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(Key takeaways: 1) Credible polling puts Hodes within a small MoE of Ayotte. 2) As we have pointed out time and again, Palin is a drag on the NH ticket. 3) As I suspected, Bill Binnie is the stronger general election Republican candidate. Finally: you guys deserve serious props for freeping that PPP survey to get their attention that we desperately needed real polling for this race. Now go out and spread the news on this poll before the UL and WMUR predictably blanket the state media spin with UNH's higher MoEs. - promoted by Dean Barker)
It looks like Republican activists, pundits and Democratic naysayers were hanging up the banners at the Republican victory party a little too early.
The Public Policy Poll has Paul; Hodes within three points of Kelly Ayotte, five points of Bill Binnie, one point ahead of Bender and five points ahead of Ovide.
http://nhpoliticalreport.com/
This poll is stunningly different from Rasmussen, yet still may be tilted toward Republican voters, According to the cross tabs, 45% of those responding said they voted for McCain, while 48% said they voted for Barack Obama. In the actual 2008 election, 54% of NH voters voted for Barack Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
It is an ill kept secret that UNH has been in the field, and we can expect more polling data in the near future which will tell us if this huge momentum shift is reflected in the UNH date.
One thing the poll shows is that money does buy name recognition, but it does not buy you love. Kelly Ayotte has been up on tv for several weeks now; she is viewed unfavorably by 39%, favorably by 36%. with 26% with no opinion. Bill Binnie, who has been shoveling cash out the door to build his name up, is viewed favorably by only 27%, with 33% unfavorable and 41% with no opinion.
Long story short, not only is Paul Hodes in this race, it looks like momentum is shifting away from the Republicans. It is just a snapshot, but it is a pretty good snapshot.
Oh, and the negative impact of the Palin endorsment is real. Not only do 51% of the voters say the endorsement makes it less likely they would vote for someone, TWENTY ONE percent of those someones are people who voted for McCain.
But it gets even more interesting. 65% of moderates say a Palin endorsement makes it less likely, and 53% of women. The margin of victory in close New Hampshire races comes from independent, moderate women voters. That Palin endorsement was a mistake by Ayotte.
