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Primary Predictions - South Carolina Edition

by: RealNRH

Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 14:45:08 PM EST

New Hampshire's primary season has come and gone, and thanks to Willard Romney's spot on the ticket, it was pretty much a snooze this year (though keeping him below 40% certainly was a good outcome relative to expectations). Now it's on to the rest of the country, starting with today's primary in South Carolina.

Consider this an open thread for New Hampshire's best political analysis, prognostication, and wild-ass guessing at the South Carolina primary.

RealNRH :: Primary Predictions - South Carolina Edition

Tags: primary, South Carolina, Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, Paul, (All Tags)

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Primary Predictions - South Carolina Edition | 13 comments

My take (0.00 / 0)

After NH, Romney was 2-0. Now that they finished the recount there, he's 1-1, and he's badly, badly faltered over the last ten days, going from prohibitive favorite in SC to presumptive loser to the Newt, with multiple pollsters capturing signs of a major Newt shift in the last few days. I'm guessing Gingrich 40%+, Romney around 24-30%, Santorum under 20%, and Paul winning outright the non-Republican vote (since South Carolina has an open primary) to take the remaining 10-20 percent.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

by: RealNRH @ Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 19:48:05 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Well done, RealNRH (4.00 / 2)

"The future is not something to be predicted, it's something to be achieved," unattributed aphorism

by: susaninrindge @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 15:57:11 PM UTC

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Thanks! (0.00 / 0)

In Public Policy Polling We Trust. Once again they nailed it.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

by: RealNRH @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 17:01:18 PM UTC

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Gingrich 37% (0.00 / 0)

Romney 26%
Santorum 18%
Paul 16%
Cain / Colbert 3%

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 21:30:36 PM UTC

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Whatever file Nancy Pelosi has on Mr. Gingrich (0.00 / 0)

ain't nuthin compared to what the Big Dog will have gathered.

by: elwood @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 00:42:17 AM UTC

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Gotta wonder (4.00 / 1)

If the McCain oppo research file on Romney has more or less than the Clinton file on Gingrich.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

by: RealNRH @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:13:08 AM UTC

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Gingrich has no opposition research file (0.00 / 0)

It's all right there in the open. There comes a point when nothing that the opposition can say about you is shocking.

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 14:05:58 PM UTC

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Impressive Elwood! (0.00 / 0)

What is the party going to do? Welcome Newt with open arms? I doubt it. He's pissed on too many members of the party establishment. What arre they going to do??

I sure wish we'd end up with Mitt. It may still be possible but odds are diminished. Joe Scarborough hit it exactly right. The word for Mitt is brittle.
Not gonna work. Say what you will about Gingrich, bloated ego, vicious, downright evil. Voters can also tell he's authentic.

Comments Welcome.

No'm Sayn?

by: BurtCohen @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 13:54:54 PM UTC

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I'll take Newt, thank you very much (4.00 / 1)

He'll make Goldwater '64 look like Reagan '84. The guy is arguably the most undisciplined candidate in the history of presidential politics, and his name alone evokes Dickensian nastiness. (Don't underestimate the importance of this.)

Unless a Mitch Daniels or John Thune type realizes that the nomination is theirs for the asking, Mitt will win the nomination. But the South Carolina results will channel monster funds to Newt, which he will use to rip Romney to smithereens.

So I am happy.

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 14:05:02 PM UTC

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TPM had a graph of Newt's numbers nationwide (4.00 / 1)

He's a disaster.

But, the GOP has occasionally been willing to nominate likely losers to get cut down by incumbents while the stronger candidates wait four years.

They have to figure out whether Gingrich is a harmless Dole, or a Goldwater with poisonous coattails. And since the ideologues will view the Goldwater comparison favorably, as a harbinger of taking over the party later, it will be a messy process.

Meanwhile - Romney has to release his taxes. There's no fighting Newt until that happens. And the taxes could change things.

by: elwood @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 14:11:21 PM UTC

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Tuesday (4.00 / 2)

Mitt will release taxes (I suspect for one year) on Tuesday. That will take some issues off the table and put others on. But we've heard the line of defense/attack he will use to defend not releasing any more. "I'm not going to apologize for success... I want everyone to be successful... I know how to do that...blah blah blah."

We'll see how effective Newt is at poking holes in that line....

"The future is not something to be predicted, it's something to be achieved," unattributed aphorism

by: susaninrindge @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 15:28:29 PM UTC

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Thanks - (0.00 / 0)

It will be for 2010 and an estimate of 2011.

Not the Bain years.

by: elwood @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 16:05:33 PM UTC

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Mitch Daniels (0.00 / 0)

I am reminded of the Mighty Mouse theme song: "Here he comes to save the day."

I'll bet his phone rang pretty early this morning.

His timing would be perfect theatrics.

No'm Sayn?

by: BurtCohen @ Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 15:58:22 PM UTC

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Primary Predictions - South Carolina Edition | 13 comments

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