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Paul Hodes Within Margin of Error!

by: RealNRH

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 17:58:11 PM EDT
(Welcome to the general election, Kelly! - promoted by Dean Barker)

PPP just released the latest polling on the New Hampshire Senate race, showing Paul Hodes well within striking distance of Kelly Ayotte. With a 2.2% MoE, this puts Paul Hodes into a statistical tie with the notorious Ayotte.

Notably, Ayotte's unfavorables have doubled since April while her favorables have held steady with about 35% of the state actually approving of her. As PPP noted, this poll also reports a tie between McCain voters and Obama voters thanks to a very low response rate from Democrats and a very high response rate from Republicans (which is fairly understandable around primary season - the only Democratic race of any note was the Kuster/Swett race, while Republicans had both Congressional districts competitive, the Senate competitive, and the governor's race competitive).

Republicans can't get their enthusiasm any higher; they've maxed out. Democrats need to get engaged! GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!

More (Dean): From PPP:

The competitiveness of her primary forced Ayotte to do things she might have been able to get away with skipping if she'd had an easier path to the nomination. For instance her Sarah Palin endorsement proved critical in surviving with a small victory last night, but 52% of general election voters say Palin's support is a turn off with only 18% of them saying it's a positive. Her having to move to the right in the primary has already hurt her overall image with New Hampshire voters and could prove to become even more of a liability in the general election.
How many times do we have to say it: Sarah Palin is a total drag on the NH ticket.
RealNRH :: Paul Hodes Within Margin of Error!
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Paul Hodes Within Margin of Error! | 8 comments
This Poll (4.00 / 2)
Was last weekend i think? will be interesting to see what the first post Primary # look like.

Hope > Fear




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The title for this post is not the best. (0.00 / 0)
"margin of error" is itself a misleading concept.  The association with a person creates a negative impression that's not deserved.

Success has a hard enough time getting noticed.  It does not need to be marginalized.  

Yes, I'm personalizing an attribute.  That's not the same as depersonalizing a person.

Increase Democratic Enthusiasm (0.00 / 0)
Need to increase Dem turnout and swing some moderates our way to win.  
Endorsements (0.00 / 1)
don't really make a huge difference in New Hampshire - unless they are a Union Leader endorsement in a GOP Primary. But what I mean is that out-of-state politicians don't make much of an impact here.

I don't think the Palin endorsement is going to hurt her as much as some people do.

I also think that Paul Hodes was able to cruise through the last few months with out a primary, while Mrs. Ayotte was getting hit from all sides.

I don't think her disapproval will get much lower. There's not much more to hit her on. There is still plenty to hit Paul Hodes with.  

Indies in NH-01 (4.00 / 3)
That is the gray zone for Paul Hodes.

He is known and accepted/elected in NH-02. The Dems will go for Paul in NH-01. That leaves the Indies.

Ayotte eeked out a win in the crucible of a statewide primary. Now she has to appeal to a much broader audience.

She is off to a shaky start.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

[ Parent ]
In 2002 (4.00 / 3)
John E. Sununu, the week after the brutal primary against Bob Smith, had a plus 20 approval rating. Ayotte's is a NEGATIVE 12!


Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?
[ Parent ]
Oh, how I've missed you (0.00 / 1)
Mr. Buckley!

I think there's not much left to hit Ayotte on. Hodes will try the same old stuff, but I don't think it is going to stick. People are starting to see the facts on FRM.

The problem for Hodes is that people are going to focus on him again and the people generally have not liked what he has done for NH. This is going to be a Washington vs. Outsider election and he's on the Washington side.

He will run a campaign like he's an independent-minded guy who will take on Washington, but there is only so much hope you can have that people will buy it when you have already been down there for four years.

And my apologies to the Democratic Party. Apparently, we at the Giuda campaign were the ones responsible for Jennifer Horn losing. Sorry for that :)

"Starting to see the facts on FRM" (0.00 / 0)
Hey, those facts never made it to my desk!
[ Parent ]
Paul Hodes Within Margin of Error! | 8 comments

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