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Will Lynch's Legacy Be Killing Universal Health Care?

by: Mike Caulfield

Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:36:02 AM EST


Just a thought.

We talk inside baseball here.

We talk comity vs. partisanship.

But here's where it ends up for me. There will be many votes on health care this session. And if Lynch puts someone in there that blocks universal health care because he wants his legacy to be comity, well, it's on him.

Playing the game of trying to guess what the voters want is stupid. Making a deal based on what Judd Gregg wants is even more stupid.

But John Lynch has the opportunity to be the man who brought universal health care to America, brought the troops home, saved the economy, and rebuilt our infrastructure.

And just as surely, he has the potential to be the person who stopped every one of those things from happening, because he believed in comity more than the good that one great Senator could accomplish.

John -- whoever you elect, Democrat or Republican, every vote of theirs is on you. Every filibuster is yours. You will own it, not us.

Choose the person that reflects your values.

They will be your legacy.

Update: Just to be clear:

1. No it's not fair that Lynch has been put in this position. I understand that. But it's the position he is in.

2. I don't care so much if it is a Democrat or Republican. I mean, I care, actually very much. But the most important thing is will they filibuster. If Lynch puts in a roadblocker, ala Gregg or Newman, it is on Lynch. There are plenty of Republicans in the state. I'm sure he can find at least one that thinks that Judd's use of procedural votes to block things with majority support is beneath him or her. And if he can't, he should put in a Democrat.

3. I don't think anyone has ever accused me of giving Obama a free ride. But I can't see that part of this; it's hard to comment on that. The visible part of this is Lynch's decision. Plus, Lynch is close, and Washington far away.

4. Yes, every filibuster will be on him. But the other point of this is it cuts both ways. Every time that majority legislation is not blocked, I will thank high heaven for a Governor like John Lynch. That's not such a bad deal.

Mike Caulfield :: Will Lynch's Legacy Be Killing Universal Health Care?
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John Lynch Isn't The Boogyman (4.00 / 2)
IMHO, we're putting WAY too many eggs in the basket when we try to promote Judd Gregg to Commerce Secretary by imagining that if he's there, and opens a Senate seat, and we get a Democrat in that Senate seat, that all filibusters will be prevented and all vetoes will be overridden.

It doesn't work that way.  A "filibuster-proof" or "veto-proof" Senate doesn't automatically exist by the partyship number.  It takes a lot of deal-making for sixty Senators to stick together on anything.  And not all Senate Democrats are on the same page on issues like universal health care, or getting out of Iraq VIA and specific plan, or rebuilding the economy.  

I hope John Lynch does appoint a Democrat to fill Judd Gregg's Senate vacancy, if one occurs.  But if he doesn't he hasn't become the boogyman.  

I think we're being blinded thinking that all things for New Hampshire Democrats will be so much better with Judd Gregg out of the Senate.  We're lusting for Judd Gregg to be named Commerce Secretary/Cabinet Member, without really thinking through what may well happen if when he does.

Instead of hurting New Hampshire Republicans, his appointment might well renew them.  John E. Sununu will be in place to run for his seat in 2010, and he could be tougher than Gregg would be.  We'd be adding to the resume of Judd Gregg, who is still young enough to go further in his political career.  And if a Republican is named to replace him, we get nowhere -- instead, we slide backwards.

I'm still hoping Barack Obama will check his bench and put someone better in there. That's where the most important decision lies, not with John Lynch. Being Commerce Secretary/Cabinet Member is not a do-nothing honorary position.  


May be for Democrats (4.00 / 1)

it does not work that way...

It doesn't work that way.  A "filibuster-proof" or "veto-proof" Senate doesn't automatically exist by the partyship number.  It takes a lot of deal-making for sixty Senators to stick together on anything.

But Republicans, as seen recently on the house stimulus vote and documented here by Greenwald appear to have no problem with it.

J



[ Parent ]
Reality Check Time (4.00 / 3)
One of the things going on in this discussion that puzzles me is why so many (with the exclusion of Jim Splaine and Susan Bruce) are willing to give President Obama a pass on picking Judd Gregg, but ready to tear John Lynch into little pieces for - possibly - agreeing to choose a Republican to replace Gregg IF the President appoints Gregg.

So, let me paint two pictures, and you all let me know which one makes sense:

1. Barack Obama comes up with the brilliant idea of plucking a Republican senator and putting him in the congress so that the Democratic governor will pick a Democratic senator and thereby give the President 60 Democratic votes (except one of those is the unreliable Joe Lieberman, but I digress). But, the Democratic governor, who is facing a rather large budget deficit, in a state with the NH primary that relies on the good will of our national figures (despite our delusions that NH manages to keep this thing all on our own), decides to stick the president in the eye just before decisions are made as to which states get how much money to help bail them out of the current fiscal emergency. And as a result will also face unbelievable political backlash from the Democrats in the state - the Democrats who now have the largest party registration. And he is doing this why?  To make the Republicans happy? The leader of whom has been running around the state calling him the worst governor ever?

2. Barack Obama comes up with the brilliant idea of taking one of the Republican go to guys in the senate and putting him in his cabinet so as to make the bipartisan nature of his cabinet more of a reality, the politics of change and all of that, yada, yada, yada. However, the senator also says, um, Mr. President, if I accept, our Democratic governor will likely pick a Democratic replacement, and I literally will never be able to go home again.  So, it is made known to John Lynch that he will be doing the President a really, really big favor if he finds as inoffensive Republican as possible to fill the seat on a temporary basis so that said senator will accept the appointment.

Now, call me silly, but I really, really, really don't think scenario one is realistic. But that's just my opinion.

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


Oh, I agree that it is scenario 2 (4.00 / 3)
And in scenario 2, Governor Lynch has a responsibility to tell the President, "Sorry - this is not your call, sir."

The constitutional principles of separate branches balancing each other, and of federalism, make that very clear.


[ Parent ]
Adding - (4.00 / 1)
I appreciate that it puts Lynch in an awkward position.

That's why I was pushing to change the law to provide for special elections rather than appointments before there was any hint of a Gregg opening.


[ Parent ]
Not a bad point!... (4.00 / 1)
I don't think there is an appreciation by some that this is a big headache for John Lynch.  There are some of our friends here - like Burt and Arnie - who seem to believe that John Lynch has been dying for the opportunity to appoint a Republican to replace Judd Gregg - which kind of flies in the face of the tv ads he did for Jeanne Shaheen, but maybe that was part of the plot as well, in their minds?


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
Tag, You're it! (4.00 / 2)
TPM says,

An administration official, trying to tamp down talk that a deal was being hatched, said, "The president will choose the best person for the job, and if it's Sen. Gregg, Gov. (John) Lynch will have sole responsibility in choosing his replacement."

Colin Manning, spokesman for Gov. Lynch, declined to say whether the governor had struck a deal to appoint a Republican. "This is something that is between (the White House and Sen. Gregg) at this point," he said.



The giant checks its pockets.

Regrets? None!  


[ Parent ]
Rope (0.00 / 0)
Now you done it: Clearly demonstrated what you mean by your FDR rope quote. As a friend and rock solid Democrat, please, Kathy before you are out there on your rope so far it's impossible to come back to solid ground, really: step back and consider what you are saying. Just because Lynch may be comfortable switching his party ID (as many in Concord already surmised) doesn't mean the old party leadership wants to do the same.
Take a step back from the edge before it's too late.  

[ Parent ]
Oh, I forgot something (4.00 / 1)
In scenario 1, Governor Lynch would face open rebellion from you, Burt!  That makes scenario 1 even more unlikely!  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
No longer the majority (0.00 / 0)
Kathy do you really believe the actual troops, those in the trenches of the Democratic Party will be marching with the old Kowtow-to-the-Republicans former leadership? No Kathy there is a Democratic Party! If Lynch appoints a Republican, he's made his choice. I may oppose gambling, but on this one, if Lynch really does come out of the closet as a Republican (I'm holding out hope), I will gladly wager Democrats will be Democrats!  

[ Parent ]
John Lynch: Between White House Sandstone And State House Granite (4.00 / 1)
You're right in your observation about John Lynch, Kathy -- and that's why I've observed that John Lynch is squeezed between White House sandstone and State House granite.  He really is.  For this "deal" to work he may have to bow to Barack Obama and name a Republican.  

We shouldn't be making that kind of deal. It's a bad deal.  John Lynch shouldn't be put into that position.  That's why I'm willing to understand his dilemma, and not be too overly critical if he decides to do so.  It's a horrible position to be put into.  He shouldn't be put into that position.

This whole situation should be avoided -- can be avoided -- by encouraging Barack Obama to look toward his bench.  There ARE better choices than Judd Gregg.  


[ Parent ]
I think you misunderstand me a little (4.00 / 6)
I have no problem with a Republican. As a matter of fact, who is picked does not even have to vote for health care or any of those things.

They just have to not filibuster.

This Chief of Staff rumor is disturbing. I don't believe that Judd, the roadblocker extraordinaire has a chief of staff that is not going to be obstructionist.

I believe that Lynch has to decide this not on the basis of what the party affiliation is. He has to decide it based on what the person would do.

If he put Peterson in, I would, with Elwood, applaud.

But if he has a choice (and you make a case he doesn't have much of one) -- he will own the filibusters.

And I appreciate it's not fair it falls on him. But politics is often like that.




[ Parent ]
As Truman said (0.00 / 0)
The buck stops here.  Gov. Lynch must take responsibility for whatever decision he makes.  It is his responsibility is to pick the best person to represent the people of New Hampshire in Washington. He accepted that responsibility when he became governor.  

As a Democratic governor, he is the titular head of the Democratic party in New Hampshire.  If he picks a Republican (even an inoffensive one) to serve out Gregg's term, there will be a perception that there are no Democrats qualified to be senator.

For the record, I think Gregg is a lousy choice for Commerce Secretary and would be happy to see anything that throws a spanner in the the works.

I guess I'm just naive and think politicians should make decisions based on doing what is the right thing.

 

"Plus Ça Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose"


[ Parent ]
A thought experiment (0.00 / 0)
What if:
John Lynch were to support someone who is pro-choice, supported state income tax, is very strong on the environment, against torture, favors universal health care, was against Iraq invasion, denounced the politicization of the DOJ, could be relied upon to not uphold a filibuster, and pledged not to run in 2010...

BUT WAS A REGISTERED REPUBLICAN

What would everyone here do-- would you be happy or sad with the replacement for Gregg?
Would you think the world a better place?
Would you think it a horrible outcome, worth starting a civil war over?

In other words, does party registration trump everything in your opinion?


"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  


Not everything (0.00 / 0)
But from your description, I expect the candidate to ride across a field on a white horse.

[ Parent ]
There are people like that out there..... (0.00 / 0)

and if they would make you happy, maybe we all should chill a bit and see who is named by the governor
(if indeed any of this comes to pass).

Meanwhile, I must go saddle the white horse for ....

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  


[ Parent ]
How's the pig in a blanket? n/t (0.00 / 0)


The giant checks its pockets.

Regrets? None!  


[ Parent ]
thank you for asking, Sylvia is as fine as a 14 yr.old sow can be in mid winter (4.00 / 1)
She is glad that it is a bit warmer out and she couldn't care less who the Governor names. She does wonder why the Donkeys get their own political party, but then I remind her that her species had its day when nominated by the Yippies for president.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

[ Parent ]
Pigasus! (4.00 / 1)
Of course I'm too young to know about that but Jon tells stories...

[ Parent ]
for the age challenged (4.00 / 1)
here is a link to Pigasus, being arrested by the forces of repression at the 1968 Democratic convention.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

[ Parent ]
It's a little annoying when (4.00 / 3)
Obama and Lynch each float trial balloons to get a warning on public reaction, and then people get told to wait and see what happens.

Lynch appears to be floating the name of Bonnie Newman (or someone else is, hoping to show Lynch that she would be a good choice). She does not appear to fit your template.


[ Parent ]
Exactly (4.00 / 2)
What are we, if not weather watchers?

[ Parent ]
was talking about the intensity and of some responses, not the expression of opinion on the issue. (4.00 / 1)

While it's all fascinating, i just dont think it merits the level of intensity shown in some responses. A matter of taste perhaps. But i am about to encase my fingers in quick drying cement, so adios for now.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

[ Parent ]
Actually the intensity is needed (4.00 / 1)
to judge how the trial balloon flies.

It would be unfair to offer a clinical analysis today, then explode when an appointment were made.


[ Parent ]
Re: start a civil war (0.00 / 0)
The shots on Fort Sumter will not be fired from Blue Hampshire if they come...

[ Parent ]
No. Principles trump everything (0.00 / 0)
As Dean said: health care, foreign policy, civil liberties, so many issues.
Does power reside at the top or with the citizens? Principles trump everything!

[ Parent ]
labels shouldn't matter (4.00 / 2)
and they don't to broad swath of voters.

Without deviation from the norm, 'progress' is not possible.

~Frank Zappa


[ Parent ]
No deal (4.00 / 2)
Let's assume, for a moment, that some sort of "balance of the Senate" deal was made.

I don't care -- really -- if Barack Obama personally called Judd Gregg and had John Lynch on a conference line when he did it.

The deal is wrong, insults every member of both parties, and ought to be null and void.



That is a consistent opinion (0.00 / 0)
That position is consistent - like Jim spaline and Susan Bruce.  The position I am having a really hard time with is the one that is silent on the President's appointing a Republican to the cabinet (like Burt Cohen), but pillories the Governor.

All based on unsourced speculation.

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


[ Parent ]
spelling!! (0.00 / 0)
Jim Splaine! Sorry!!

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
Them's fightin' Freudian slips. (4.00 / 2)
THERE IS NO "PALIN" IN JIM SPLAINE!

I demand a far more rigorous apology to the Hon. James Splaine.  The apology must take the following form:

"Jim, I am really, really, really sorry.  Also, in 95% of our disagreements, you have been right.  Furthermore, I agree that Gov. Lynch must not appoint any Republican to the Senate who would be even remotely likely to align himself or herself with Republicans in the case of a filibuster.  Should he appoint Bonnie Newman or Doug Scamman, I will publicly declare it to be a poor choice.  Should he appoint Charlie Bass, or, God forbid, John E. Sununu, I will publicly demand that the President of the NH Senate assume the powers of the Governor due to his evident mental incapacity."

Any failure to make this precise apology in this precise form will be construed as an application for membership in the Sarah Palin Is Dreamy fanclub.


[ Parent ]
Are you really that clueless to Democrats? (0.00 / 0)
Average people who vote Democrat, not the "important insiders," real people, are telling me they can't believe any Democrat who thinks of him/herself as a leader would possibly defend the appointment of a Republican. Tune in to reality Kathy.

[ Parent ]
Real people? (0.00 / 0)
Boy, I wish were you, Burt. You get to define real Democrats, real people, reality in general! Must be great :)

But I will have to tell the non-activist Democrats I spoke with over the weekend and this morning when getting their opinions that they are not real people.  It will make them sad :(

(Perhaps they are Cylons and this is an episode of Battlestar Galactica?)


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


[ Parent ]
Thanks for acknowledging that (0.00 / 0)
I'm not going to get into the current Cohen/Sullivan thing.


[ Parent ]
And not only that (4.00 / 3)
I'm still waiting for someone to speculate what the two parties get in the "deal."  A deal implies that both sides get something.

We know what Judd Gregg gets.

What does Lynch get? What does New Hampshire get? What does the State Democratic Party that busted its butt to turn the state Blue get?


[ Parent ]
Quids pro quo. (4.00 / 5)
What does Lynch get?

A demonstration of his bipartisanship and a likely boost in his approval ratings (yeah, like he's really hurting on those counts), a friend in the Senate (which he doesn't have if Judd stays), a NH native who'll take his calls in the cabinet, and a grateful President.  Also, a more successful President and Democratic brand, and thus a better America and a better New Hampshire.

What does New Hampshire get?

A more successful President, an NH native in the cabinet (for what that's worth), and a better Senator (maybe vaguely adequate (Newman?), maybe quite good (Peterson), maybe great (Hutson)).  Also, a more successful President and Democratic brand, and thus a better America and a better New Hampshire.

What does the State Democratic Party that busted its butt to turn the state Blue get?

A more more successful President, a better America and a better New Hampshire, thus a better Democratic brand; also, a further undermining of the ancient reactionary core of the NH Republican party and an open seat in 2010.

Still, I'd personally shovel John Lynch's driveway for the rest of the winter if he appointed Granny D.


[ Parent ]
Me neither (0.00 / 0)
I officially sign out of this discussion. Kathy can enjoy herself any way she wants.  

An open seat in 2010 (0.00 / 0)
I feel compelled to get off the sidelines on this  issue, here goes:

I agree with Kathy. Isn't the larger question here why would President Obama put someone like Judd Gregg in his cabinet? Obama knows how partisan Gregg is and the president doesn't care. Obama knows Gregg would never let his seat go to a Democrat and yet the president doesn't care. So let's not praise Obama for being bipartisan and criticize Gov. Lynch. Obama knows the consequences of choosing Gregg.

To another point, if Lynch appoints a Republican to fill Gregg's seat every filibuster will be on him? Really? Well, if Gregg does not become Commerce Secretary and stays in the Senate then whose head are the filibusters on? Still Lynch, or Obama now?

I can safely say just about everyone posting here wants Gregg out of the Senate. The hope had been Gregg would lose re-election to Democrats in 2010. Well, it's only 2009 and there is a very good chance Gregg will be out of the Senate in a matter of weeks. Lynch will not put someone in Gregg's seat who will run for re-election. Whether they are Democrat or Republican, they will be a place holder.

What does this all mean? An open seat in 2010. We should all be celebrating today!


I've missed the praise of the Gregg appointment. (4.00 / 4)
That seems like a straw man to me.

If Gregg stays in the Senate, any filibusters he joins are laid at the table of the people who chose him: the New Hampshire electorate of 2004. If Lynch names a new Senator, any filibusters s/he joins will be laid at the table of the people who chose him or her: John Lynch, period. That wasn't complicated.

The name most mentioned in the last 24 hours as Lynch's choice is Bonnie Newman. She is 63, and I although she might promise to not run in 2010 that cannot be binding.


[ Parent ]
An answer (4.00 / 2)
Well, if Gregg does not become Commerce Secretary and stays in the Senate then whose head are the filibusters on? Still Lynch, or Obama now?

Neither. It will be on the people that voted for him in 2004.

I'm sorry, but with power comes responsibility. The people of this state are responsible for what Judd has done to this country up until now (and in the future if he stays).

And Lynch will be responsible for the actions of whoever he puts in.

Do you possibly have another way of looking at that? Or do you believe that when people vote they bear no responsibility for the action of officials that they elect?




[ Parent ]
OK, we want him out of the Senate (4.00 / 2)
but that doesn't mean we want him in the cabinet!

I agree that this is a "What are you thinking, Obama?" moment more than a Lynch one.


[ Parent ]
Be Careful About What We Ask For (4.00 / 2)
Right on, Alex.  Getting him out of the Senate into the White House Cabinet Room is a roll of the dice I don't want to make.  And setting up 2010 for John E. Sununu to run for the open seat can backfire to us.

John Sununu, unlike this recent cycle, and unlike Judd Gregg, would have no "Senate responsibilities" for the next two years.  He can be on-the-ground, campaigning day in and day out -- one thing he wasn't able to do last time around.  He'd be tougher than before, and I'd suggest he could be tougher than facing Judd Gregg.  

IMHO,we should be careful about what we ask for.  This entire "deal," "arrangement," "situation," whatever it might be called, is not good for New Hampshire Democrats.

Too many of us are lusting with joy that we'll get Gregg out of the Senate.  What we'll end up with may be Gregg in the White House Cabinet Room, in charge of an important 38,000 employee federal department, a "caretaker" Republican which doesn't help us in the Senate, and a tougher race for the open seat in 2010.  What have we gained?  


[ Parent ]
It seems that if anyone (0.00 / 0)
is killing the idea of universal health care, it's Obama, with his attempt to appoint tax dodger and influence peddling whore Tom Daschle. http://www.salon.com/opinion/g...

Of course, universal health care used to be code for single-payer health care. During the last presidential campaign, candidates like Obama and Clinton co-opted the term, which now means "taxpayers funding insurance companies."

Forgive me for being unwilling to compromise on single payer. Forgive me for being unwilling to give another insurance company a ruddy dime. I've spent the last couple of years dealing with insurance companies, on behalf of my husband - who has a terminal illness. Nothing like being told that surgery to replace 3 cervical vertebrae with titanium (after cancer ate away the bone) is "elective."

I find all of this nauseating beyond belief. I can't think of a single good thing Judd Gregg has ever done for the nation, or any reason WHY he should be elevated to the cabinet. No one else seems to be able to think of anything either. Instead, the excitement is all about getting rid of him as a Senator.

I don't want Gregg in the cabinet. Why the hell are Democrats defending this? It's not as if Gregg is a moderate or reasonable Republican. What the hell, people?

The fact that we have all this ongoing dialogue about intrigue and deal making over Gregg's seat is equally nauseating. That we can't rely on our Democratic Governor to appoint a Dem is sick making in itself - but all of this "she promises not to run in 2010" is making our state no better than Illinois. At least Blagojevich was honest in his attempts to gain from the selling of a senate seat.  


If we don't get a national fix (4.00 / 1)
we should do something at the state level. Progress happens in the laboratories of democracy. It's just as horrible that everyone defers to Washington, when we could be getting stuff done in Concord.

[ Parent ]
It's a question of focus (4.00 / 2)
I can't have much say on whether Obama will appoint him or not. If I was Kos or Atrios, I'd focus on that.

But I can have a say on who replaces him. We all can. New Hampshire is small enough that that is possible.

That's why I focus on that.

My opinion on the appointment is Gregg is not a good choice, and his appointment may help Obama do some good things, and it may not, but I think the Obama team is overestimating their advantage here.

I think the Blago comparison is unfair though. I don't think that Lynch would trade the public good for personal advantage or reward. I believe he will do what he thinks is best. But I also believe, given the names floated, that he is underestimating the damage the wrong sort of appointment could do to this country.




[ Parent ]
Hey Mike, (0.00 / 0)
did you know this diary was linked on the Front Page at Daily Kos? They managed to kill the Mudflats blog with traffic for a while when Kos linked to it. Expect more traffic here.

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