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Andy Smith, director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire, said it's important to remember the premise that most people don't know who their Congress person is and tend to vote along party lines.
...Coming from a grassroots campaign in the 2006 election, Shea-Porter had finally gained name recognition, something Smith said is very important when it comes to re-election bids.
"Once they have name recognition it's very easy for them to win," he said.
Smith also said Shea-Porter's attempt at a second term made her vulnerable, in that the possibility of someone new challenging her was a concern. Fortunately for her that someone was Bradley and voters already knew what to expect.
Here's my summary:
1) Most voters didn't know Carol Shea-Porter's name.
2) Most voters vote for the Democrat if they are a Democrat, a Republican if Republican.
3) Forget #1: Carol Shea-Porter's name is now known.
4) It's very easy to win if voters know your name.
5) Because Jeb ran before, voters know his name too.
6) Forget #4: That we know Jeb's name too makes it harder for him to win.
Seriously, there's no snark intended here. Help me understand what Andy Smith means, because for the life of me I can't figure it out.
My own take: Carol Shea-Porter won because a majority of first district voters share her values as she expressed them by her votes, because she is very attentive to her constituents, and because she is fearless about having a dialogue with anyone, no matter their political stripe or agenda. Because despite not taking special interest PAC money, she raised more than any other Congressperson in New Hampshire history, and in small-dollar donations.
And she won by a significant margin, despite a perpetually hostile and partisan statewide newspaper that has attacked her for the entirety of her political life, an opponent who reveled in mudslinging and falsehoods, an NRCC totally demoralized about the national picture and therefore extra-focused on getting bragging rights for a few token races they thought they could win, a corrosive and incorrect "fluke" narrative about her first victory by pundits from Andy Smith to Jennifer Donahue, and a political base not located in her district's largest voter-rich city of Manchester.
You know what? I'm seriously starting to think that Carol is the strongest Democrat in the state of New Hampshire, because she has had so many forces working against her for two cycles now, and she has conquered them all without losing a shred of her integrity. And while I suspect she doesn't want it, I see no reason when taking a cold hard look at the conditions of her races realtive to our other fantastic Dems in the state why she isn't at the top of everyone's short list to ascend Mt. Gregg.