NH-Sen: Reaching the Other 39%

Another point (4.00 / 1)

The UNH poll oversampled men 208 to 200 in the Ayotte/Hodes head to head. Women favored Hodes over Ayotte.  

Why do the samples for Ayotte v. Hodes and Lamontagne v. Hodes a total of 408 but Mahoney v. Hodes 456? And the latter has an equal nunber of men and women? I think there is something wrong with these numbers. Seriously, I think they should review them, something is wrong.

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:43:16 PM CDT

Excellent catch about women. (0.00 / 0)

That's the opposite of the Rasmussen numbers.

As for the numbers not adding up, they never seem to add up exactly.  And I can never figure it out.

---

by: Dean Barker @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:45:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oops, I mean (0.00 / 0)

That's the opposite of the Rasmussen ARG numbers.  

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:47:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In the survey: (0.00 / 0)

Due to a programming error in the rotation of candidate names, 48 random respondents were not asked trial heat questions about Ayotte vs. Hodes and Lamontagne vs. Hodes. As this occurred at random, this should have no impact on the survey findings.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:51:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But it does have an impact (4.00 / 1)

Because the gender numbers are off, and women trend Democratic.

   

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:57:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, it's sloopy and bogus. (0.00 / 0)

"As this occurred at random, this should have no impact."

What if 90% of the results were lost "at random." Would there be "no effect"? Of course not - poll accuracy depends on sample size.

And if you have a sample size of 48, what is the margin of error with a 90% confidence level that the sample is indeed a representative subset?  Double-digits, I think.

Smith deserves some credit for transparency. But that openness shows a really poor polling operation.

---

by: elwood @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:04:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If mere randomness is sufficient, why bother stratifying? (0.00 / 0)

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 23:21:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Women also vote at a significantly higher rate than men-- so if you want to have predictive accuracy you should oversample women. (0.00 / 0)

There are more women than men alive because of lower mortality rates and a greater percentage of woman vote. As said above they also vote Democratic at a significantly higher rate than men. The only easily apparent conclusion is that an under sampling of women ( unless corrected) will significantly hurt a Democratic candidate.

That said , I think Andy Smith is a smart and capable person, so I wonder why this would happen.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 18:40:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Did you flip the numbers, Dean? (4.00 / 1)

Pindell reports Ayotte leading in the UNH poll.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:46:51 PM CDT

Thanks! (0.00 / 0)

Yikes - major typo.  I had them all flipped, b/c I put Hodes' name first by mistake. Fixed now.

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 19:49:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2nd District ferreted out (0.00 / 0)

Buried in the survey's report is this interesting tidbit-
Net Fav/Unfav in the 2nd CD with one declared and one about to declare...

Katrina Swett -5
Annie Kuster  +4

as Burt would say, know I'm sayin'?

Swett's net negative rating was pretty remarkable.
12% fav-17% unfav. The only one of 13 candidates tested to have higher UNFAVORABLE rating than favorable.Compare this to Jennifer Palin Horn who actually had higher favs AND lower unfavs (13/10). Is there no justice ? Oofah.

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:08:40 PM CDT

Nice, JB (0.00 / 0)

Given that the campaign has barely started, and that all of these candidates currently have name recognition on par with that of the Pats' backup center (and even most of that is due to family members), I hardly think that these numbers mean a damn thing.

But your attitude is pretty damn disturbing, Jon.  I'm beginning to wonder why some of Annie's supporters (namely, you and Burt) feel they need to tear their opponents down rather than tout their own candidates leadership.  Pretty pathetic.  

Do you WANT a divisive primary?  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:18:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

huh ? (0.00 / 0)

read the numbers DD...is there anything untrue or illogical or mean in saying these things came out of the survey? I think not. Is UNH asking questions skewed in a way that reading the results is divisive ? I hadn't thought of that.

By the way I was timing your response...pretty good...a hypernegativity increase in under 10 minutes.


It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:28:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I choose not to play in the mud (0.00 / 0)

. . . but I'm not afraid of it.  Trust me.  

I know Katrina Swett doesn't go after fellow Democrats as a matter of policy, but I'm not affiliated with her campaign.  I'd rather focus my energies on Charlie.  But if Annie's supporters follow your lead -- and spew the type of negativity found in so many of your posts about Jeanne and others -- then I will respond.

From what I know about Ann McLane Kuster and Colin, I have every reason to believe that they will run a clean and fair campaign, one that emphasizes her obvious strengths.  I hope they do.  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:37:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2 pts (IMO) (4.00 / 3)

1. You're absolutely right that the name recognition numbers are so low that favorables / unfavorables are meaningless. The margin of error here is huge.

2. But this isn't personal attacks and mudslinging. It's an entirely appropriate topic - once there's meaningful data to cite.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:48:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

au contraire mon frere (0.00 / 0)

If you want to lump me in a group or down rate me, go ahead. It shows the paucity of your agrumentation.

When you say,"Given that the campaign has barely started", I'm not sure for whom, and to what you refer. There have been real events in New Hampshire, multiple events in fact that all the announced, unannounced and perhaps to announce soon candidates have attended, including the Convention. Like Granny D's birthday party. In any case, for those without boatloads of cached cash the campaign has been hard underway for two quarters, also known as six months. With a primary in 11 months and a general in 13, you are dead wrong on count number one.

On number two, a blanket assertion of the meaningless numbers, you have some credence...but let's be real shall we? If only the people who know you respond, those people certainly can be seen as having a valid opinion. If asked the same questions, which they were, then as a yard stick these numbers are fodder to be crunched and analyzed.

If this were the Spring, and the numbers look much different for either candidate, it will be much more telling. But as snapshot of a candidate who has been in the mix with her family for years its fair to ask...why aren't Katrina's numbers higher in Fav/Unfav, but more succinctly and especially higher in pure recognition ? She's gotten a lot of ink as the wife and daughter of Congressmen, and Ambassadors, and in her own right as a Human Rights Activist from Bow, and a bona fide candidate...she ran for Congress in 2002, and had a run at Senate in '08 cycle.
To compare her name rec with Annie who's running her first race is an absurdity.  

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:49:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yup (0.00 / 0)

why aren't Katrina's numbers higher in Fav/Unfav, but more succinctly and especially higher in pure recognition ? She's gotten a lot of ink as the wife and daughter of Congressmen, and Ambassadors, and in her own right as a Human Rights Activist from Bow, and a bona fide candidate...she ran for Congress in 2002, and had a run at Senate in '08 cycle.

Since you asked. . . at least 17% of NH voters wouldn't touch a Swett with a ten-foot pole because of Dick's courageous vote against the assault weapons ban fifteen years ago -- a vote that you enthusiastically supported at the time.  I'm sure you remember the vitriol that characterized the '94 campaign because Dick had the audacity to do what was right.  Ironic that you're now criticizing her because that vote alienated the gun nut community.

Annie has never run for office, and Katrina ran a brief and underpublicized congressional campaign seven years ago.  Both have family members who are far better known than they are, and whose brands drive far more support in NH than they do as individual candidates.  Neither candidate has run paid media -- Katrina hasn't even announced yet -- and both are little known outside a small group of Democratic activists (e.g., folks who attended Granny D's birthday party).

I don't think it's too much to expect a positive campaign.  Personally, while Katrina is a good friend, my only only preference is for candidate most able to beat Bass to run against Bass.  That may be Katrina, or Annie, or Rep. DeJoie, or some other candidate who hasn't even entered the race yet.  But I think all the candidates should have the opportunity to present a constructive case to voters -- without having to deal with the garbage that you and Burt like to spew (comparing Katrina to Jennifer Horn, etc.).  

And if any Democratic candidate runs an attack dog campaign that tears us down, then I will go after that candidate.  Mark my words.  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:06:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

save the drama for your mama n/t (0.00 / 0)

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:08:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Leave my mama out of this (0.00 / 0)

. . . another nice and thoughtful response.  I expect more from you, Emperor.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:10:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

DD I love your passion (4.00 / 1)

but you should refrain from throwing down the gauntlet in so dastardly a fashion. Is passion clouding your vision?
As Elwood implies, 'this is not personal, its just business'.
I am serious as pie about keeping the 2nd. I helped win that sucker. I never saw you there. You or your camp for that matter. I wore out shoes finally breaking Charlie's hold on  the district. As much as you jaw about it all the time, I deserve your respect for my opinions, ideas and work. I don't deserve your threats. We won it with Paul, and I agree we should focus on the best candidate to hold on to that seat. But again I never saw you there. Not in 2004, or 2006, or 2008. Did you knock on a door, make a call, attend a rally ? I must have missed that. If I am off base I apologize in absentia.

this isn't personal attacks and mudslinging. It's an entirely appropriate topic - once there's meaningful data to cite.

I slung nothing. You sir flung dung.


It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:35:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Apology Accepted (0.00 / 0)

But again I never saw you there. Not in 2004, or 2006, or 2008. Did you knock on a door, make a call, attend a rally ? I must have missed that. If I am off base I apologize in absentia.

I did considerable policy and opposition research for Paul in 2004, took a combined 3 1/2 weeks of vacation time to knock on doors in 2004 and 2008, and gave Paul money in each of the last four campaigns.  Just because I wasn't in Bow (or, for that matter, don't live in New Hampshire anymore) doesn't mean I wasn't there.  If you don't believe me, ask Congressman Hodes.

And, for the record, I don't have a "camp".  I don't know what the f*** a "camp" is, although I assume you're talking about Dick and Katrina Swett -- both of whom gave money and lent support to Paul in every campaign, as well.

Not that any of this is relevant.  What IS relevant is that Paul didn't win his elections by running negative campaigns against other Democrats.  He did so by uniting the party and going after Republicans -- something that, apparently, you and Burt have a very hard time understanding.

As for threats, well. . . don't worry.  I have no desire to criticize Ann McLane Kuster.  The only reason I would do so is if she focuses her campaign on tearing down other candidates, something in which -- from all I know of Ann and Colin -- her campaign is too classy to engage.  I expect it will stay that way.

And Elwood did NOT say "it's just a business," because  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:54:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

To finish (0.00 / 0)

And Elwood did NOT say "it's just a business," because it's not.  In progressive politics, we don't tear down our allies for a little more market share.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:56:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is Katrina running? (0.00 / 0)

Spill if you got something, DD!

I just saw this quote on Facebook:

"I get up every morning determined to both change the world and to have one hell of a good time. Sometimes, this makes planning the day difficult." - E.B. White

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by: JimC @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:56:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry (4.00 / 1)

Aside from a couple of brief conversations about the Lantos Foundation, I have not spoken with Katrina since she and Dick put me up during the last two weeks of '08 campaign.  Don't know anything about her campaign strategy.  I just know what I read in the papers. . . .

Nice quote.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:01:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

great quote! (0.00 / 0)

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:16:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

One more thing. . . (0.00 / 0)

I am serious as pie about keeping the 2nd

Never heard THAT one before!

As for not respecting your opinions. . . . I respect them when they are constructive.  I don't respect them when they are meant to tear down fellow Democrats.  And it has nothing to do with how many Saturdays you spent canvassing.

But since you obviously care so much about my volunteer efforts, I would be glad to furnish you with additional references regarding my campaign activities on Paul's behalf during the past three cycles.  Although I really shouldn't have to.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:13:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Confirmation (4.00 / 2)

Dartmouth Dem took his vacation to work to elect Democrats in NH. His residence may be outside the state now, but he returns to help when the leaves start to fall. So, that dog don't hunt.


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 07:17:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

my mistake n/t (0.00 / 0)

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:01:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Removed troll rating (4.00 / 2)

...due to apology for error (see below)

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 07:43:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

its still there n/t (0.00 / 0)

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 07:23:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Taken Down (0.00 / 0)

I took down the "DD I Love Your Passion" troll rating on Tuesday. . . . The other one re: Katrina-Horn was a tough call - I still feel strongly that your approach was unwarranted and counter-productive - but you explained yourself, so I took that one down, too.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 11:00:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Love is in the air (0.00 / 0)

 "You must put Love into action in your life. No judging-- No resentments-- all patience-- all power-- all supply." - Reminders from God to the Emperor

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 11:57:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wait til the ALCS. . . . (0.00 / 0)

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 12:23:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"read my lipstick" the campaign is underway (0.00 / 1)

since someone shooed Halloran away I thought I'd post this for him...

http://emilyslist.org/blog/
Ann McLane Kuster, NH-02
The Nashua Telegraph recently reported that "Democratic congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster is on a roll." And NH Political Report has had similar words of praise, saying she's proving herself in this campaign and giving her two "up arrows" in a row. Not a bad beginning for this up-and-comer running for a critical open seat.

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 16:02:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

and the troll is for what ? (0.00 / 0)

that is the name of Emily's list blog

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 19:45:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Are you looking for a rationale? (4.00 / 1)

Good luck with that.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 22:05:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm innocent! n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 20:01:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

far from it n/t (4.00 / 1)

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Oct 07, 2009 at 22:15:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is it safe? n/t (0.00 / 0)

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:23:44 PM CDT

God is Good, Brother Mitchell n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:29:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here you go again (0.00 / 0)

I stand by my statements David. As one who works to instill nonviolence in others, you should listen to a little of your own advice. Discussing favorable/unfavorable numbers, or name recognition is what we do here. Those numbers, which were just on WMUR, (which is in New Hampshire) are news, and talking about them is not is not crossing a line. Its called blogging.

Your rude dismissiveness seems to always rise in support of one cause and one family. Tom was a great personage to have known and to have worked for, and you are a loyal friend in return. That's great, but I don't owe you or anybody anything on that score other than what I think and feel. Nor will I take your ratings abuse. This is twice. The last time was about money and its importance in the 2nd district race. You were warned then by the admin., remember ? You accused Avard of it last week, you know what it is. ...so...untroll me

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:03:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I disagree (0.00 / 0)

JB, you accused me of not working or contributing to Paul's campaign's, and you had absolutely no foundation for doing so.  If you apologize for that, then I will un-troll rate that comment.

And, in the first instance, you used a diary on the Senate race as an opportunity to compare Katrina to Jennifer Horn (and on her birthday, no less!).  

And this has nothing to do with Tom Lantos -- I troll rated unfair hits on Mark Fernald when he was in the race, and would do the same if Rep. DeJoie or Ms. Kuster are slammed.  

Ann McLane Kuster, from everything I have heard and read about her, is an extremely impressive candidate, one who is surrounding herself with a strong campaign team and is articulating her support for progressive values.  Folks like Colin and KD have been blogging about this, and have been very persuasive.  She is a compelling candidate.

You, apparently, have chosen a different path.  And, when you do so, it will be met with a response, whether you like it or not.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 05:43:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

minor point (0.00 / 0)

You troll rated me prior to my comments about your presence, prescience or lack of same. That being said I apologize for my error. I suggest however that you thicken your skin a bit...if we talk about the % of someone's out of state contributions vs in-state, or their poll numbers, it is in bounds. Drawing conclusions not supported by the numbers would be an ad hominem, personal attack. Questioning someone's viability as a candidate is not a personal attack.  

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 07:22:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

"One Family" (0.00 / 0)

Your rude dismissiveness seems to always rise in support of one cause and one family.

When you and Burt attacked Sen. Shaheen two years ago, I troll rated those comments, too.  Same concept, same principle.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 06:05:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Love It (4.00 / 1)

I say nothing and DD throws mud at me anyway!

Is there a mirror someone could lend the anonymous one?  

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 06:32:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Only anonymous to you, Burt (0.00 / 0)

Everyone else on here knows who I am. . . . But, if you're so bothered by my faux anonymity, feel free to call me Dave.

And, regarding the mirror comment, I have never attacked Ann McLane Kuster nor any other Democratic candidate for office.  You, on the other hand:

http://www.bluehampshire.com/d...

. . . and many other examples.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 06:45:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

"I have never attacked any...candidate for office" (0.00 / 0)

So if I get this right, If I ran for something, Dave, you would immediately cease attacking me?  

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 09:40:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

stop him before he runs again !!! (4.00 / 3)

just kidding Burt, just kidding...
here's the thing about DD..as much as we go at it...if I saw him on the street right now I would go hug him, because he is passionate about politics and causes, and he has put it all out there over and over(thanks KS for the reminder)...admit it Burt...like me, like you, when he feels a certain way he does not hold back.

We may not agree on everything, and I know in fact he's torn at your innards on a regular basis, but he is a good guy to have in your foxhole.  

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:08:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Long Live the Emperor! (4.00 / 1)

Thanks, JB. I feel the same way about you, too, my friend.  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 11:17:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It Depends (0.00 / 0)

Burt, I have never criticized you without having first been provoked by a ridiculous broadside against a fellow Democrat - usually Jeanne Shaheen, but Katrina Swett more recently. (the Lincoln diary being an exception).

If you don't engage on this behavior, then I will not respond, whether you are a candidate for office or not.  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 12:36:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bar too high (4.00 / 2)

Yo D,
There has to be a means to differentiate. We can't go around blowing smoke up each others' asses.

I flinched at the Jennifer Palin Horn bit, but the rest is solid number crunching.

You know I'm for Annie. Not sure how I can explain it to you fully by simply illuminating Annie's positives. At some point I will have to tell you what I DON'T like about Katrina or John or whoever.

When the name carries a (R), how we say it is fairly unbridled. Though apparently fat jokes are way uncool. I'm paunchy, so I can live with this rule.

I'm gonna piss you off in the near future, my friend. Can't see any other way. Especially, imho, because you have set the bar artificially high.

You do remember "Sleeping Giant Stirs?" Ahhhhh, the Fall of 2007. Twas a grand parade.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

---

by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:04:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm punchy (4.00 / 1)

And paunchy.

---

by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:09:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm Sisco n/t (0.00 / 0)

It is labour indeed that puts the difference on everything.  ~John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1690

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 13:16:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This gets to my point (4.00 / 1)

about use of the term "attack." People throw it around far too easily. We ought to be able to discuss negative stuff, within reason, without having that called an attack.

Otherwise ... zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

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by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:17:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Solid numbers, not so much (4.00 / 1)

I'm with elwood upthread.

My gut says the tend will hold, but the data is sketchy. A point does not a line make, but I have my own secret squirrel, ear to the rail polling data.

The tea leaves are settling.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 10:26:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Understand (4.00 / 1)

....and I respect the fact that good people will see the line drawn in different places. But, at the very least, we should let our three (or more) candidates make their cases before we fuss about their differences.

And, while fat jokes are uncool, it is still appropriate to say that Charlie Bass looks like Golum (right?)

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 12:31:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why wait? (4.00 / 1)

You said,

we should let our three (or more) candidates make their cases before we fuss about their differences.

Tactically, why would I want to let anyone out of the gate? Shouldn't the Genie be kept in the bottle?

2007 was so odd. The genii flew right back in? Though one grabbed the leprechaun's prize before she went back. :v)

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 12:52:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Jennifer Horn is in (4.00 / 3)

So there, JBB> DD and SleepyGuy have both Jennifer and Charlie to talk about.

Advice from the neutral party: keep it positive. The primary in this race is just a few weeks before the general, different from the '08 presidential primary.  I don't see Annie or Katrina or John getting negative or nasty, it is the supporters who usually cause problems, and the next thing you know a Republican is elected. No need for it.  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 13:29:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

VABBY does that (0.00 / 0)

Oh, check that. Somebody over there at NHDP churns the organ about Horn/Bass.

Who is gonna sort the candidates? Checks and balances, Kathy.


www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 13:55:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The voters n/t (0.00 / 0)

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:00:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shut the blog down, Dean. n/t (4.00 / 2)

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:02:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ha! n/t (0.00 / 0)

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:09:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Advice from an even more neutral party (0.00 / 0)

Keep it real.

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by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:07:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Positive isn't real? n/t (0.00 / 0)

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:10:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not when it's exclusive (0.00 / 0)

Candidates are people too.

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by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 14:11:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Show me the beanbag. (4.00 / 1)

AG Coakley was For the Death Penalty Before she was against it.

by: HeartlandDem
Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:14:17 PM EDT

(Both Coakley and Capuano take it on the chin in this thread. Personally, I call the debate a draw. - promoted by Bob)
-snip

I see one NH-2 candidate, in state, working hard to meet and listen to voters. The fundraising efforts are superior. Kuster is moving, steady, methodical, focused.

She has support that stretches from mountain to river glen. That support comes from a grassroots network developed, in part, from her hard work organizing for then Senator Obama. That experience has developed in her a knowledge of winning, modern campaign strategies. With this knowledge, she has staffed up with top notch professionals. This team knows how to chart a winning course.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 15:15:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

THAT is exactly what folks should be doing now (4.00 / 1)

. . . providing reasons for supporting one candidate without disparaging the others.  And your rationale is very compelling!  

Per the earlier discussion:  It is possible to cite contrasts between the candidates without implying (or overtly suggesting) that the opposition is a bad candidate, a bad progressive, or a bad person.   You just did -- by emphasizing Ms. Kuster's (a) grassroots support for President Obama, (b) strong campaign team, and (c) effective early fundraising, especially for a first-time candidate.  For an undecided Democrat looking for a winner, this is powerful stuff.

Yes, as the campaign develops, and as the candidates articulate their priorities, points of contrast will become clear.  This is fair game.  It is certainly fair, for example, to discuss why one candidate's opposition to "free" trade agreements might make him/her a better congressman or candidate than someone who takes the opposite position.  But even these discussions can be conducted in a civil manner, without exaggerations or distortions of an opponent's positions. (For the record, this issue was chosen at random.  I have no idea how the field breaks down on trade issues.)

This type of debate makes the party stronger.  It allows our candidates to hone their messages, and focus on engaging voters rather than responding to petty sniping.  And, most of all, it will make it easier for the party to come together for a quickie 7-week general election after the primary is over.

Good people can disagree on these boundaries.  But that's where I stand.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 19:25:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Then Again (0.00 / 0)

Isn't there a concern that the candidate, D or R, who has no primary is swamped in the press by the other candidate, who does have a primary and enjoys a big much publicized win.
Primaries can be good for our side...Didn't you tell me that Kathy?

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 15:29:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In some cases, yes (0.00 / 0)

In your case, it definitely would have been a good thing!  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 18:58:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Will Keep that Comment In Mind, Kathy (0.00 / 0)

Sometimes donkeys have long memories too.
I'll probably have to remind you.  

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 20:38:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Joke, Burt n/t (0.00 / 0)

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 20:54:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Polls are unreliable. But, at this point in time, their purpose (0.00 / 0)

isn't to divine what the electorate thinks and assist in devising strategies to move the electorate in the preferred candidates' direction, their purpose now is to discourage the opposition.  If Democrats can be convinced that the candidate chosen for them by the party is a loser, then that portion of the electorate is somewhat suppressed.  There are all kinds of strategies for suppressing the vote and Republicans are well practiced in all of them.

Republicans have managed to hold on to power by getting their base to the polls and getting Democrats to stay home.  Low voter turnout is not a happenstance.  It takes a lot of effort and constant tending to turn the electorate off.

Why are contested Democratic primaries described in negative terms while multiple Republican candidates are cited as spurs to voter enthusiasm?

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by: hannah @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 15:24:13 PM CDT

Sigh. (4.00 / 1)

I was kind of hoping someone, anyone, in the comments would tell me I'm wrong about this:

I can't help but think, however, that the fact that almost two out of five Democrats aren't automatically for Hodes has less to do with Paul and a lot more to do with Democrats generally at this moment.

Democrats perceived by their own (both new and established) party members as failing to deliver on the change they voted for despite having Obama in the White House and commanding majorities in both chambers of Congress.

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by: Dean Barker @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 17:58:22 PM CDT

Well, I would (4.00 / 1)

But I don't think you are wrong.

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by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 18:16:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You are wrong about this (4.00 / 2)

Paul hasn't really started campaigning. Even the most loyal Democratic party members want to know more about their candidates before committing. Since the tradmedia doesn't cover DC, people think they know more about Kelly Ayotte, the female crime fighter, than they do about Paul Hodes, the congressman. When they learn about Kelly the anti-choice right winger, things will change.

 

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 18:53:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is a very good point. (0.00 / 0)

Since the tradmedia doesn't cover DC, people think they know more about Kelly Ayotte, the female crime fighter, than they do about Paul Hodes, the congressman.

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by: Dean Barker @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 19:03:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And another thing (0.00 / 0)

Jeanne Shaheen's favorables are up 4 points since April; if your hypothesis was correct, her numbers would be down, not up.

 

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 19:30:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

One thing I would say (4.00 / 2)

Around here, Paul Hodes has been the presumptive nominee for a while, but that may not be as well known among the public.

But that might be good, because you don't want him to peak too early.

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by: JimC @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 19:00:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]