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Elite Punditosophistry Not Particularly Appealing to Reality

by: Dean Barker

Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:00:00 AM EDT


CQ sums up NH and the '08 cycle:
"Democrats in the state, by and large, are upper-income, high-education, liberal. What you'd think of as elite Democrats, not blue-collar folks," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.

...Smith said one of Shea-Porter's biggest "problems" as she seeks a second term is essentially that "she's just a Democrat in what's still a largely Republican district."

"She is not particularly appealing to blue-collar Democrats, " Smith said.

But Ray Buckley, state Democratic Party chair, contends that Shea-Porter's House votes have been in the "mainstream of New Hampshire values."

It totally makes sense why she's unappealing to blue-collar folks.  After all, Carol Shea-Porter was raised in an elite military family, went to elite public schools - such as Andy Smith's elite UNH - and, prior to becoming a Congresswoman, paid the bills by staying far away from regular folks through her job as an elite social worker.

And just take a look at some of Shea-Porter's work in Congress in the past month.  The woman is totally out of touch with the working class:

Congresswoman Shea-Porter Secures Critical Funding for Shipyard
Friday August 01, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, helped pass legislation which will provide vital resources to our nation's veterans, as well as secured important funding for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.

Shea-Porter Continues to Stand Up for Military Families, Introduces Critical Veterans Bill
Friday August 01, 2008
On the day before the start of the Annual District Work Period, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter used her time in Washington to stand up for our nation's military families and veterans.

Shea-Porter Scores Legislative Victory for New Hampshire Students
Thursday July 31, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter voted in favor of legislation which will address the mounting cost of education and help remove barriers that prevent qualified students from attending college.

Shea-Porter Supports Bill to Restrain Energy Speculation
Wednesday July 30, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter voted in favor of the Commodity Market Transparency and Accountability Act (H.R. 6604), a bill which would reduce gas prices by preventing excessive speculation and energy market manipulation.

Congresswoman Shea-Porter To Introduce Legislation Requiring New Hampshire Has Full Service VA Hospital
Monday July 28, 2008
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter continued to demonstrate her unwavering support for veterans by announcing she will introduce legislation requiring the Veterans Administration to provide New Hampshire veterans with the same services veterans in other states receive at their full service hospitals.

Shea-Porter Announces HHS Grant to Ensure Access to Health Care Coverage
Thursday July 24, 2008
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter announced today that New Hampshire has been awarded a nearly $900,000 federal grant from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Congresswoman Shea-Porter Introduces Home Heating Assistance Bill
Thursday July 17, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter introduced legislation to provide emergency funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The legislation, the Home Energy Assistance through Emergency Relief Act, would increase funding for LIHEAP by $9 billion.

I don't know about you, but to me that list reeks of patchouli and arugula and double lattes. It's not a particularly appealing list for, say, blue collar democrats, for example.

p.s. Some more fun: which Hamster can come up with the most succinct datum to counter the broad-brush nonsense of calling NH-01 "still a largely Republican district"?

Dean Barker :: Elite Punditosophistry Not Particularly Appealing to Reality
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
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Here's one. (0.00 / 0)
In 2004, this was the only district in New England that voted to re-elect President Bush.  In 2006, a Democratic challenger beat a Republican incumbent who had eleven times as much money.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner


There's some truth in Smith's claims (4.00 / 1)
"Democrats in the state, by and large, are upper-income, high-education, liberal. What you'd think of as elite Democrats, not blue-collar folks"
  1. The New Hampshire population has a substantially higher income than the nationwide average. So, other things being equal, we would expect both Democrats and Republicans here to skew upward in income.
  2. We also have concentrations of Democrats around our major colleges: in the Upper Valley around Dartmouth, in Cheshire County around Keene State, on the Seacoast near UNH (though the Portsmouth demographic is, I believe, distinct.) So there is indeed an association between higher education and Dems. (That isn't quite consistent with the "high-income" claim since the colleges don't pay top wages and the college communities tend to skew young, before peak earning.)
  3. Blue collar jobs are disappearing. No surprise that blue collar voters are shrinking too.

A quick look at the crosstabs in recent Smith poll shows roughly how far you can take these stereotypes:
  1. Bradley wins the $75K+ and $100K+ groups by about ten points;
  2. Carol wins <$30K by 5 and $60-$75 by 20
  3. The $30-$60K group favors Bradley.

That doesn't support Smith's stereotype, or show it to be bass-ackward. But there's a big fat asterisk: the sample size is too small to be very helpful.

Adding - (4.00 / 1)
Smith's published crosstabs only correlate candidate choice with stuff like income. It doesn't correlate party choice. Since each district is 40%-45% Undeclared, there's a Real Big Question: do any such trends apply to party members or to how Indies swing?

[ Parent ]
What's the point of coming up with thoughtful, well-researched analysis (0.00 / 0)
when people will believe you know what you're talking about for just saying things that sound like what everyone else is saying?

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner


[ Parent ]
Oliphant on 2004 (4.00 / 2)
Here:

This seemed to match something else and that was that there was a class aspect to this vote as well. Basically, the richer you are, the more Republican you are, which is true, but the important thing is to find the income point where the opinions begin to diverge.

And in this state it seems to be around $50,000 of household income. In 2004 among the third of New Hampshire electorate whose households had less than $50,000 in income...Kerry was ahead of Bush by eleven points, 55 to 44 percent. But in the 2/3 of the electorate where houshold income was above $50,000 a year, the president was ahead by three percentage points, 51 to 48.





Let's also remember (4.00 / 1)
The headline on Smith's 2006 election day summary:

Upset likely in NH 2, Bradley to hold NH 1

http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent...

Why exactly are they calling Smith on this issue again? Isn't that kind of like asking Chalabi for comment on Iraq reconstruction?

He had Bradley at 49% and Shea-Porter at 40% on the eve of the election.



Just in general, why do journalists (0.00 / 0)
think pollsters are particularly credible talking about underlying currents in the electorate?

They are focused on short-term samples and perhaps longitudinal samples using the same questions over time. They are NOT focused on underlying demographic changes, socioeconomic drivers, etc.

It's a bit like expecting the Channel 9 weatherman to be an expert on climate change. He may be a serious student of that; so might the software engineer. But neither is an expert on the topic by virtue of his/her job.


[ Parent ]
PVI R+0.1. (4.00 / 5)
There are something like 49 Dems who hold more Republican seats.

This goes to Elwood's point about pollsters (4.00 / 1)
How could anyone say that a Partisan Voting Index of 0.1 was "largely Republican"? Unless they had their pollster blinders on.

Did Smith even look at the results of the elections? Shouldn't that figure into the analysis more than a poll which has been shown to be useless a number of times now?



[ Parent ]
Bingo. (0.00 / 0)
And isn't that PVI kind of stale at this point, too? I have to imagine that post-2006 and post-NH primary it has shifted further still.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Andy Smith is a dolt. (0.00 / 0)
On the other hand, when people are making predictions, it's better for them to be wrong.  If they're wrong, other people feel smarter than they and come back and ask them again.
Feeling smarter is better than knowing the future.
Go figure.

Well, there is a problem with good predictions in this country. (0.00 / 0)
If the news media thought it was going to happen in advance, it's not news.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner


[ Parent ]
Sorry, Dean (4.00 / 1)
They're right. NH-01 is "still a largely Republican district" in the sense that they're all voting Democrat this year.  

Uh, 7-1/2 months? (0.00 / 0)
Crazy missed you!

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com


[ Parent ]
In the salt mines, kid (0.00 / 0)
Sorry. I'm not a blogger. I just do this one the side for relaxation, not kidding. Anyway, thanks for the e-mail. That got me thinking about CSP and I'm psyched for this now. Freedon Watch is going after her. It's going to get ugly.  

[ Parent ]

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