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The title is a trick question for me as well as others. We look at the history of the past century and see that war doesn't have to be inevitable. Until it is.
The history of warfare is long and ugly. I look at it through art, as in Picasso's "Guernica", or the Schiller book on the Thirty Years' War someone gave me, complete with pictures from the time. Ever see a graphic depiction of someone being drawn and quartered? Not pretty.
Then there is the collateral damage. People die who have nothing to do with the conflict, except being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The book "All Quiet on the Western Front" stands out as a classic anti-war book, written by someone who was there. WW I was an especially brutal war, the first time chemical and biological weapons were used along with soldiers on horseback. Slaughter in trenches.
I believe that war made the second world war inevitable. Should the US have stayed out of that one?
Here's a scene from one of my favorite movies, "The Best Years of Our Lives". I am not comparing the present situation in Afghanistan to the situation in WW II. It's another point altogether.
There is an article in today's New York Times describing Obama's decision making process with regard to sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. It wasn't something he took lightly. He spent many hours studying the situation, and listened to many people.
"The president welcomed a full range of opinions and invited contrary points of view," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in an interview last month. "And I thought it was a very healthy experience because people took him up on it. And one thing we didn't want - to have a decision made and then have somebody say, 'Oh, by the way.' No, come forward now or forever hold your peace."
The decision represents a complicated evolution in Mr. Obama's thinking. He began the process clearly skeptical of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's request for 40,000 more troops, but the more he learned about the consequences of failure, and the more he narrowed the mission, the more he gravitated toward a robust if temporary buildup, guided in particular by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates.
The key here is an "evolution in thinking." Which brings me to my favorite singer/songwriter, Bruce Cockburn. Cockburn has been an activist for human rights around the globe for nearly thirty years. It is expressed in his music. He was an outspoken critic of George W. Bush's Iraq invasion. Yet he supports Canada's mission in Afghanistan.
It's a long discussion on whether we should be in Afghanistan -- whether anyone should be in Afghanistan. But since we are and we've gone this far, I don't think it's appropriate to leave at this stage.
"Certainly, I have not had the idea that anyone I have talked to among the soldiers is hiding anything or trying to slant things to a particular view. They believe in what they are doing and are witnesses to what they are doing, and I have to accept the truth of what they are telling me. I don't think it's a good plan to be pulling out of here -- with the circumstances at this time."
His brother, Captian John Cockburn, is a doctor who joined the army two years ago at the age of 55. Speaking about his musician brother:
"He has always been interested, even as a kid, in military issues and hardware and explosions. I think that's just remained, and with all the various exposures he's had to conflict zones, I think he's accepted the reality that the military is necessary, like it or not. And I think he's gained a lot of appreciation of what military people do. He's always pretty sympathetic to the downtrodden; but without the military to keep things in balance, things don't work out."
This song makes me a little uncomfortable. I guess Cockburn meant it that way. He performed it for the soldiers during his visit:
What does this have to do with Obama? Well, he probably doesn't have Bruce Cockburn on his I-Pod, but like Cockburn, his thinking has had to evolve for the changing circumstances. I have always been a skeptic of military solutions. But I have enough respect for Obama's thought process that I am giving him the benefit of the doubt on this. Pundits are in agreement that this Afghanistan policy will be the defining moment of his presidency. If it were Bush, would I be taking a different tack? Probably, but that would be because I did not trust Bush's intellectual capacity nor his motives. He gave me no reason to.
President Obama read the book Lessons in Disaster, by Gordon Goldstein, about the Vietnam War:
Among the conclusions that Mr. Donilon and the White House team drew from the book was that both President John F. Kennedy and President Lyndon B. Johnson failed to question the underlying assumption about monolithic Communism and the domino theory - clearly driving the Obama advisers to rethink the nature of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
So the President is not running headlong unconsciously into another quagmire. Will it work? I don't know, and neither does anybody else.
In his speech at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, President Clinton, more than once, said some things are unknowable. But a leader has to do them. The intervention in the Balkans was successful. I hope this temporary escalation in Afghanistan is also successful, for the sake of all involved.