Where is NH now? Rasmussen says for Obama far better vs McCain

I take all polling with a grain of salt, BUT... (0.00 / 0)

IF one takes this poll seriously, it seems to indicate that New Hampshire is only a swing state in the national election if Hillary is nominated.  How ironic, considering that if we had given a victory to Obama, the race likely would have ended right then.

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 00:45:15 AM CST

the polling is of course at best a snapshot. (4.00 / 4)

I think Obama and the party are actually better off with him having gone through the loss. ( for one thing, the astonishing yes we can video probably wouldn't exist). If he ends up as the nominee, we have a much better sense of his ability to respond to adversity (again to the video-- it is instructive when watching it to remember that the speech was given on the worst night of his political life) and the phenomenal organization and the quality of the decisions made since NH gives us a taste for his ability to deal with complex problems.

Even if the polling is right NH is a swing state with either nominee. We are still the minority party in registrations and we should never forget it-- events can swing polls in a heartbeat.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 04:43:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

But just barely the minority party. (0.00 / 0)

R: 30.6%, D 29.2%.

---

by: elwood @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 06:11:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]

And not for long as long as: (4.00 / 7)

1. we dont devour each other
2. we dont celebrate before winning.
3. we dont abuse the power the people give us.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 07:56:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Elections can surprise (4.00 / 3)

It was only six years ago that we had our clocks cleaned, and only four years ago that people perceived that Judd Gregg was so unbeatable that when Burt Cohen told me with 24 hours to go before the end of the filing period that  had to pull out, no one was interested in taking Gregg on, except a very determined and wonderful Granny D.  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt   [I'm an advisor to the NHDP Coordinated Campaign]

---

by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 08:45:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

And many people didn't take her seriously, IMHO, because of her age. (4.00 / 1)

Ironically, I didn't have the opportunity to vote for her because of mine.

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 09:28:53 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You don't think he would have given the same speech had he won? (0.00 / 0)

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 09:27:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

The speech would have been the same, but much easier to deliver. (4.00 / 1)

It's  not easy to deliver a speech like that under any circumstances, to do so in the manner he did moments after having the rug pulled from under him is incredibly impressive.
You have to reach down deep to do that in my estimation.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 09:40:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

True; and I do believe Obama is the greatest orator I've ever witnessed. (4.00 / 1)

In October 2006, Bill Clinton was headlining an NHDP fundraiser in Bedford.  It was standing-room-only, $250 a head.  I was volunteering for the NHDP, having been an intern that summer, so I got in for free.  And as I listened to the former President speak, I thought how impressive it was, what great points he not just brought up but instilled, and how incredible that he could give such a speech without script or prompter, and as he was not in an election, he had no use for a well-prepared stump speech (in hindsight, he probably gave the same speech every two days in a different city for a different cause, but that's beside the point).  I was inspired, and when he finished I approached the rope line for a handshake and an autograph (since then, I've stopped seeking autographs or pictures; I'd rather be taken seriously, and so I have neither from Bill Richardson).

But...

At the 2008 100 Club, I was a guest of the Richardson campaign, which paid for me to sit at one of the two-digit high-dollar tables because I had been elected as a highly-placed slated delegate.  And I heard the candidates speak.  Hillary, then Kucinich, then Richardson, then Obama.  Hillary is consistent, Kucinich sounds like a robot when he gets excited, nothing new.  Richardson's speech was not his best; he was hoarse and that night, lacked what I like to call "the fire".  It wasn't his best, to say the least, but I nearly lost my voice screaming at every clap line.  And then Obama spoke, and I sat back down.  Well, I should say, I sat down first.  Then, what must have been a thousand of the Senator's supporters rushed the stage, each holding a sign (because Obama staffers had walked to every table with stacks of them and made sure anybody who wanted one had one), and chanting his name, as U2's City of Blinding Lights played, and the whole scene set quite an aura.  If you haven't witnessed such an event, find yourself a big Obama rally in Vermont and see it while you have the chance.  Anyway, then he spoke, and it was quite a speech.  It hit me with the effect one is used to hearing of his work, and sitting at my Richardson table, it was all I could do to keep from rushing the stage myself.

And that is Obama's greatest strength.  He inspires people, and he knows it.  He knows that leadership is not about power, about domination, about strategic manipulation, but about inspiring people to follow you.  I see it in his style, in his supporters, in his foreign and domestic policy, and that is why I want him to be the leader of this great nation, so long lacking a true leader.

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 10:19:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Eh... (0.00 / 0)

As much as I don't trust polling this one takes the cake..

Of course Obama is getting a bump in NH he just won 8 states in a row, its all the news has been covering, they have basically written Hillary off for dead if she doesn't win in Ohio and Texas. Just like they wrote off Obama back in the fall saying Super Tuesday would determine the winner, don't trust polls because the people they call get their news from the talking heads.

And I doubt that a state that went for Hillary before is now an Obama state.

I worked/voted for Bill Richardson. Jeanne Shaheen 08! Lynch 08! CSP 08! CDNH!

---

by: sdoyle @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 08:41:06 AM CST

Go ahead, shoot the messanger.... (0.00 / 0)

But Obama hasn't been vetted yet.  He will be vetted, but he hasn't been vetted yet.

Independents love John McCain.  We don't just like him.  We love him.  We may not be able to vote for him, and some of us won't, but we love him.

There is no way of knowing which Independents will vote for him and which ones will not until at least the morning of the election.  The most consistent trait for Independents is we pretty much stay open to change our minds right up until we vote.

But one thing is for sure.  At some point between the first time John McCain's head was being descended into a latrine in a Vietnamese prison camp, and the first time his head was removed from that latrine, he earned the right to have his case heard until the morning of the election.

I'm disgusted by the GOP and their fiscal irresponsibility. And I really want a change in Party for the most part.  But John McCain actually winning his primary simply causes all kinds of conflicts for me.  It just does.  And I haven't a freaken clue what I'm going to do.  And every other Independent I know in NH is just as fluid.

I understand this is a partisan board. I'll just share how I feel as honestly as I can and you guys do with it what you please.  Consider me one of the members in your Independents' focus group.

And with that I'll just share one more thing since posting this on this board already is pretty dumb.  If I were a Republican strategist I would try and bait Democrats into attacking John McCain in a personal way; his conviction, his integrity, his personal mettle.  That worked in a South Carolina primary for Bush, but it will not work in a general, and it will not work in a NH general.  If you want to beat John McCain you are going to have to do it with issues, civility, and rational arguments - kid gloves, really.  Personal attacks will have a backlash, just ask Mitt Romney and Bay Buchanan.  And that was in a primary.  The backlash will be much more austere in a general.

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 10:02:01 AM CST

On the other hand (4.00 / 1)

I don't think personal attacks will work on Obama either. It certainly hasn't worked in the primaries. He is far too likeable.

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:35:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

not shooting the messenger, but... (0.00 / 0)

John McCain has a record to run on, opinions, visions of the future, and that is what the Dem nominee will run against. Personal attacks will not be necessary, and that's not what we're about, anyway. We don't have an equivalent of Karl Rove. All we have to do is point out how we differ, and how John McCain has given his almost complete support to the most destructive president in the last century: George W. Bush.

We honor his service to the country, but he would be a terrible choice. As likeable as he is personally--and so is Mike Huckabee, by the way--John McCain is wrong on many of the issues facing the USA.

---

by: michael57 @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 15:20:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thought about your post... (0.00 / 0)

Yesterday when I read your post my initial reaction was, yeah, yeah, sure, both parties are the same, everyone has a Rove.

But you know, I got to thinking about it and I can't really think of a Rove equivalent in the Clinton administration, or an Atwater equivalent, either.

It was a personal revelation that was worthy of mention.  That's pretty cool when you think about it.  I had not.

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 12:34:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That's because Democrats have inner circles, not inner fiefdoms. (0.00 / 0)

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 19:21:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

sounds like you're about where I was for Bush v. Gore (0.00 / 0)

I thought there was little difference between the two parties, too. But think where the country might have been if more of us had thought harder, and sent Gore to D.C. Eight years' head start on global warming, Osama captured and Iraq neutralized instead of occupied, one trillion dollars less debt, no assault on the Constitution, etc. We can get back on the right road, but McCain is not the answer. He woud continue too many Bush policies. Iraq for 100 years? There's a stark difference between the parties still.

---

by: michael57 @ Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 07:13:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I heart John McCain. (4.00 / 1)

Really do. Have an Independents for McCain sticker from the 2000 primary on the wall. I voted for him, sent him money, and have never stopped being grateful for his service and his integrity.

But he is the wrong person to be president of the United States in 2008 for many many many reasons that have everything to do with policy and nothing to do with personality. The campaign will be about those policy differences.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 16:46:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen is a very good pollster (4.00 / 3)

They are one of the best and have a proven track record, although they tend to be slightly biased towards Republicans (though not sigfinicantly).

Why does Obama do so much better than Clinton? Independents! Obama wins the indie vote by big margins against McCain and with Hillary it's even or she loses. Obama is a fresh new face, new approach to politics and doesn't have the baggage other candidates have. He is exactly what the indie vote in this country is looking for.

Look at some of the other G/E Rasmussen polls:

1) Obama up by 7% in Colorado
2) Obama up by 12% in Nevada
3) Obama down by only 1% in Missouri

Obama also consistently is leading McCain in their daily national polls by 3-6%. Clinton is down by 3%-7%.

Obama's numbers only go UP as he campaigns and people learn more about him. This guy will be a map-changer in the 2008 general election! We're making a big mistake if we don't nominate him.  

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:27:43 PM CST

IMHO, if we win CO, NV, and MO, we win the whole thing. (4.00 / 1)

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:42:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Iowa as well (4.00 / 4)

And an earlier G/E poll in Iowa had Obama up by double digits as well.

He puts a whole bunch of new states in play. For example, I also think he wins Virgina in the general election (would be first Democrat to win VA since 1964).

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 12:44:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

McCain Supporter for Clinton (0.00 / 1)

I ran into a smart, deeply dedicated McCain supporter the other day. He told me he was sending money to the Clinton campaign.
Luckily more and more Democrats are figuring this out.

---

by: Burt Cohen @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 16:38:58 PM CST