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Is 155 Registered Voters Even a Poll?

by: Dean Barker

Tue Feb 09, 2010 at 22:02:30 PM EST
Laura's got the skinny on the various races polled by UNH, and elwood is absolutely right in that for a change we don't have another sample of Cloud Hampshire.

I'll just add two observations.  

1) In pretty much all the matchups, it's clear that the Democratic base is depressed.  If nothing else happened other than that the D percentages matched the R ones (and there's lots of other positive things that can happen with undecideds and undeclareds besides), this poll would have an entirely different narrative.  So, good thing there's lots of time between now and November, though that time will only matter if President Obama and Congressional Democrats understand their base problem now.  With the seemingly daily Tom and Jerry theatre between Republicans and the White House, however, I'm not sure they do get it.

2) Just by way of an example (though others would suffice too), I spent some time poking around the CSP-Guinta macthup.  UNH polled 155 registered voters for that one. Is 155 people even a poll?
Dean Barker :: Is 155 Registered Voters Even a Poll?
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Is 155 Registered Voters Even a Poll? | 5 comments
I agree... (0.00 / 0)
when Dean says the D base is depressed. I also do not think the Dem leadership has fully understood this point yet. As bad as some prognosticators/doomsayers are predicting 2010 will be for Dems, this meme can be demolished by turnout similar t0 2008. Voters just need a prod, which has been lacking from D.C./party leadership. (Please put Howard Dean in charge of the DNC again). 155 voters seems ridiculously small. There needs to be some baseline number when it can be called a poll, maybe 500?  

res severa verum gaudia
A Warning... (4.00 / 2)
The UNH poll is a warning, nothing more. It's a reminder that every Democrat will have to work from now through November to elect Paul Hodes to the Senate and send Carol Shea-Porter back to the House.

A historic note: Lawduck talks about a "turnout similar to 2008." In terms of raw numbers, that's not going to happen.

You can retrieve the exact numbers from the secretary of state's Web site, but take a look at the approximate total number of votes cast for Congress here in the First District:

2008: 340,000
2006: 195,000
2004: 323,000
2002: 219,000
2000: 284,000
1998: 156,000

They don't call 'em off-year elections for nothing. We'll likely see a similar drop in total turnout this November, and the most energized voters are the ones most likely to vote.

What we have to do is make sure we get every one of our "depressed" base voters out and activate the casual voters and the next batch of first-time voters who share our views and helped us sweep the field in '06 and '08.

That'll take phone calls, door knocks and, unfortunately, lots of money for TV ads, mailers and campaign swag.

So block out time - lots of time - to do the work, slap a bumper sticker on your car and open your check book.

Time to get back to work...

A youth told me (0.00 / 0)
that youths expected Guantanamo to be closed by the end of Obama's first year in office, Healthcare to be reformed, and Democratic Majorities in the House and Senate to reverse the 8 year course of our country. What's to bring them back to work on electing Democrats?  Jes asking. They don't care as much about Healthcare tanking, they are young and healthy. The idea that they are being handed differed taxes, with interest, to pay for the excesses of the Bush years, really pisses them off. How they can save for a home, while paying college loans, and the cost of paying off our deficit ? I'll never know.

We seriously need to to do more voter outreach, to those beyond our traditional base. In most of the country that would mean outreach to Hispanic voters who are the fastest growing voter block. They want, and were promised by Obama comprehensive Immigration Reform. That too seems to have died with the ascension of #41. There will be hell to pay. Perhaps not here in NH, but nationwide yes. NH-erites are hot-wired to continue to work, and work we will.

5

[ Parent ]
You think it's depressed now? (4.00 / 2)
Wait 'till health care reform fails.  Wait until EFCA gets re-written by corporate lobbyists intent on emasculating the bill.  Cap & trade fail.  The NLRB is operating with just two (out of 5) commissioners because of blocks and filibusters, and dozens of other admin nominees are on hold.    

I'll say it again.  There's nothing dishonorable about trying to change the tone in DC - but it aint working.  Negotiation 101 tells us that both sides must be amenable to a deal...in this case, it is in the best interests of both sides to get something done (or not done) without a deal.  

Is anyone in charge paying attention?

Gov. Wilder's Opinion (0.00 / 0)
An interesting screed posted on Politico from former Virginia governor (and early Obama supporter) Doug Wilder touches on your concern.
[ Parent ]
Is 155 Registered Voters Even a Poll? | 5 comments

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