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NH-Sen: Embarrassment of Riches

by: Dean Barker

Sun Dec 21, 2008 at 10:20:08 AM EST


While DiStaso spins our embarrassment of riches into trouble, Landrigan's analysis is a refreshing bit of balance:
They have their own pedigrees, having beaten entrenched Republican incumbents in 2006.

Shea-Porter's victory goes down as smaller by numbers than Hodes', but all the more impressive since hers was a nationally targeted seat for Republicans and a rematch with former GOP Congressman Jeb Bradley.

He has the base where Gregg began his Washington career, representing the 2nd District from 1981-88.

Shea-Porter has strength in the tougher district for Democrats generally. That includes the Seacoast, which in recent years has become Gregg's home turf.

Hodes is a better fundraiser and by many objective accounts got more done in his first two years on Capitol Hill.

But Shea-Porter is seen by many as better able than Hodes to carry the change-agent message two years ahead and really go after Gregg as a GOP-establishment stalwart who no longer fits the profile of what New Hampshire voters are looking for from their leaders in Washington, D.C.

I would change "got more done" to "has a higher profile as frosh class prez and with his Waxman committee" (unless I'm missing something) and would also argue that both Carol and Paul represent real change, but I'm mostly down with that.

Another interesting question is what it would mean to leave behind each district.  I honestly don't think NH-01 would be so direly vulnerable with Carol as Senate nominee as people assume, but it definitely would be muy competitive.  And there have been a few grumblings already, and that's without hearing what Stephen is up to.  On Paul's side, I haven't heard a peep about whether Jennifer S. Horn-Palin will have a field cleared for her, or whether a Republican more in line with the district will emerge.

In CD1, some obvious names that comes up are Steve Marchand and Maggie Hassan, while in CD2 there's Jay Buckey, Katrina Swett, and perhaps even Molly Kelly.  

Dean Barker :: NH-Sen: Embarrassment of Riches
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I would agree with your comments on Landrigan... (0.00 / 0)
I think Paul has been very productive and we can be proud of him, but Kevin must not be taking full note of Carol's amazing productivity - several pieces of her own legislation, big bucks for the shipyard, many committee chairs making the pilgrimage to NH to see what her projects are about.

And is he getting gently spun on this freshman leadership riff...there being several (unelected) "freshman class presidents" who serve because they ask to?  


Seacoast (4.00 / 1)
If CSP were to run for the Senate, Marchand would make the 1st District proud.

Don't print the general election ballots yet (4.00 / 3)
There are a lot of good potential candidates in that district, including Maggie Hassan, who has been a terrific state senator, and who knocked off a Republican incumbent to win election in her first term. The UL also mentioned Hillsborough County treasurer and Manchester businessman Chris Pappas. Chris was the only Democrat to win a county wide office in Hillsborough, with over 89,000 votes. So, with all due respect to Steve, I would suggest that we wait for candidates to actually start emerging before anyone gets crowned, because there are some people out there with a demonstrated ability to win elections with excellent records who could be great candidates in that district, in addition to Steve.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


[ Parent ]
Seems to me (4.00 / 2)
that we're witnessing and participating in the process in which candidates emerge.  Names get metioned, people say, "hmmm...", prospective candidates think on it, see what reaction they get.  Two years is not all that big a lead time for tossing around names for a $10 million Senate race and the other races that would be affected.

[ Parent ]
The media part of "new media" (0.00 / 0)
Bill,
If you and I were sitting around, chugging some java, this type of talk would be "normal."

If we were joined by 5 Hampsters, while at some political event, this type of talk would be "normal."

But because our words can be read by others, cut and pasted into other media outlets or used to frame the perspective of a widely recognized opionist; it seems our private chat no longer belongs to us.

Hmmmmmm.

I like our talks here. Sometimes voices get raised and I'll admit, on occasion, my words are chosen to create an effect or atmosphere, but that would be done in person, as well.

I blog with the presumption that my offerings can be left or taken. The grand consequence of our discussions seems somewhat meta.

The butterfly effect comes to mind. Now, if the butterflies team up.........

Whack-a-mole, anyone?


[ Parent ]
Hmmmmm (4.00 / 2)
I guess I don't end up knowing whether you're agreeing or disagreeing w/ me.  

I do think that throwing out Steve's name in Sean's post and Maggie and Chris Pappas in Kathy's post (you know...the one where she's saying it's too early to discuss this stuff) is apple pie and harmlessly quotable.  Notwithstanding the noise further down this thread, people usually stay pretty constructive.  And if it reverberates beyond these four CPUs, seems like that's ok too.  Some names will gather steam and others probably won't.  That's the deal

Guess we'll have to settle it over coffee.


[ Parent ]
No, I gave that up (4.00 / 2)
I didn't say it was too early to talk - I gave that up already. I said it was too early to crown anyone as the nominee.  If people insist on talking about potential candidates for a seat that the incumbent may yet run for again, then let's not make anyone the presumed nominee!



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


[ Parent ]
I know... (0.00 / 0)
but I just couldn't resist...

[ Parent ]
Stop the presses (0.00 / 0)
I didn't say Marchand would win a primary, he would be my pick.

But I do think he could win in a primary, not saying Chris or Sen. Hassan are not great candidates, they all are.

Steve's a good friend and I think he would make a great Congressman.


[ Parent ]
the reason for the perception (0.00 / 0)
that Hodes gets more done is the media. Hodes has much friendlier media in his district. Carol has the UL.  

sanctimonious purist/professional lefty

Based in Manchester, but (0.00 / 0)
since the UL is statewide and covers both districts, is it fair to say that their bias against Carol is just sharper than against Paul? As Manchester's hometown paper though, I agree it presents a huge hurdle in the perception game.  

Just because your voice reaches halfway around the world doesn't mean you are wiser than when it reached only to the end of the bar.

www.emersondemocrats.com


[ Parent ]
I believe it is fair (0.00 / 0)
to say their bias against Carol is sharper. In my opinion that's a gender bias.  

sanctimonious purist/professional lefty

[ Parent ]
Stop the Masterbating (0.00 / 0)
Has anyone bothered to ask Carol what her plans are? Has anyone considered the fact that notwithstanding her possible viability as Gregg's challenger, Carol is more interested in governing and representing her constituents than opportunistic political ambition?

Carol is in fact solidifying her roots in the House by applying for another major (House) committee appointment, and is entirely focused on the serious work ahead in the midst of this economic meltdown. She has far too much real work to do right now helping to undo the damage of the last eight years than to give any serious consideration to another election campaign.

At this point, becoming a progressive leader in the US House has more practical appeal for her, and frankly, as she knows, is probably in her constituents' best interests as well.

I know we activists and junkies are still decompressing from a long and engaging election cycle (for me, it began in Jan 2007), but folks, I really think it's time for a "chill pill".


Go somewhere else. (0.00 / 0)
There is no requirement to join in a discussion here.

"Joining" just to say "Don't have that discussion - it doesn't interest me!" isn't valuable.


[ Parent ]
Master of Baiting? (4.00 / 3)
Why would having a real progressive like Carol or Paul in the Senate, a place that desperately needs some, not be in her or his constituents' best interests?

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Master Debaiter ? (0.00 / 0)
sounds fishy to me Dean

for transparency sake ~I represent Union print shops

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't touch this bait (0.00 / 0)
with a 10ft pole.

Whack-a-mole, anyone?

[ Parent ]
When I'm dead (4.00 / 1)
And not a minute sooner.

And by the way, you misspelled it. Maybe you're doing it too much.


[ Parent ]
Or are you (0.00 / 0)
a Mass. debater?

[ Parent ]
Master (0.00 / 0)
of my domain.

[ Parent ]
Deliberately Missing My Point (4.00 / 1)
1) I didn't say (or mean):

"Don't have that discussion - it doesn't interest me!"

My point is that it is groudless, and really frivolous speculation. Au contrare, it interests and concerns me greatly as an example of squandering and marginalizing the potency of our grassroots voice.

2)  A good recommendation does not make it either a fact or even the best recommendation:

Why would having a real progressive like Carol or Paul in the Senate, a place that desperately needs some, not be in her or his constituents' best interests?

E.g., in 2011, Carol could be either a 3rd term Congresswoman, well grounded in the ways and means of the House, with a high level of effectiveness, or a freshman Senator having to start over building a foundation. The House also can act with simple majorities, and less party discipline. Further, this discussion & buzz can be destructively distracting to both Paul & Carol as they focus on governing for the next year, rather than responding to groundless speculation.

Both Carol & Paul, and for that matter, Judd need (for our sake) to focus all their time & energy on tackling our State's and country's real challenges right now, and properly consider political opportunity in early 2010.

And from what I can see, that's just what they intend to do. My central point is that we activists should do our part in encouraging and supporting them in doing so, not undermining them with idle, admittedly entertaining, but really selfish speculation.

IMHO, it would be much productive for folks on this venue and others to stake out clear policies and initiatives to encourage our reps to pursue rather than this speculative and groundless chatter.


If you had been starting or joining (0.00 / 0)
the discussions we have had here about state tax policy, the school funding amendment, the role of the Governor's Council, civil unions vs. marriage equality, etc. - THEN you wouldn't look so foolish and self-important.

[ Parent ]
Your Title Was A Bit Hostile.... (0.00 / 0)
You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar, if you are truly here to catch flies.  

[ Parent ]
Yes & No (0.00 / 0)
Your Title Was A Bit Hostile.... (0.00 / 0)
You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar, if you are truly here to catch flies

You're right. Please accept my apology.

On the other hand, isn't this a bit hostile also?:

Go somewhere else. (0.00 / 0)
There is no requirement to join in a discussion here.

And name-calling is disrespectful and vulgar,

foolish and self-important

and is usually the tactic of someone who knows they're wrong and won't admit it.

This reply is not responsive:

If you had been starting or joining (0.00 / 0)
the discussions we have had here about state tax policy, the school funding amendment, the role of the Governor's Council, civil unions vs. marriage equality, etc. - THEN you wouldn't look so foolish and self-important.

If you're doing the right things, that's good, and I applaud it.  But that doesn't counterbalance or justify doing wrong things.

I think I've made a valid point, and welcome a discussion about it. If I'm wrong, or can learn something, I'll readily admit it, and express thanks for the teaching moment.


Here's a teaching moment: (4.00 / 1)
What you are doing is called "diary hijacking." You are taking a discussion that someone else started for the purpose of talking about one thing, and trying to stop that discussion and replace it with your own on a different topic.

If you want to "make a valid point" and "welcome a discussion of it," a point that by its nature disrupts the current diary, the way to do that is: Write a diary of you own on that new topic.

Is this a crisp, clear line? No, not always. A discussion in a coffeeshop of on a blog often explores side issues. But it was very clear here: you said that the diary's topic should not be discussed at all.

End of lesson.


[ Parent ]

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