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NH-Sen: The Village is Sorry for Us and Plan B Paul

by: Dean Barker

Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 07:24:25 AM EDT
Please sit down before reading this (Congressdaily; sorry, subs. only. But I quoted all the relevant parts):
Despite two successful campaign cycles that left them with 60 votes in the Senate, Democrats have had difficulty recruiting their candidates of choice for a half-dozen key 2010 races.

...Democrats so far have failed to land their first-choice Senate candidates in six states -- Kansas, South Dakota, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire. Republicans had to go to Plan B in Pennsylvania, Colorado, New York and Nevada.

...Other top hopefuls on Democratic wish lists who passed on Senate races include state Attorney General Roy Cooper and Rep. Heath Shuler, both of North Carolina, and Gov. John Lynch of New Hampshire. While Lynch topped many wish lists, few Democrats expected he would run and they view Rep. Paul Hodes as a strong replacement.

Yeah, I guess Plan B Paul will have to do. If only the Village could just arrange things they way they think is best for us, everything would just be so much better.

But seriously: leaving aside the question of what a Senator Lynch would mean in policy and platform (a huge thing to leave aside), Lynch's high approval numbers do not translate into an easy senate victory, for all kinds of reasons.  That's not a knock on him at all, but an acknowledgment of the "competent manager" way he's governed versus running a senate campaign on issues that contrast deeply into left and right. But I'm no Villager, so what do I know?
Dean Barker :: NH-Sen: The Village is Sorry for Us and Plan B Paul
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NH-Sen: The Village is Sorry for Us and Plan B Paul | 5 comments
I'm regularly amazed at the lazy amateurism of the Village (0.00 / 0)
The level of analysis is simply: "Lynch won statewide with 70%! He would be the strongest candidate for the Senate."

Compare that to the sort of evaluation you can hear from fans about a potential baseball trade:

He takes a while to get started but he has a strong bat in the fall. He can move fast - he'd be good at catching flies, but he can't throw to the infield. I think he's a good fit for a team with the right gaps - but what the Bashers need right now is more run production and medium relief pitching.

The pundits aren't even interested in that level of analysis.

The pundits have a different perspective or preconceived notion, (0.00 / 0)
if you will.  Like Republicans, who can't see people as individuals and have to consider them as one of a group of similars ("group think" as opposed to self-direction), the pundits have adopted the frame in which the Congress and Courts are supports for the executive and the check/balance function resides in the political parties where the contests between ideas are supposed to be fought.  Then when the "winners" get to Congress they're prepared to be supportive in a bi-partisan manner.  
This frame isn't working out real well for Republicans at the moment because a Democratic executive isn't looking for the Congress to be a rubber stamp and enable him to rule the country.  Congress is supposed to do some work and Republicans don't know how.

And then there's the reality that when the electorate is involved in developing policy at the grassroots level, there's really not much for the national political parties to do.  At least not in the sense of wielding power.  The people having power is a really scary concept when you don't trust most people.

Maybe I'm just out of the loop... (0.00 / 0)
But really, did anyone who knew anything seriously think that Lynch would consider a run for Senate this year?  

I mean, sure, he has to go on the preliminary list of possibilities, just on the basis of being a well known NH Democrat.  But everyone I know crossed him off that list almost immediately.  Has he given any indication (publicly) that he has any desire to have a legislative position in the future?

Republican pushback (4.00 / 2)
This story is Republican pushback because of the problems they have with incumbents who are't running for re-election or who are in trouble due to personal scandal and some of their own recruiting issues.  In other words - not worth much disucssion.  

 

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

Poor analysis. (4.00 / 2)
Governor Lynch's popularity as Governor comes from the fact that he as seen as an effective technocrat who's good at dealing with things like floods (and he is).  It also helps that he largely steers clear of the kind of hot button issue that dominates every day of a campaign for federal office.

I like the Governor and I think his support is genuine, but I also think that most of his supporters would be thoroughly confused by his mounting a campaign for the US Senate--he'd have to get an entirely new platform to do so.  For him, the shift wouldn't make sense, and I think that's pretty evident to anyone who knows more about the Governor than his margins of re-election.

--
New Hampshire's stimulus: a train to Boston.
Visit NHBTI.org to learn about the NH Capitol Corridor project.

NH-Sen: The Village is Sorry for Us and Plan B Paul | 5 comments
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