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Campaign Advertisements
All the candidates have campaign advertisements that are running at a minimum on Iowa television.
Biden " Cathedral " This television ad highlights Biden's plan for getting out of Iraq. He is speaking face on directly into the camera.
Clinton - "Invisible " Senator Clinton says that many who are invisible to President Bush will not be invisible to her if she became President.
Dodd " Global " This television campaign advertisement highlights Dodd?s energy policy regarding the issue of global warming and mentions his proposal for a carbon tax.
Edwards " untitled " This ad features Elizabeth Edwards speaking about her husband and his ability to lead.
Obama " What if?" This television campaign showing in Iowa highlights his message of hope and gives some detail to his background.
Richardson " Candidates" The latest in a series of humorous television campaign advertisements highlighting Governor Richardson's resume and background.
Fundraising
Senator Obama has kept pace with Senator Clinton in the money primary. He out raised her in the second quarter. She still has more money on hand at this point. Next reporting deadline is October 15. All data on money is taken from Open Secrets.
Cash on Hand as of July 1, 2007
Clinton $42,200,310
Obama $35,340,840
Edwards $13,010,368
Richardson $ 7,068,580
Dodd $ 6,378,271
Biden $ 2,772,442
Kucinich $ 213,269
Gravel $ 31,141
Debates
According to some, Senator Clinton has benefited the most from the seven presidential debates and forums.
No candidate has benefited as much from primary debates since Ronald Reagan in 1980, said Northeastern University Professor Alan Schroeder, a debate expert.
"Clinton has been a big surprise," he said. "She was very reluctant to engage in these debates, but they have played favorably into her hand against expectations. She has had more gravitas than other people on the stage and she seems completely unrattled."
Senator Clinton aides said their candidate's best moment in the debates - and perhaps the apex of the 6-month-old campaign - was at her debut in the Orangeburg, South Carolina debate. Asked how he would respond to new terror attacks on U.S. cities, Senator Obama said he would talk to allies and investigate the origins of the attack; Senator Clinton shot back, "A president must move as swiftly as is prudent to retaliate."
Senator Clinton attacked Senator Obama following July's YouTube debate, when she called him "naive" for suggesting he'd talk face-to-face with dictators without precondition. Senator Obama's team rolled with the punch, hammering Senator Clinton's foreign policy as "Bush-Cheney lite" and defining Senator Obama as the candidate of change.
Senator Obama's camp marks that exchange as the start of his comeback. The polls have not yet reflected that, but there are signs that Senator Clinton may be vulnerable to heightened debate expectations at this point.
Senator Clinton was jeered during a Yearly Kos forum earlier this month after she defended taking contributions from lobbyists. At the recent Iowa debate, many in the audience thought she seemed out of sorts, perhaps because of the early hour of the taping. The general consensus was that Senator Obama had his best performance in that debate.
Senator Obama has now announced that he will not participate in any more non DNC sanctioned debates or forums.
Superdelegates/Celebrity Endorsements
Members of Congress:
Clinton is leading with members of Congress endorsement. She has 57 endorsements, Obama has 26 endorsements, Edwards has 15 endorsements, Dodd has 9 endorsements, Richardson has 7 endorsements, and Biden has 1 endorsements. Each of these endorsements means a vote at the Democratic National Convention. All data on congressional endorsements is taken from Roll Call.
Notable Celebrity Endorsements:
Warren Buffett: When it comes to investing in candidates, this legendary stock picker usually supports Democrats. He has publicly stated that he would be happy with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as President and he has helped both candidates raise money for their campaigns.
Oprah Winfrey:Endorsing a presidential candidate for the first time, she endorsed Barack Obama and promised to help him by campaigning and raising money. Unlike many endorsements, her endorsements will have a measurable impact. She is scheduled to have a fundraiser for Obama on September 8 at her Chicago mansion.
Unions:
The union endorsements have just started coming in this Labor Day and so far they are spread among several candidates. Senator Clinton received the endorsement of the United Transportation Union, Chris Dodd has received the endorsement of the International Association of Firefighters, and John Edwards has received the endorsement of the Carpenters Union.
Polls
Polls are only a snap shot in time and they should not be used to predict final outcomes. However, polls are a good measure of the movement that may or may not have occurred in a particular period. Since January 2007, Senator Clinton has moved into the lead nationally and in all the early state polls, although Iowa remains fluid. Senator Obama and Senator Edwards have remained fairly static in their poll numbers. Governor Richardson, while still at low figures nationally, has improved his standing in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. All data for polls is taken from the latest polling reported at Real Clear Politics. The numbers in the ( ) are the polling numbers at the end of December 2006.
National Race (Gallup, August 13-16):
Hillary Clinton 42% (33%)
Barack Obama 21% (20%)
Al Gore 15% (12%)
John Edwards 11% (8%)
Bill Richardson 1% (2%)
Iowa (ARG August 26-29):
Hillary Clinton 28% (10%)
Barack Obama 23% (22%)
John Edwards 20% (22%)
Bill Richardson 9% (1%)
New Hampshire (ARG August 26-29):
Hillary Clinton 37% (22%)
Barack Obama 17% (21%)
John Edwards 14% (16%)
Bill Richardson 7% (2%)
Summary
Senator Clinton has to be labeled the frontrunner at this time. She is leading with the most money on hand (for now), she has leads in all the polls (with Iowa fluid), and she has the most endorsements of superdelegates. She has also put to rest (at least for now) all those arguments about her electibility. While Senator Clinton was outperformed against the leading Republican by the other two top Democrats this spring, more recent polling demonstrates conclusively she has erased this disadvantage and now beats Giuliani by slightly larger margins than her Democratic rivals. It is fair to say that Hillary Clinton has beaten some early low expectations on this blog. Certainly, it is not over until the voters finish casting their ballots. No, I am not saying it is inevitable, but Senator Clinton has positioned herself very well for this final stretch of time leading into Iowa and New Hampshire.
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