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More Proof CD2 Republicans Don't Like Charlie Bass

by: Dean Barker

Sun Sep 26, 2010 at 07:10:40 AM EDT
That much was evident by how little Bass managed to squeak by two ticket splitters with no money and little name recognition.

But now here's another metric:

There were 5,000 more Republicans voting in the 1st Congressional District primary won by former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta than there were casting ballots in the 2nd CD race that former Congressman Charles Bass won.

Yes, it's true the 2nd District has increasingly become an even more Democratic-leaning district than the 1st District, but the falloff in the GOP primary wasn't seen while Bass served in Congress, or even in 2006 when he lost to Democrat Paul Hodes.

Of course, columnist Landrigan can't let something that damaging to Republicans remain in print on its own, so right-leaning pundit Landrigan chimes in:
The election demographics make it all the more critical that all Republican voters are super-motivated to vote for Bass in November.
Annie Kuster can win this race, despite a media environment in Nashua that consistently handicaps the red team.
Dean Barker :: More Proof CD2 Republicans Don't Like Charlie Bass
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More Proof CD2 Republicans Don't Like Charlie Bass | 3 comments
Reading the data 101. (4.00 / 1)
There were 5000 fewer Republican ballots cast in the Second District. Does that mean Bass is less popular than Guinta?

By the same logic Stephen and Ayotte are less popular in NH-02 than in NH-01.

The simpler explanation: in NH-01 there was no Dem primary above local races (and few of those!). An undeclared voter would affect no races by picking a blue ballot.

In NH-02 the Kuster-Swett race competed for undeclared votes and more undeclareds picked blue ballots than in NH-01.

Similarly, the numbers Landrigan cites on voter registration are skewed: there weren't many contests to bring new Dems to the primary, and there were plenty of Republican contests and GOTV efforts.

(I haven't checked the SoS numbers to see if they support or undermine this hypothesis.)  

Doomed? (4.00 / 1)
I see Landrigan's comment as an indication of severe trouble for ol' Charlie. Really, can you imagine any scenario in which "all Republican voters are super-motivated to vote for Bass"? I can't.  
I hear ya (0.00 / 0)
But bear in mind that folks said that about Charlie in '94, too.  That election was only two years after Bass lost his Senate seat to Dave Wheeler in a GOP primary, and two months after the Union Leader burned him at the stake in his fight for the nomination.

The right-wingers rallied to Charlie then because they wanted to defeat Dick Swett after he voted for health care reform and gun control.  Expect them to do so again this time.

That's why those of us who have been critical of Annie in the past need to rally to her cause without delay.  (Not that I'm thinking of anyone in particular. . . . :)) Division = Defeat.  

[ Parent ]
More Proof CD2 Republicans Don't Like Charlie Bass | 3 comments

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