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NH ARG: McCain +3 :-(, Shaheen +12 :-)

by: Mike Hoefer

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 11:12:15 AM EDT
Interview dates just a bit before the Obama momentum shifted...

2008 President
McCain 48% (+3 over August)
Obama 45% (-1 over August)
Other 1%
Undecided 6%
Interview dates: September 13-15, Sample size: 600 likely voters MOE: ±4%

So another month of pins and needles for the Obama camp in NH. Rasummusen should be out in the next day or two with their monthly... perhaps we will see some Obama Mo there?

Much better news for Shaheen

2008 US Senate
Shaheen 52%
Sununu 40%
Undecided 8%
Interview dates: September 13-15, Sample size: 600 likely voters, MOE: ±4%
Mike Hoefer :: NH ARG: McCain +3 :-(, Shaheen +12 :-)
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NH ARG: McCain +3 :-(, Shaheen +12 :-) | 12 comments
As we all know... (4.00 / 1)
Polls are only a snapshot in time. ARG is sometimes spot on and other times way off. The only poll that matters is who goes to the polls on election day.

The last two presidential elections in New Hampshire were decided by less than 10,000 votes - there is resonable expectation that this year will be just as close.

2012 starts today.

As critical as I've been about ARG, (0.00 / 0)
I read somewhere recently that their GE polls last time around were much more accurate than their primary polls both last time and this time.

birch, finch, beech
[ Parent ]
Generally way off, Raymond (0.00 / 0)
I've said it before:  Dick Bennett had Bush up 20 on McCain two days before the 2000 NH primary.  (McCain won by 2.)

I also recall that he had Swett beating Rauh by double digits just before the 1996 Senate primary, and Dick squeaked by.

I could cite many, many more examples.  

[ Parent ]
Polls will be obsolete soon, and might already be on the way there. (4.00 / 1)
The most reliably pro-Obama demographic is young people.  Pollsters can't call cell phones, and we're not so big on landlines.

--
No tea; no decaf.

@DougLindner

An interesting thought. . . . (0.00 / 0)
Ultimately, pollsters might have to return to "man on the street" surveys, which are far more expensive and time consuming.  Even with advance sampling methods, I can't imagine that excluding cell phone users will improve accuracy.


[ Parent ]
That's what I'm counting on. (0.00 / 0)
I'm against political polling in general; I think it waters down our national debate and oversimplifies every issue, often sending the wrong signals to our leaders.

I actually once proposed applying the National Do Not Call registry to polling for the express purpose of killing it.

--
No tea; no decaf.

@DougLindner

[ Parent ]
Young people... (0.00 / 0)
...don't always vote.  
[ Parent ]
In years past, that would have been a problem, but this year... (4.00 / 1)
Just ask Hillary Clinton.

--
No tea; no decaf.

@DougLindner

[ Parent ]
Poll date... (0.00 / 0)
A lot has happened in the past week that may have reversed this trend. The polls after Friday's debate will be more accurate.

It will also be interesting to see a UNH poll too, I would think local polls tend to be more accurate.

I agree with the first statement. (0.00 / 0)
But on the 2nd: ARG is a NH-based pollster, and I disagree that UNH is more accurate.  More accurate than ARG, maybe, but that's a low bar to surpass.

birch, finch, beech
[ Parent ]
The previous UNH was a waste of time (0.00 / 0)
I doubt the next one will be any better unless they totally change their methodology.

The ARG poll only takes into account if we have a "balanced turnout" during the general election. And that just won't happen. I don't know who they were polling, but the way I see this coming election the republican's won't see a real reason to go to their polling places.

McCain isn't giving them a reason to come to vote.
Sunnunu is losing to Shaheen severely.
And Lynch is leading his opponent handily.

So why would a Republican want to vote this time around?

Wynter

Hodes buries Horn n/t (0.00 / 0)


for transparency sake ~I represent Union print shops
[ Parent ]
NH ARG: McCain +3 :-(, Shaheen +12 :-) | 12 comments

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