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David Brooks in his August 5, 2008, column "Where's the Landslide?" claims he has the answer to why Obama may not be pulling away from McCain in this year of discontent with the GOP and the last eight years of Bush rule.
Brooks claims that Obama is a "sojourner," an outsider who is hard to place, which causes voters to be wary and uncertain of him.
"Sojourner" comes from the opening quotation in Obama's book "Dreams from My Father" in which he quotes Chronicles: "For we are strangers before thee, and sojourners, as were all our fathers."
There is a sense that because of his unique background and temperament, Obama lives apart. He put one foot in the institutions he rose through on his journey but never fully engaged. As a result, voters have trouble placing him in his context, understanding the roots and values in which he is ineluctably embedded.
Brooks goes on to theorize that when we judge candidates, we judge the individuals and also the milieus that produced them. We judge them for the connections that exist beyond choice, according to Brooks.
Several political blogs are reporting that Senator Obama is currently meeting with aides who he has tasked with vetting the vice presidential nominees.
NBC News reports Obama was at veep vetter Eric Holder's office in DC for the second day in a row.
According to those reports, Kaine, Bayh, Sebelius and Biden are on the short list with Kaine perhaps the leading contender.
Interesting tidbits: Kaine, Obama, and their wives all attended Harvard Law School. Both Kaine's and Obama's mothers were born in El Dorado, Kansas.
Kaine has reportedly cancelled an appearance for which he was scheduled tomorrow.
The New York Times endorsed Senator Clinton this morning:
Her ideas, her comeback in New Hampshire and strong showing in Nevada, her new openness to explaining herself and not just her programs, and her abiding, powerful intellect show she is fully capable of doing just that. She is the best choice for the Democratic Party as it tries to regain the White House.
On Senator Obama:
Mr. Obama has built an exciting campaign around the notion of change, but holds no monoply on ideas that would repair the governing of America.
On Senator Edwards:
The former senator has repudiated so many of his earlier positions, so many of his Senate votes, that we're not sure where he stands. We certainly don't buy the notion that he can hold back the tide of globalization.
Hillary Clinton pulled off an amazing win in New Hampshire confounding the recent New Hampshire polls and the conventional wisdom of the pundits. Apparently, she surprised some of the regular contributors to Blue Hampshire too. According to them, Senator Clinton had all but imploded with a techical third place finish in the Iowa caucus to second place Edwards. Her campaign would be finished off in New Hampshire.
How did Senator Clinton pull it off?
I am sure that there are hundreds of theories already about how it happened. My thoughts are as follows:
It will come as no surprise to those of you who are regular readers of Blue Hampshire, that I am strongly supporting Hillary Clinton for President. Over the past year, I have consistently, and some have suggested, over persistently, written why I think she is the best candidate for President.
I am inspired by the recent diaries of Dean Barker, Michael Caulfield, and Mike Hoefer describing their support of their particular presidential candidate to articulate in summary form my reasons for supporting Hillary Clinton.
Quite simply, Hillary Clinton has my vote in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary because she has talked the talk and walked the walk.
One of my favorite quotes from Hillary is the following:
"Some believe you can get change by demanding it.
Some believe you can get change by hoping for it.
I believe you get change by working hard."
All her life, Senator Clinton has demonstrated her hard work for change. She has thirty-five years in public life to prove it. In deciding for whom to vote, you cannot ignore those years of public service, working to improve the lives of ordinary Americans.
Whether addressing the legal needs of the poor as the first woman head of the Legal Services Corporation, whether improving the educational system in Arkansas, whether tackling the issue of universal healthcare, whether fighting for veterans on the Gulf War Syndrome illness, whether standing up for the human rights of women throughout the world, whether drawing attention to children in our foster care system, whether fighting for the reproductive rights for women, whether working to extend healthcare to uninsured children or to National Guard and reservists, Hillary Clinton's list of accomplishment and achievement goes on and on.
In the final stretch before the Iowa caucus, the top three Democratic candidates are making their closing arguments to voters. Here is a summary of their final arguments.
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton began her final push before the Jan. 3 caucuses at an event in southeastern Iowa with her husband, daughter and former Iowa Gov. and First Lady Tom and Christie Vilsack, by stressing the problems the next president will face the day they are inaugurated.
The core of Hillary's closing argument is to frame the choice around her "experience" and "preparedness" to be president.
"That person will go to the Oval office and on the desk in the Oval office will be a stack of problems," she said. "We know that the next president will face a daunting agenda."
Clinton also spoke, as she often does, about her work for the Children's Defense Fund, the speech she gave in Beijing about women's rights, her efforts to provide health care for children and her work with Republicans in the Senate -- using the examples to illustrate the various ways she changed people's lives for the better. And she talked about America needing a "new beginning" when it comes to healthcare, education and other issues.
Her final ad in Iowa is as follows:
Per Clinton spokesman Jay Carson, the campaign has a two-minute ad buy on every Iowa TV station's 6 o'clock news on January 2, the day before the caucuses. It's being billed as "a very succinct version" of her closing argument.
Senator Obama may be feeling that Senator Edwards is starting to make a new move to challenge his polling numbers in Iowa. This morning Senator Obama made new remarks in the bitter two day dispute between him and Senator Edwards over the role of 527 groups.
Speaking at an Iowa diner, Senator Obama suggested that a pro-Edwards 527 group's plan to spend money on televisions ads in favor of Senator Edwards, run by Senator Edwards' former campaign manager, Nick Baldick, reveals Senator Edwards as a hypocrite or calls into question Edwards' ability to govern.
Senator Obama said:
"He said yesterday that he's going to ask [Baldick] to do it, and my attitude is that if you can't get your former campaign manager and political director to do what you'd like, then it's going to be hard to get the insurance companies and drug companies to do what you want."
This just out: The Keene Sentinel has endorsed Hillary Clinton. This is is an excerpt:
[T]his newspaper has come to the conclusion that the candidate with the best ideas, as well as the imagination, know-how and bearing to carry them out, is Hillary Clinton.
She has the best health-insurance proposal of all the candidates, and there are several good proposals to choose from. She has significant international experience, considerably more than some of her rivals. Face-to-face, she is as personable, passionate and persuasive as any American political figure in recent memory, qualities that should come in handy in both domestic and international forums.
Yes, we know. The doubts about Hillary Clinton's candidacy are widely discussed, often in terms of whether other voters would accept a woman, or accept this woman, as president. We are aware of the reservations some people have about aspects of the Bill Clinton years. But we find those arguments wanting, or at the very least misplaced. Many of today's Hillary doubters, regardless of party, would surely be impressed during the coming national campaign, just as many New Hampshire voters have been won over during the arduous primary campaign now coming to an end. Choosing a candidate on the Democratic ballot is a tough call this year. In the end, we are confident in our recommendation of Hillary Clinton.
The recent WMUR/CNN Poll showed registered Democrats are choosing Senator Clinton over Senator Obama two to one (40% to 20%). That has been a constant in polls over the past year in which independents seem more inclined to consider Senator Obama and Democrats tend to support Senator Clinton overwhelmingly.
What is it about the two candidates causes registered Democrats more likely to choose Senator Clinton over Senator Obama?
One theory is that Senator Obama advances an image as a unifier and compromiser, a non-ideologue, rather than a fighter. Many Democrats think that compromise is not what it cracks up to be, especially when dealing with the current crop of conservatives. So the image of a partisan fighter or ideologue appeals to registered Democrats and the image of a non-ideologue appeals to independents.
This year is a little different. The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire Presidential Primary happen just after the holidays.
How are the candidates going to continue to keep their names in front of the voters without negatively affecting the voters' holiday sensibilities?
We have our first answer with this new holiday campaign ad from Hillary Clinton. I am sure the others are right behind her.
As you can guess, I like it very much. It is a policy oriented campaign ad, but sets exactly the right tone for the Christmas season. You the extra benefit of showing Senator Clinton in a relaxed and slightly humorous video.
The order of the presents was interesting.
I also want to take the opportunity to wish my fellow Blue Hamsters a wonderful holiday season and a happy and healthy New Year!
You can call me a techno geek. I am fascinated by innovation whether it is an i-Pod or digital camera. I carefully study the advertisement inserts in the newspaper with visions of MP3 players and portable GPS systems dancing in my head.
Those that know me laugh and laugh when I talk about owning one of those gadgets. They know that my first generation PDA sits on my shelf unused and gathering dust. After two years, I am still trying to figure out all the features on my very basic cell phone. I have not own a camera since I was in college.
That doesn't mean that I will limit my visits to Circuit City this holiday shopping season and not dream about what it would be like to own one of those fancy Apple phones. Who knows what I might find for me under the tree this year?
This past weekend, somewhat lost in all the standard campaign hoopla, was an endorsement for Senator Clinton that had special meaning for all those fascinated with innovation.
Calling all policy wonks - Those of you who pride themselves on making their decision about whom to vote on the policies/positions/proposals of the candidates running. For the moment, set aside all the poll numbers and arguments about electability. Take a break and just forget those petty character assassinations of your least favorite candidate.
Let's have a policy debate!
There probably is really not much general policy difference between the Democratic candidates on issues important to Democratic voters. Nevertheless, in my honest opinion, there are at least three key areas which affect all of us in which Senator Clinton's policies/positions/proposals are arguably superior to Senator Obama's policies/positions/proposals.
They are good reasons based upon policy why people should vote for Senator Clinton over Senator Obama.
I apologize in advance for the length of this post, but I wanted to make it as thorough as possible. Due to space and time, I have concentrated on differences between the current frontrunners.
Full disclosure: I am a New Hampshire volunteer for and enthusiastic supporter of Hillary Clinton.
The Associated Press is reporting that Hillary Clinton won the endorsement of the New Hampshire Chapter of the NEA.
Both Senator Clinton and Senator Edwards actively sought the endorsement of the 16,000 member strong union.
Senator Clinton spoke to the government relations committee of the group in March giving a policy speech to the group's conference in March. In it, she criticized the Bush administration for outsourcing teaching to private tutoring companies, arguing that many firms have close ties to Republicans. She was warmly received at the time.
Today Bill Clinton came to Keene to speak at Keene State College. I was privileged to speak a few minutes with him before his speech. As we lingered in the hallway, he grabbed my elbow and looked directly in my eyes while he reminisced a little bit about his time in Keene campaigning. He makes you feel like only you and he were in the room having a good conversation between the two of you, despite the hovering presence of secret service agents and various campaign staffers.
President Clinton had good memories of Keene. Some of his memories included an early 1992 campaign event that turned out a bigger than expected crowd and a snowy February day outside on Main Street in 1996 when 14,000 people showed up to hear him speak eloquently in below zero wind chill.
Well, Bill Clinton pulled in the crowds today in Keene once again. Lines of people started forming in the student union at 8:30 a.m. and an hour later it extended outside into the bitter cold. When the doors opened at 10 a.m., the crowd crammed into the room until the fire marshal said no more. Many in the student laden crowd, only small children when Bill Clinton was President during the 1990s, came out to hear him speak and make the strong argument that his wife should be President. They were not disappointed.
You don't read much on this blog about Iraq lately. It might be because the news out of Iraq is still bad, but maybe not as bad as it has been.
U.S. military fatalities dropped sharply, from 101 in June to 39 in October. Iraqi civilian deaths also declined markedly, from 1,791 in August to 750 in October, the Associated Press reported. Mortar rocket attacks by insurgents last month were the lowest since February 2006, as were the number of "indirect-fire" attacks on coalition forces.
Iraqi officials plan to reduce checkpoints, ease curfews and reopen some roads in and around Baghdad because of improving security. Sunni Arab tribal leaders in western Anbar province, now allied with the U.S. military, say al Qaeda is "almost defeated" in their once-chaotic region.
Today in the Boston Globe there is an interesting article ("Blue Collar Women See Hope in Clinton") analyzing Senator Clinton's success so far and attributing some of it to her work in the healthcare reform area. All of the polls indicate that the consistent backbone of Senator Clinton's support is blue collar and working class women, as well as black women. The Globe reporter theorizes that Senator Clinton connects best with this group because they view her emotionally as a fighter who has overcome obstacles in her life and they view her politically as someone who had made proposals that will help their pocketbooks. Her proposal on healthcare is just one of the issues that resonates well within this group.
In recent interviews, some of these Clinton supporters say that they have been impressed enough by her advocacy for healthcare and children to jettison their previous views of her as a brash, ambitious lawyer and politician. Some said a female president would do things not just differently, but better.
I always enjoy reading Keene Sentinel editorials. The paper has an especially good one today, November 20, 2007, about the mud-slinging by Senators Edwards and Obama against Senator Clinton.
Democrats' vitriol
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Leadership, Barack Obama said recently, does not mean "changing positions whenever it's politically convenient." One of his rivals gave "vague, calculated answers to suit the politics of the moment, instead of clear, consistent principles about how you would lead America."
John Edwards said one of his Democratic primary opponents "defends a broken system that's corrupt in Washington, D.C." Edwards also said he hoped people would "move past celebrity and to the issues such as honesty, integrity and who can actually bring about change."
Of whom do you suppose these advocates of hope and change in a revitalized America were speaking in such disparaging ways?
It's easy to sympathize with Obama and Edwards, as well as with Christopher Dodd, Bill Richardson and other Democrats, who have been less personal in their attacks on Hillary Clinton. They have invested their hearts and energies into nearly year-long presidential primary campaigns, and they are approaching the finish line in less than commanding positions. Of course any one of them could win in Iowa or New Hampshire, or come in close enough to change political perceptions. But time is growing short and frustrations are mounting. Clinton has been waging a substantive yet careful campaign that has kept her in presumptive first place. She will be difficult to beat. Among the Democrats that is.
But everyone knows what Clinton's perceived weaknesses are among the general electorate. And, as Obama and Edwards have been pointing out in recent days through their dark criticism, they are not in matters of public policy. Clinton is dogged by perceived character flaws, involving her honesty, her integrity and her constancy of purpose.
We do not share those persistent doubts about Hillary Clinton. Indeed, we think they have been largely manufactured over nearly two decades by right-wing forces in this country that oppose her and her husband's public policy preferences but are afraid to take them on openly. It is easier to play the Hillary-as-demon game.
Our point is that the other Democratic candidates - who, truth be told, share Clinton's public-policy initiatives practically point by point - should not play this game. Have no doubt, the character assassins are already warming up just off camera - Swiftboaters preparing a new mission, armed with vitriol and innuendo distilled into 30-second television spots. As Michael Reagan, son of the late president, put it in a November 8 letter to Democrats published on this page: "I know you Democrats don't want to do us Republicans any favors, but just this once let us have our way. Give us the opportunity to give the Republican attack machine another shot at Hillary Clinton."
If the other Democratic candidates are really devoted to bringing this country back from the Bush brink, they should continue their substantive campaigns on issues of public importance, and fight the good fight. But they should be very careful not to provide fuel for an unprincipled attack machine.
(emphasis added by me)
On a related point, the Sentinel website has video of each candidate's appearance before the editorial board. I have watched all the Democratic candidates and some parts of the Republican candidates' videos. Fascinating stuff and I appreciate the Sentinel for providing such a service to the public.
Las Vegas is one of my favorite places. There is an abundance of glitz and lights and plenty going on to keep you busy for 24 hours at a time. It is also a rough and tumble place - the site of many a boxing match.
The Democratic candidates debated last Thursday in Vegas and Senator Clinton proved she was still the one to beat. I score it a technical knockout (TKO) against her two chief opponents.
In spite of the well known advertising slogan of "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas," more than four million views tuned in to see the Democratic candidates face off. The audience was the largest in cable new history. They saw quite an exciting debate.
This diary started out as a response to Elwood's diary about bold campaign ideas and making controversial comments. I started to post it then I read Elwood's restriction of responses to one sentence. I decided instead to make my answer a diary.
Many argue that Hillary Clinton is a cautious, avoidance-of-risk, person afraid of controversy. I know, and many of her supporters know, otherwise.
Some good examples in which Hillary Clinton has spoken out in face of controversy include the following:
One of the by-products of growing older is that you see patterns developing over time. This past week on the 2007-2008 presidential campaign trail reminds me and some others of what happened during the 2000 primary battle between Al Gore and Bill Bradley. Eriposte of Leftcoaster gave me the idea for this diary; I have taken his/her comments and modified them to make them my own.
During the Democratic primary season leading up to the 2000 Democratic nomination, Al Gore was considered the "political machine" candidate and Bill Bradley was perceived as bringing something new and different to the table. It was a hard fought battle between the two candidates during which Bill Bradley, particularly toward the end of the primary season, questioned Al Gore's integrity many times.
Now in the current primary campaign, increasingly, Senators Obama and Edwards are taking on, not just Senator Clinton's policy views, but also her character, and they are casting Senator Clinton as someone who makes decisions based on polls and calculation, rather than on her convictions.
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