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Maybe it's just me, but I'm expecting a Granite State Poll out this week that shows fairly tight races - within the MoE, so that Smith has fall back position.
It looked like Smith was under-sampling Dems and the youth vote, but I had no idea how much until I read that 18-29 year olds voted at 26% in 2006. Smith sampled them at 8%! According to Tufts Universty, young people vote for Ds by 58 - 38, and the Hill poll had CSP winning the youth vote by 45 points.
After all that bluff and bluster, after all those misleading ads from hate groups, and even with a typically pro-GOP UNH sample, Johnny Stephen is still turning out to be (.pdf) 2010's version of... what was that fellow's name again?
John Lynch: 51%
John Stephen 37%
Undecided: 9%
Other: 3%
709 respondents, 10/7-10/12, MoE +/-3.7
Is it mixing metaphors to stick a fork in a donut?
Oh, and: thanks to the careful stewardship of John Lynch and the Democratic majorities in House and Senate during this Great Recession, New Hampshire saw its unemployment drop yet again last month to 5.5%, among the lowest rates in the nation (release below the fold).
The UNH Survey Center felt the need to re-issue their earlier poll, apparently. Their new poll has literally all the flaws of their last one and even exaggerates them - like taking the youth vote down to 7% of the electorate from the historical 12-16%. The only positive adjustment was increasing the sample size.
In the latest entry in an ongoing series, the UNH Survey Center has some very funky numbers in their latest polling (all slanting to Ayotte's advantage, of course). Their sample size and poll composition tell one story: They're still living in Cloud Hampshire.
PPP's latest polling in NH had a better margin of error than UNH, stole UNH's narrative setting thunder to some extent, and had the right-wing crying foul over the twin realities that Hodes is actually a lot closer to Ayotte than they want to believe, and that Sarah Palin is a general election albatross.
All of which is going to make today's news that Daily Kos has decided to go with PPP for new polling perfect future fodder for my new Shrill of the Day seies.
Of course, PPP is one of the most credible and accurate pollsters out there, but that's not going to temper the shrill.
See, in order for Landrigan to notice, a Democrat has to be ahead in the polls:
Shea-Porter has received plenty of free media attention following a trip to the Middle East and getting several spending projects for the district through the U.S. House.
Too much can be read into all the numbers when the margin of error in the congressional district races is plus or minus 6 percent.
It's worth noting that the Bass leads over Swett, 17 points, and Kuster, 18 points, are well outside that, however.
Note the re-hash, too, of the unbelievable "free media" line.
I repeat: it is a minor miracle that Democrats are able to get a foothold in this state given the prevailing media paradigm.
"Kuster again is largely unknown," Smith said. "Eighty-five percent of those polled don't know anything about her. They can't even say if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her."
But the poll also indicates that while Bass has strong recognition, his unfavorable ratings have climbed sharply since February. Currently, 34 percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of him, but 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion, with 33 percent neutral or saying they don't know enough to say.
Bass' zero percent net favorability is down sharply from his 25 percent net favorability in February.
To recap:
1) Folks don't know Annie's name yet. That's where you come in.
2) Folks know six-termer Bass' name. Yet he still can't crack 50% in matchups.
3) The more folks remember the man behind the name Bass, they less they like him.
Over to you, DCCC!
Actually, there is one more thing to know about this poll when look at the .pdf: Swett's net favorability is down 1% to -5%, while Kuster's is +8%.
Since the current state media paradigm demands serious attention to polls with over 6 percent MoE's, I might as well point out things in it (.pdf) not highlighted by Smith's spin.
In just a two month span, Charlie Bass' favorability ratings have tanked 12 points, while his unfavorability is up 6.
That's a significant souring on him. The more the public remembers this virtual incumbent and his Bush enabling record, as well as when they witness his pathetic clinging to the Tea Party, it will continue to go down, I suspect.
1) In pretty much all the matchups, it's clear that the Democratic base is depressed. If nothing else happened other than that the D percentages matched the R ones (and there's lots of other positive things that can happen with undecideds and undeclareds besides), this poll would have an entirely different narrative. So, good thing there's lots of time between now and November, though that time will only matter if President Obama and Congressional Democrats understand their base problem now. With the seemingly daily Tom and Jerry theatre between Republicans and the White House, however, I'm not sure they do get it.
2) Just by way of an example (though others would suffice too), I spent some time poking around the CSP-Guinta macthup. UNH polled 155 registered voters for that one. Is 155 people even a poll?
The favorable/unfavorable numbers from the Research 2000 poll last week were interesting:
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
55 38 7 - Barack Obama
38 49 13 - Democratic Party
32 54 14 - Republican Party
Now the same, but only with self-described independents:
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
56 37 7 - Barack Obama
34 47 19 - Democratic Party
27 52 21 - Republican Party
So the President is popular in New Hampshire (despite what UNH claims), Democrats less so, and Republicans least of all. What I take away from this poll, then, is that Obama's new, more prominent presence in moving forward the agenda Americans voted for is a step in the right direction. However, it also tells me that he and the Democratic majority in Congress are wasting time with bi-partisan theatre. Pass the big stuff, sign the big stuff, campaign on the big stuff. Show picture of Congresscritter next to President, with caption that they did stuff and made our lives better. Independents notice that President, whom they like, with the help of Democrats, whom they're not sure about, did stuff and made their lives better, while Republicans opposed everything.
Just got results back from NH-Sen poll. GOP primary is looking VERY interesting.
about 8 hours ago from TweetDeck
I love he timing of this, hampering, as it will, UNH's ability to define the race narrative on its own terms.
Markos uses Research 2000 for his polling, btw, the same firm the Concord Monitor has employed, and one that has a good track record of using accurate voter id samples in the state.
Carol Shea-Porter busy working for us (full releases below the fold):
UNH Institute on Disability to Receive Funds Shea-Porter Secured
Shea-Porter Announces $400,000 for Brownfield Sites Clean-Up
Shea-Porter Helps Pass Korean War Veterans Recognition Act
That first one is key, as it would not have happened without the singular efforts of our hardworking Congresswoman, and at a time when UNH is struggling to meet its budgetary needs.
(Another Andy Smith production, no doubt. You can be sure we will pick apart the sampling on this, as we always do. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Real Clear Politics just posted a poll from UNH that has Ayotte beating Hodes by 4%...
Hmmm this poll looks highly questionable. I also highly doubt that Tausch would get 25% in a Hodes match up and at the same time have 5/4 Fav/Unfav ratings. Does anyone really know who he is?
I hope this turns out to be inaccurate, but either way, I think this is a really good time to Act Blue.
More (Dean): Are you kidding me? This is the sloppiest sample yet. Check out the latest version of Cloud Hampshire's Hodes' v. Ayotte sample (from the .pdf):
In a UNH poll conducted between 4/13 and 4/22 with about 500 sample size (in other words, likely the same operation done here and here), John E. Sununu is shown to be besting Paul Hodes 46%-41%, with 11% undecided and 2% for someone else.
That's a fascinating result for the Sununu Dynasty to chew on as they decree whether or no The Younger shall be the nominee - on Cloud Hampshire.
When you add up the 111 registered Democrats, 137 registered Republicans, and 185 registered Undeclareds who were polled on this match-up, you get a remarkable picture of this fantasy state. Let's compare it with the most recent data - November 2008 - from a real place that has elections called New Hampshire.
On Cloud Hampshire, Democrats make up only 25.63% of the electorate, Republicans dominate with 31.63% of the share, and the remaining 42.72% are Undeclared.
In New Hampshire, Democrats are actually the party in the driver's seat, with 29.44% of the people's choice, followed closely by Republicans with 29.26%. Undeclareds round it out with 41.27%
In Cloud-Cuckoo-Land, the Sprinter has a chance. Here on earth, with 2% less Republicans and almost 4% more Democrats, it's harder to say.
Also on Cloud Hampshire, young voters (ages 18-34) are picking Hodes over Sununu by 9 points (47%-38%) - wow! What a pity that in the clouds, people aged 18-34 only make up 9.75% of the voting electorate. Now I know that young people are the hardest to get to the polls, but sheesh, Cloud Hampshire, you have a serious civics problem there. Especially since in a real place called the United States of America, exit polls show that 52% of voters aged 18-29 turned out for the election. I'm guessing that translates into something a little higher than 9.75%. And in fact, a little bird tells me, voters age 18-29 made up 17% of the electorate in NH-Sen for 2008. I wonder what 18-34 would be?
Andy Smith and the Survey Center at UNH have a new poll out today asking about voter opinion on current 'hot button' issues: medical marijuana, seat belts, gender discrimination.
But with Smith's polls, it's always a good idea to start with the sample.
They surveyed 501 voters (using the breakdown for the question on parental notification). Of that group, 122 were Democrats and 145 were Republicans - the rest Undeclared.
I'm not sure what community this poll reflects. Not New Hampshire 2008, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. Perhaps Ohio? Perhaps New Hampshire of 2002?
If I knew just what this particular sample was supposed to represent, the results might be worth looking at.
A California advocacy group that tracks student loans said last October that the average debt level of New Hampshire college and university graduates in 2007 was $25,211, second highest in the country.
I'm well past my undergrad, and grad school days. My student loans at the time, while necessary, were outrageous. Today they seem like peanuts.
And I'm still paying them off with no end in sight.
When the elites on CNBC and elsewhere wonder why no one can spend right now, maybe it's because we have generations of Americans in their 20s, 30s, 40s, who fork over a much greater percentage of their paycheck to debt servicing on student loans, car loans, mortgages, and credit card balances than, say, thirty years ago. And what's left goes to out-of-control health care costs and rising food prices.
The breadth and scope and sheer activity coming out of the new Administration toward the economy is hugely welcome, and a sea change from Bush, who gave us about two years of drift following another six of an activist government frighteningly hostile to ordinary Americans. This, for example, is a sight for sore eyes.
But I'm still waiting for them to internalize the ongoing emergency that Americans are drowning in personal debt, a danger to the American Dream far greater than the budget deficit or the daily Dow Jones roller coasters. That the next wave of economic hardship, accelerated by cascading unemployment, will roll off of home foreclosures and move into credit card defaults.
That there are Senate Democrats who are more concerned about returning the wealthy to Reagan-era tax rates than a drowning middle class debt is infuriating.
Obligatory seat belt use in cars is a societal norm in the United States of America. At some time in the future a tipping point will be reached where it will seem freakish to a majority of Granite Staters that we are behind that curve.
Well, is two-thirds a tipping point? Those are the numbers Andy Smith is citing (FWIW) in a new poll:
This month's poll showed that 64 percent of New Hampshire adults support a mandatory seatbelt law. Democrats, women and folks who are relatively new to the state are most likely to back such a new law; Republicans, men, folks under 29, families that make less than $30,000 and the unmarried are most likely to oppose, according to an analysis by the Survey Center's Andy Smith and Tracy Fowler.
The same poll (which surveyed 619 New Hampshire adults) found that 68 percent of adults say they always buckle up (6 percent never do). Of the fickle bucklers, 64 percent said they would wear it more if they were legally required to.
