"Sadly Disconnected from the Voters"

thanks, Sarah Palin!! n/t (0.00 / 0)

member of the professional left  

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by: susanthe @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 07:47:21 AM CST

Crystal Ball (0.00 / 0)

In May of 2007, while working for someone else, I predicted that Barack Obama would win the 2008 election and become President.  Here I go again.

In the 19 midterm elections that have occurred since FDR took office in 1932, the President's party has lost an average of 3.5 US Senate seats.  An incumbent President's party has seen a net gain in seats during five of those elections, which occurred during the first terms of Presidents Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush, respectively.  We broke even during President Clinton's second midterm in 1998; other than those six, every midterm since 1932 has seen a loss for the President's party.

That said, I predict that Democrats will have a net gain of US Senate seats in 2010, or at least break even, despite the long-term trend of a President's party losing seats in a midterm.

If I'm right about this, expect me to never shut up about having predicted it.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 08:35:46 AM CST

Tangential fact: (0.00 / 0)

As stated above, Dems broke even during Clinton's second midterm in 1998.  Every other second midterm since 1932 has seen a loss in a second midterm.

Going back even further, only once since the Civil War (my source only goes back to 1860) has a President's party actually seen a net gain during a second midterm.  That President was Teddy Roosevelt, and that election (1908) occurred before the 17th Amendment was ratified providing for the direct election of Senators.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 08:40:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's Hope (4.00 / 1)

I predicted Maine would easily crush the anti-equal marriage effort. Wrong.

I thought the tea partiers would be dancing in the streets in NY 23, wrong again.

I was right on NJ, the personal nastiness backfired.

All this is no reflection on Obama's strength: the troops just stayed home, not motivated enough.

Doug, I hope to listen to your "never shutting up!"

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 09:46:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You're right, it's not a reflection on Obama. (4.00 / 2)

Big majorities in yesterday's NJ and VA exit polls said that Obama was not a factor in their vote for Governor, and in both states, the percentage wanting their vote to send a message in opposition to the President was similar to the percentage wanting to send a message in support.

Meanwhile, there were only two races for federal office yesterday (things that are directly relevant to the President), each in a district whose US Representative resigned to take a position in the Obama administration.  Democrats won both seats.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 10:42:09 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sununu is delusional (4.00 / 1)

I have said it before and I will say it again: Sununu is a gift to the NH Democrats. Today he is telling the media it was a good day for Republicans in NH. Say what?

The NH Republicans lost yesterday.

Out of ten mayoral races in Manchester yesterday Republican only won ONE race!

(and they had to out spend the Dem five to one!)

Out of 14 Manchesterd aldermanic races - Republicans only won ONE race!

Democratic majorities were increased in nearly every city - there are more Democrats than Republicans on 11 of the 13 city councils!

In the state rep special election in Concord they appear to have won by 20 votes (pending recount) in an historically low turnout and they out spent the Democrat three to one!

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 10:53:36 AM CST

okay, clearly I was distracted by a call... (0.00 / 0)

Out of ten mayoral races in NH yesterday Republicans only won ONE race!


Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 11:00:47 AM CST

per George Bruno on Charlie Sherman's radio show this morning (4.00 / 1)

have not had a chanceto fact check..
"There have been 5 special elections for Congress since last years election of Barack Obama, and the Democrats are 5 for 5."

6 days till election day
Have you knocked on doors today? Have you made calls ? Have you talked to your neighbors ?  

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 12:24:41 PM CST

Correct (4.00 / 2)

Rahm Emanuel (CoS), Hilda Solis (Labor), John McHugh (Army), and Ellen Tauscher (State - Arms Control/Int'l Security) all were administration appointees.  Kirsten Gillibrand -- the first Dartmouth woman elected to Congress -- was appointed to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

All five of these seats were won by Democrats in special elections.  Emanuel's and Solis' seats were as safe as they come, but Tauscher's was borderline, and Gillibrand and McHugh represented historically GOP districts.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 12:33:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

exactly n/t (4.00 / 1)

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 12:37:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]