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UNH: Shea-Porter Well Within MoE, Kuster Leading

by: Dean Barker

Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 23:55:30 PM EDT
Instead of the usual .pdf, Pindell has it behind a paywall, which is kind of a bummer. (FWIW, I will paste the email announcement of the poll in full below the fold.)

CD1:

Carol Shea-Porter:   39%
Frank Guinta:   46%
Other:   5%
Undecided:   12%

10/27-10/31, Sample: 434 likely voters. MoE: +/- 4.7%

Guinta remains under 50%, undecideds/"others" are high, Carol is closing the gap, and, per Pindell, among independent/undeclared voters, "Two weeks ago Shea-Porter trailed by 10 to her Republican opponent Frank Guinta, now she trails by just 1 percentage point."

In this poll, only 36 respondents identified as between 18 to 34 years of age.  167 are identified as Democrats, 53 as independents, and 199 as Republicans.

CD2:

Annie Kuster:   43%
Charlie Bass:   40%
Other:   6%
Undecided:   11%

10/27-10/31, Sample: 451 likely voters. MoE: +/- 4.6%

In this poll, only 32 respondents identified as between 18 to 34 years of age.  194 are identified as Democrats, 60 as independents, and 178 as Republicans.

Spread the word - we can and we will keep these two house seats so long as we empty the tank and give it everything we have.  Leave no stone unturned. Call your neighbors and friends.  Get your neighbors and friends to call their neighbors and friends. Get out that vote!

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
Call NHDP at 603-225-6899 to find out how to help.  
Call the Shea-Porter campaign at 603-531-9653 to find out how to help.
Call the Kuster campaign at 603-230-2415 to find out how to help.
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
Dean Barker :: UNH: Shea-Porter Well Within MoE, Kuster Leading
DURHAM, NH - Democrat Ann McLane Kuster and
Republican Charlie Bass are locked in a very
tight race for New Hampshire's Second
Congressional District seat.  The First C.D. race
has also tightened with Republican Frank Guinta
holding a modest, but not insurmountable, lead
over incumbent Carol Shea-Porter.

In the latest WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Election
Poll, 43% of likely Second Congressional District
voters saying they will vote for Kuster, 40% for
Bass, 3% prefer Libertarian Howard Wilson, 2%
favor independent Tim Van Blommesteyn, 1% prefer
some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided.

In New Hampshire's First Congressional District,
incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter continues to
trail former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta.
Currently, 46% of likely First C.D. voters say
they will vote for Guinta, 39% say they will vote
for Shea-Porter, 2% support Libertarian Philip
Hodson, 2% prefer independent Mark Whitman, Jr.,
less than 1% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.

These findings are based on the latest WMUR / UNH
New Hampshire Election Poll, conducted by the
University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eight
hundred eighty-five (885) randomly selected New
Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by
telephone between October 27 and October 31,
2010.  The margin of sampling error for the
state-wide likely voter sample is +/-
3.3%.  Included was a subsample of 434 likely
voters in the NH First Congressional District
(margin of sampling error +/-4.7%), and a
subsample of 451 Second Congressional District
likely voters (margin of sampling error +/-4.6%).
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UNH: Shea-Porter Well Within MoE, Kuster Leading | 8 comments
Reject False Icons (0.00 / 0)

Voters have listened these last 2 years. Now they are settling the arguement they have allowed to occur in their heads.

The GOP offers political snake oil and flash in the pan celebrities.

(h/t Gorillaz)

Whack-a-mole, anyone?

Heckuvajob Fosters, UNH. (0.00 / 0)
From a 11/1 article:

The findings - conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center - involved the polling of 709 randomly selected likely voters in New Hampshire who were interviewed by phone between Oct. 7 and Oct. 12.

The survey suggested Shea-Porter's support among undeclared voters appears to be trending down.

The survey now suggests the opposite, but now one in reading in print will know that, will they?

birch, finch, beech

Foster's (0.00 / 0)
is a travesty of a newspaper at this point.  Anyone paying for this paper is getting ripped off big time.
So, what are we going to do about our media, folks?  Wanna throw some money at the real deal?  Our Forum is having a fundraiser.  Couple of bucks goes a long way.  I hope there are more local papers like this that pop up around NH, it's the perfect place for this sort of media.    
[ Parent ]
Democrats are surging (4.00 / 7)
And at the right time!

Two points of disgruntlement:
1. Whoever makes decisions at the DCCC should be fired. The lack of support for an incumbent congresswoman in a state won by Obama was nuts.  One more decision by the bright lights in DC that made no sense.
2. Controlling the flow of polling data like this - sitting on it until the 11 pm news, not releasing cross tabs, not releasing the gubernatorial and senate numbers, putting what little info that is being released on a pay site - is a new twist by UNH and WMUR  that is frown inducing.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

Four on both points. n/t (0.00 / 0)


birch, finch, beech
[ Parent ]
Polling the future is the only sign the voters, (0.00 / 0)
whose action an election is, are going to get that they even exist.  I suppose it's better than nothing.
[ Parent ]
Adding: (4.00 / 2)
The NRCC (according to Politico or somewhere) has put more $ into NH-01 than ANY RACE in the northeast.

How does the DCCC respond to this winnable race against an opponent who is a Walking Scandal?

Crickets.

Win or lose, I'll be spending a lot of time on the DCCC on Wednesday and following.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Have to wonder. (4.00 / 1)
Just maybe they don't appreciate having their narrative derailed by having their cross-tabs analyzed and exposed.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.
[ Parent ]
UNH: Shea-Porter Well Within MoE, Kuster Leading | 8 comments

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