Andy Smith on Carol Shea-Porter's Win

I disagree (0.00 / 0)

with Smith's premise:

Andy Smith, director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire, said it's important to remember the premise that most people don't know who their Congress person is and tend to vote along party lines.

I don't believe that most people don't know who their Congressperson is. It's virtually impossible not to know, with so much media focus on the Congressional races every 2 years.

as an occasionally clever person wrote this week:

In 2006, Shea-Porter beat Jeb Bradley, and that was explained away as voters hating Bush and being angry about the war. Two years later, she stomped Bradley again, and now it's being explained away as riding the Obama wave. The same old tired pundits don't take a moment to think that perhaps we voters like our Congresswoman, and we approve of the job she's doing for us. Even though she's been elected (quite handily) to a second term, the punditocracy of NH is still dismissing her as a "fluke." Jeb Bradley's two terms were not written off that way. He wasn't described as "riding the Bush wave."

Most of the NH political analysts are stuck firmly in the past, waiting for it to return.  

member of the professional left  

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by: susanthe @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 10:38:49 AM CST

Pundits live by the word. They have to believe that (0.00 / 0)

their words are more valuable than deeds.  Otherwise, if they didn't believe that the world can be moved by their pronouncements, how could they justify making a living by spouting off?

So, the myths they weave are self-serving.

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by: hannah @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 10:47:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

If that's the case - I should be rich! n/t (0.00 / 0)

member of the professional left  

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by: susanthe @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 11:15:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, yeah, IF she isn't picked for a higher office before then. (0.00 / 0)

But, to answer your question about Andy Smith: he's an idiot.

On the other hand, Carol didn't "win."  The citizens of New Hampshire made an informed decision that they'd been well served by their Congresswoman and decided to retain her.

You see, a lot of confusion can be cleared up when you are clear about who's actually doing what.  The mythical perspective that citizens are easy to manipulate with funny ads and exhortations is really demeaning.  It's also misleading.

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by: hannah @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 10:42:25 AM CST

The Obama wave (4.00 / 2)

Another discrepancy here of interest -- CSP is riding the Obama wave? Really -- by which we mean a wave based on the personality of Obama?

Well, that's odd. Because the story I heard all election was that it was surprising that Obama was not doing better given how high the generic Dem party favorabilities were.

And I actually agree with that. I am very happy we have Obama is here, but I think the story is not an Obama wave, but a Democratic wave that was so strong it propelled our first Black president into the White House in a landslide. A man whose middle name is Hussein.

This was not a coattails election, ala Clinton or Reagan. This looks, feels, and smells like an realignment from the bottom up.  

And to say that wave exists is to admit the obvious -- wave voters voted CSP in for the values she held.

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by: Mike Caulfield @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 14:23:25 PM CST

It's a dirty job... (4.00 / 2)

but SOMEBODY has to read Andy Smith's polls. He doesn't:

Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her.

Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter: Favorable 35%, Unfavorable 32%, Neutral 9%, Don't Know 24%

That's from July 2008.

But Andy claims, "Most people don't know who their Congressman is."  

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by: elwood @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 15:34:00 PM CST

Facts are stupid things. eom (0.00 / 0)

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Sat Nov 08, 2008 at 18:56:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Andy has never been able to wrap his head around CSP's success (4.00 / 2)

Remember, this is the guy who in 2006 refused to include her name in his initial polling because she wasn't a "serious" contender like Jim Craig or (and I am not making this up) Gary Dodds.


America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

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by: Peter Sullivan @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:55:06 PM CST