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2Q Aftermath: Carol Shea-Porter is a Rock Star

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 08:28:37 AM EDT


Laura and I put up fundraising numbers as they were happening here, here and here, but it's a good idea to step back for a minute and take a look at the big picture, which was actually really surprising for me in a number of ways.

By far the biggest fundraising story of the quarter: Carol Shea-Porter brought in over $260,000.  That's more than Jeb Bradley and John Stephen, than Bob Clegg and Jennifer Horn.  That's more than Paul Hodes (!), who, for his own part, demolished his competition at $254.9K and with nearly a million CoH.

In today's Granite Status (which I'm not linking to), DiStaso does his level best to put the worst possible spin on this amazing achievement, citing up front the advantages of incumbency and then moving quickly into PAC money, and finally bringing out the old "MoveOn" saw to stir up the wingers in the comment section of NH's premiere RW blog. Only at the end of the section does he admit that almost half of her contris from individuals were from amounts smaller than $250.  That's a stunning display of Carol's grassroots support in this state.

And I'll include what DiStaso fails to mention, from Shea-Porter's own thank you letter for my teeny tiny contribution: "I do not accept any Business PAC or federal lobbyist money."

One more thing. Though I'm sure the last thing she wants is the attention, I'm going to give it to her anyway.  There's no doubt in my mind that some of this outstanding success in money raising has to do in part with Carol's campaign manager, Pia Carusone. When it was first reported that she was going from the NHDP to Shea-Porter, I was overjoyed.  Turns out I had reason to be.

On to another huge story out of this quarter's take: the two likely Republican nominees, Jeb Bradley and Bob Clegg, have no idea how to manage money responsibly. The George Bush party of fiscal responsibility has brought forth two frontrunners who are deeply in debt to keep their campaigns going.

Not only did Jeb spend more than he earned this quarter, he also loaned his campaign another 50K on top of an already ridiculous amount of overall debt from back when he was a Congresscritter.  And friend of lobbyists Bob Clegg has loaned his campaign a quarter of a million dollars ot ensure that he can drown out Jennifer Horn with money that didn't come from actual supporters. And on the CD1 side, Stephen stayed competitive with Jeb without going into debt.  I starting to think he might just pull this out, which would be most unfortunate.  I'm looking forward to seeing Bush League Bradley lose a second time in the general election.

One more, very reported, but very important, piece of news: for the second quarter in a row, Shaheen significantly outraised John E. Sununu, by well over a half a million dollars.  So much for the advantages of incumbency.  Meanwhile, the Sprinter is covering up for his lackluster quarter by boasting that he's sitting on 5 million CoH.  To repeat this point once again, it's fun to talk money in the bank when you have no real intention of campaigning until after Labor Day, so we'll see how this starts to play out in September when he starts bleeding Benjamins and carpet bombing our state with ads.

Dean Barker :: 2Q Aftermath: Carol Shea-Porter is a Rock Star
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Second Story (4.00 / 2)
Jennifer Horn is toast.  She ends the quarter with ~$5K that she can spend on the primary campaign -- after blowing zillions on fundraisers who don't raise funds and political consultants who urged her to publicize her Jackie Mason endorsement.

Horn's burn rate was 2x her fundraising for the quarter -- a staggering margin so early in the campaign.  And her campaign manager abandoned the sinking ship a week before the period ended.

Either her people have no idea what they're doing, or some folks are taking advantage of this woman.  I vote "both".  


Yes! (0.00 / 0)
She's now down to Bosse/Steiner level.

I vote "both" too, but what mzkes the situation more compounding is how Clegg will loan himself what it takes to drown her out.

What a shame - she would be so much more fun to have as the nominee.

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.


[ Parent ]
The primary races: (0.00 / 0)
On September 9th we have a primary with no Republican contest for Governor or Senator. There are also relatively few contests down-ticket. The key factor in winning the Congressional nominations will be: turnout, turnout, turnout.

So, it's probably a mistake for us spectators of the GOP races to spend much time looking at endorsements and debates. Who has the best ground game? Are there any local machines that will be significant?

The Republican primary electorate will be a mix of loyal Republicans who always vote, and motivated supporters of a single candidate. Independents who might have voted for Sununu over Smith (for example) won't be a factor at all. It probably means a rightward tilt.


And now that Stephen is essentially (0.00 / 0)
on par with Bradley with dollars, I suspect he may do quite well.  Jeb's got the establishment, Stephen's got the anti-tax activists. If turnout is the key with roughly equal money, the enthusiasts could defeat the machine.

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

[ Parent ]
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