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Blue Dog resistance to the health care plans generated by the president and leading congressional Democrats has been widely discussed. Most commentators have treated their resistance as a savvy political move to protect their jobs in conservative districts and use the example of 1994's congressional elections as an example of the risks they run supporting the president.
The 1994 elections are widely misunderstood, but one thing is manifestly clear - Stopping the Clinton health care plan may have hurt the administration, but it did nothing to help Democrats representing conservative districts. We can argue about whether passage of the bill would have helped Blue Dogs - it may have, it may have not - but after its defeat they were decimated.
The results speak for themselves. Of the 54 seats lost to Democrats in the 1994 election, 22 were from states that either voted for McCain in 2008 or were parts of the old Confederacy.* In short nearly half of the losses where inflicted by less than 1/3 of the nation's population. Five small states** were left with no Democratic reps. White Democrats in this group of states took the hardest hit and North Carolina, the nation's 10th largest state, sent only one Democrat to the House. Whatever else may be said, it is abundantly clear that Democrats from conservative district were not saved by the bloody death of the Clinton plan.
It has often been observed that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is an indication of insanity. Let's hope, for their sakes' as much as our own, that the Blue Dogs get over this looniness. Bill Clinton and Nancy Pelosi were still in DC after the '94 elections while Dave McCurdy went back to Arkansas. President Obama and Speaker Pelosi will be back in January 2011. It's up to the Blue Dogs to decide if they will join them. It's not a case of having to hang together or hanging separately - Obama and Pelosi won't be hanging at all. The Blue Dogs need to realize that this is a case of hanging together as Democrats - or hanging alone.
*President Obama won three states in the old Confederacy (FL., VA., and NC.).
** IA., KS., NE., NV., WY., and our own Granite State.