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Markos is way off on the general election

by: Douglas E. Lindner

Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 15:04:05 PM EDT
Check out his map prediction:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Obama wins INDIANA but not New Hampshire?  Now THAT is screwy, and I don't care what the predictions are based on.

Here's my counter-prediction: no red states north of DC on the East Coast--and I think we can reach south of DC as well.
Douglas E. Lindner :: Markos is way off on the general election
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Markos is way off on the general election | 13 comments
Red/Blue vs. Battleground (0.00 / 0)
That is not Kos' Nov. 4th map, Doug.

This is his toss up map:

Now, here's the map showing races in which the candidates are within 10 points of each other, in yellow:

The tally on that map is Obama 173, McCain 144, and Tossup 221.


The giant finds its gait.
Those are the battlegrounds. His prediction, based on polling, is above. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
For June 3rd, the tally is Obama 283, McCain 255. n/t (0.00 / 0)


The giant finds its gait.
[ Parent ]
In the poll snapshots. (0.00 / 0)
My confidence in polls is not absolute.  I've stated my distaste for their effect on both elections and the national debate, but more importantly in this case, they're not always truly representative, and they don't always predict the true outcome.  Case and point: Massachusetts is not a swing state.
[ Parent ]
NH vs. IN (0.00 / 0)
Poblano says Obama's chances of winning New Hampshire and Indiana are 45% and 33%, respectively.  Perhaps Kos is allowing some subjectivity to creep into his thinking on New Hampshire?  Visiting in-laws in Derry could possibly skew one's perception of the state's political attitude.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship
link (0.00 / 0)
fivethirtyeight.com/ - though most probably know him by now

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship
[ Parent ]
My prediction: (0.00 / 0)
We'll win New Hampshire, and probably not Indiana, but we should compete, and work hard, everywhere.
Yes, they are apples and oranges (4.00 / 3)
but when you look at the huge margin of Dem voters over Repub voters in the primary, I just don't see how we don't have the advantage.

Yes, people like McCain in this state, but that doesn't change the larger dynamic that indies are trending 2/3rds to us, instead of the other way around, as in, say, 2000.

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

Huge turnout is the key (0.00 / 0)
That is Obama's core strategy. Maybe even more than running against McCain, he will likely attempt to prove himself to many, many more democrats.

This is where you come in Garth.

The giant finds its gait.

[ Parent ]
When we were (4.00 / 2)
doing door to door GOTV for Obama in the primary, we came across a few registered Republicans who said if Obama is the nominee, they would vote for him.

There's a lot of potential here.

[ Parent ]
This map shows Texas as a virtual tossup (0.00 / 0)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/...

Is that possible?

Beachcombings Jewelry

Wishful thinking. (0.00 / 0)
I'd like to see that too, and I think we might even get a Senator out of Texas this year, but I don't put much faith in a map that has Massachusetts as a swing state.
[ Parent ]
Battleground: Texas (0.00 / 0)
Ben Smith:
Axelrod makes the strategy explicit:
I think that we are going to have a larger battlefield in 2008. ... I think we are going to stretch the Republicans, I don't think they can take for granted nearly as many states as they have in the past. And I think we are going to add several to the Democratic column this year, and so our coalition is going to be broader.
This is feasible only because Obama has the money, but since he can afford it, it makes sense for several reasons. It sends a good message, of course, and perhaps he can pull an upset in some of these states on the margins.
But the widened battlefield may also force McCain to spend scarce resources defending turf he could otherwise take for granted. Obama can, for instance, run a real campaign in places like Texas and Arizona — states that an occasional poll suggests he could win but where few observers give him much of  a shot. Then McCain has to decide whether to simply ignore it, and risk an upset; or to spend money on television and organization keeping up, money that then can't be spent in Ohio.
-snip


The giant finds its gait.
Markos is way off on the general election | 13 comments
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