

The more I see of McCain the more I think he is an unstable, angry man. I believe we will see an increasingly manic campaign.

[ Parent ]
Palin 2012? (4.00 / 2)
Will will be seeing Sarah touring the Granite State next summer getting ready for 2012?

Hope > Fear




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Ask Judd (4.00 / 1)
Campaigning for him would be the only plausible reason for the Governor of Alaska to visit.

Standard disclaimer: She might be vice president.

She might be president.

[ Parent ]
"You know, the media (4.00 / 2)
and the pundits say I should only campaign for people runnin' for big, high-profile offices. But when my pal Al Baldasaro said, 'Sarah, can you give me a hand with my state representative race?' I said 'The media may not like it, but I'll be there, Al !' "
[ Parent ]
Sarah Failin' In 2012? (0.00 / 0)
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
[ Parent ]
One Month To Go - My November 4th Election Day "Expectations." What Are Yours? | 17 comments

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