A Taxonomy of Senate Appointments

Ah I see the asymmetry (0.00 / 0)

I have lumped all possible "Republicans who would run" into a single category rather than divide them into frontrunner and dark horse. But that makes sense: it ain't gonna happen in either case.

---

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 16:21:14 PM CST

Granny D (4.00 / 1)

Granny D -- ummm -- the most recent candidate to run against Judd Gregg, she's a New Hampshire and American treasure, and she just turned 99 and could celebrate her 100th on the Senate floor.  Now we're talking.  

---

by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 16:23:21 PM CST

As noted though (0.00 / 0)

The argument would be that the voters considered and overwhelmingly rejected her, and Lynch overturned their judgment.

---

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 16:29:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

John Rauh came closest no ? n/t (4.00 / 1)

Without deviation from the norm, 'progress' is not possible.

~Frank Zappa

---

by: JonnyBBad @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:16:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes - he was within about 3 points (4.00 / 1)

in Gregg's first run for Senate. His name should get included in the lists.

---

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:20:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

h/t to Jim Monahan (4.00 / 1)

Without deviation from the norm, 'progress' is not possible.

~Frank Zappa

---

by: JonnyBBad @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:24:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Other disqualification for 1 or 2 (0.00 / 0)

If Judd Gregg is negotiating over the matter with the "If we can't agree on a replacement then I won't do it" argument, then he might well demand that the replacement not be someone who would be likely to have a strong incumbent advantage in two years. If Gregg wants the Cabinet position badly enough, then he might give up on negotiations - but if he's more partisan and Governor Lynch tries to stand tough, then Gregg might come out and blame Lynch for scuttling the whole deal, which Lynch would not be pleased about at all. So I would think they'd quickly narrow in on acceptable caretakers, as you said.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

---

by: RealNRH @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 16:29:37 PM CST

I really don't think he can publicly blame Lynch (0.00 / 0)

for screwing up the deal. Lynch has the Constitution and history on his side; Gregg would look like a spoiled brat.

But the threat of just quietly staying in the Senate without blaming anyone might be enough to negotiate with.

---

by: elwood @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 06:06:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ripple Effect (4.00 / 1)

As I understand the law (RSA 661:6), if there is a vacancy in the U.S. Representative office a special election is held rather than the Governor appointing a temporary replacement.

Unless there is a strong Democratic to hit the ground running in either district, my guess is that the Governor will avoid appointing Hodes or Shea-Porter to a vacancy in the Senate seat because it would then required an immediate special election for the vacant congressional seat.

That is the same situation if he chooses a state senator to fill the U.S. Senate position. See NH Constitution, Part II, Article 34.

If I were a gambler, I would bet that Governor Lynch will appoint a Republican or Democratic seatwarmer who is not a U.S. Representative or State Senator simply because of the need to fill that subsequently empty seat by special election.  Although one may argue that the Democrats won overwelming in November 2008, the Republicans would have a better chance of capturing the consequently vacant seat in a special election.

This is all assuming that Judd Gregg is offered the position and he accepts, of course, which I am still finding it hard to believe.

---

by: gradysdad @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:56:59 PM CST

Sorry (0.00 / 0)

I left out the word "candidate" after "Democratic" in the second paragraph.

---

by: gradysdad @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 17:57:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think the cost of a state Senate election (4.00 / 2)

would tip the balance. But I also end up thinking it will be a seat warmer.

---

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 18:02:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Cost (4.00 / 3)

I am not really thinking cost. I am thinking that he does not want to narrow his majority in the state senate with the good possibility that the Republicans might go all out to win a special election in the vacant district.

It is a lot tougher to get good candidates to run for the state senate because of the time involved and the lack of pay.

---

by: gradysdad @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 18:10:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

but wait... (0.00 / 0)

The U.S. Department of Commerce (Herbert Hoover) building in Washington, DC, must surely be the most ginormous Federal structure that isn't the Pentagon.  It stretches for blocks.

How can Judd possibly resist the offer, if made?  The Secretary must get a cool office, plenty of flunkies, in this flat-lined economy a big podium with lots of attention, and a tenure of 4 and very likely 8 years. (If he's a good boy.)  Has he no personal ambition beyond being a U.S. Senator, no ego to drive him onward and upward?  Doesn't he want to continue to keep his distance from NH?

And I just don't understand why the minority party in both Washington and Concord dictates terms of acceptance in this situation.  I'm no gambler, I'm not handicapping anybody's chances, but I'd bet the Lynch appointee will have a D by his/her name.

Go for it, Gregg!

---

by: smileydem @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 20:45:50 PM CST

"the most ginormous Federal structure that isn't the Pentagon." (4.00 / 1)

Close, but the building you're thinking of is actually next door to the Hoover building.

The beautiful Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, which houses several government agencies, performance halls, private office space, convention space, etc., is the largest building in Washington, several times the square footage of the Capitol.  It was authorized as part of an effort to revitalize a historic neighborhood in the Federal Triangle Development Act, signed by President Reagan in 1987; at the time it was built, it was the most expensive federal building ever constructed.  That was near the end of the Presidency that turned America from the world's greatest creditor nation into the world's greatest debtor nation, and left an unreasonable ideology that prevents political will for necessary government revenue, among other harmful sentiments and legacies.

My point is this: it's a fitting monument to the patron saint of you-can-have-your-government-and-not-pay-for-it-too.

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 01:34:48 AM CST

[ Parent ]

special election? (4.00 / 1)

Is it at all possible for the Legislature, acting quickly, to swoop in and declare a special election by overturning RSA 661:5?

Garrett Dash Nelson

---

by: Garrett Dash Nelson @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 21:33:28 PM CST

Possible, not likely (0.00 / 0)

We've discussed that here...

---

by: elwood @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 21:38:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If it MUST be a Republican (4.00 / 1)

A premise I completely reject, by the way, but if it must, I nominate:

Kenny Hall.

---

by: JimC @ Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 21:47:23 PM CST

Nice history piece in the UL by Joe McQuaid (4.00 / 1)

On the appointment of Styles Bridges' successor. I hadn't known most of the story.

But Joe gets one thing slightly wrong: 1961 was not quite "the last time a New Hampshire Governor had to appoint a U.S. Senator." That was in 1975, after Wyman and Durkin agreed to a new election and the seat was declared vacant in the meantime. No controversy then, though: Thomson appointed Norris Cotton for a short return to the seat he had left voluntarily.

---

by: elwood @ Sun Feb 01, 2009 at 05:54:53 AM CST